Market Outlook

See the latest Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report.

Supplies in U.S. Citrus Market Forecast to be Record Low

The 2021/22 U.S. citrus crop is forecast to be 6 million tons, down 13 percent from the final output for the 2020/21 season. Declines in overall production are due to smaller orange and grapefruit crops in California, Florida, and Texas, and smaller mandarin crops in California and Florida. All orange production in the State of California is expected to decline by 5 percent, split between 4 percent reduction in non-Valencia orange production (navel and early/mid-season varieties) and a 9 percent reduction in Valencia oranges from last season. The Florida all orange supply forecast dropped by 5 percent from the February 2022 forecast and is expected to be 22 percent below last season. Orange supply is expected to be below levels of 2017/18 when Hurricane Irma hit Florida. Decreased production of oranges, grapefruit, and tangerines are expected to result in increased imports and higher prices compared to last year.