Market Outlook

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U.S. 2024/25 Rice Plantings Indicated at 2.93 Million Acres

Based on a survey conducted during the first 2 weeks of March, U.S. rice growers intend to plant 2.93 million acres of rice in 2024/25, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain is indicated to increase 11.5 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, growers indicated a 24-percent decline in combined medium- and short-grain plantings to 632,000 acres, with the South accounting for most of the decline.

There were no supply-side revisions this month to the 2023/24 U.S. rice balance sheet. Total supplies of in 2023/24 remain projected at 291.5 million hundredweight (cwt), up 51.9 million cwt from a year earlier and the highest since 2016/17. On the use side, total exports are raised 3.0 million cwt to 91.0 million, with long-grain raised 4.0 million cwt to 70.0 million and combined medium- and short-grain lowered 1.0 million to 21.0 million cwt. In addition, all-rice total domestic and residual use is lowered 5.0 million cwt to 157.0 million, still the highest on record, with long-grain accounting for all of the reduction. The substantial revision to the long-grain domestic and residual use forecast was largely based on implied use for December‒February indicated by the estimated March 1 rice stocks. The combination of a weaker domestic and residual use forecast and stronger exports raised ending stocks 2.0 million cwt to 43.5 million.

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