Market Outlook

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U.S. 2022/23 Rice Production Forecast Raised to 176.0 Million Cwt

There were two supply-side revisions this month to the U.S. all-rice 2022/23 rice balance sheet. First, the carryin was lowered 0.5 million cwt to 41.5 million due to smaller imports in 2021/22. Second, the U.S. 2022/23 crop forecast was raised 1.5 million cwt to 176.0 million based on a higher reported yield. On the 2022/23 use side, there was a 2.0-million cwt switch from rough-rice to milled rice exports, with total export remaining forecast at 79.0 million cwt. These revisions raised the 2022/23 ending stocks forecast 1.0 million cwt to 36.5 million. Season-average farm price (SAFP) forecasts for 2022/23 were raised for both classes of rice, with the all-rice SAFP raised to a record $18.80 per cwt.

In the global rice market, 2022/23 production was lowered 2.3 million tons to 512.4 million tons (milled basis) but still second only to the year-earlier record. India, Bangladesh, and the European Union account for most of the downward production revision. The 2022/23 global consumption and residual use forecast was increased fractionally to 518.7 million tons, the highest on record. Global ending stocks for 2022/23 are forecast at 178.5 million tons, 4.2 million tons below the previous forecast and the third consecutive year of a decline. India accounts for most of this month’s downward revision in global stocks.