Climate-Induced Yield Changes and TFP: How Much R&D Is Necessary To Maintain the Food Supply?

by Jayson Beckman, Fengxia Dong, Maros Ivanic, Jonas Jägermeyr, and Nelson Villoria

Increasing agricultural productivity is vital to ensure that global food demand can be met. However, the impact of a changing climate on temperatures and precipitation could potentially influence agricultural productivity by affecting crop yields. This report combines the latest estimates of climate-induced yield changes in crops of corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat with projections of future total factor productivity (TFP)—a measure of the efficiency with which agricultural inputs are combined to produce output. The study finds that increasing TFP—with the research and development (R&D) this requires—could mitigate yield decreases.

Keywords: agricultural productivity, Total Factor Productivity, TFP, climate change, crop yields (bushels per acre), corn, soybean, rice, wheat, trade

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