ERS Charts of Note
Subscribe to our Charts of Note series, which highlights economic research and analysis on agriculture, food, the environment, and rural America. Each week, this series highlights charts of interest from current and past ERS research.
At the end of the year, users can look forward to our Editors’ Picks of the Best of Charts of Note.
Thursday, September 5, 2024
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, will decrease by $16.3 billion (9.6 percent) to $154.1 billion in 2024. This would come after an NCFI decrease of $52.9 billion (23.7 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $223.3 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $10.2 billion (6.8 percent) to $140.0 billion in 2024. This reduction follows a drop of $43.3 billion (22.4 percent) in NFI in 2023 from an all-time high of $193.5 billion in 2022 (after adjusting for inflation). Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Despite these declines, if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would stay above their respective 2004–23 averages in 2024. Underlying these forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $23.3 billion (4.3 percent) to $516.5 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. However, a $16.2 billion (3.4 percent) reduction in production expenses is expected to moderate the overall decline. Find additional information and analysis on the ERS Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page, reflecting data released on September 5, 2024.
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
In 2023, 13.5 percent of U.S. households (18.0 million households) were food insecure at some time during the year, meaning they had difficulty providing enough food for all their members because of a lack of resources. The prevalence of food insecurity in 2023 was statistically significantly higher than the 12.8 percent recorded in 2022. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) monitors the food security status of households in the United States through an annual nationwide survey. Very low food security is a more severe form of food insecurity in which the food intake of some household members was reduced and normal eating patterns were disrupted sometime during the year. The 2023 prevalence of very low food security among households was 5.1 percent (6.8 million households), unchanged from the 5.1 percent in 2022. This chart appears on the ERS Key Statistics & Graphics page and in the ERS report Household Food Security in the United States in 2023, published September 4, 2024.
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
In 2024, an estimated 824.6 million people, equivalent to 19.0 percent of the population included in the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA), are projected to be unable to access the 2,100 calories per day considered necessary for a healthy and active lifestyle. This represents a decrease of 313 million people from the 2023 estimate for the 83 low- and middle-income countries covered in the food security assessment. However, food insecurity is projected to remain elevated in many countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it is estimated to affect 29.3 percent of the region’s population. In 2024, average annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for income, is estimated at $2,483 in IFSA countries. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa it is estimated to be $1,387, the lowest of the five IFSA regions. Although food prices are projected to ease globally in 2024, domestic prices remain high in many Sub-Saharan African countries, making it difficult for consumers to access sufficient calories. While most countries will see a decrease in staple grain prices, countries relying heavily on imported rice (like many in West Africa) are projected to experience price increases following export restrictions implemented by India in July 2023. In addition to economic factors, military conflict and political instability are associated with high food insecurity rates in the region. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report International Food Security Assessment, 2024-34, released in August 2024.
Thursday, August 29, 2024
U.S. dairy farms vary widely in size, from small (fewer than 50 cows) to large (2,000 or more cows). While many factors can influence a dairy farm’s production cost per unit of milk, such as technology use, management, and input prices paid, farm size can also affect costs. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the cost of milk production by dairy herd size based on dairy-specific versions of the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), which are conducted every 5 to 6 years. Costs include operating expenditures, such as feed and veterinary care, and allocated overhead costs, such as buildings, equipment, labor, and land, some of which are economic opportunity costs. Based on the past 5 ARMS dairy surveys, the average total production cost per 100 pounds of milk sold has been consistently lower for dairy farms with larger herd sizes than for those with smaller herd sizes. In 2021, the average total cost per 100 pounds of milk sold was $42.70 for herds with fewer than 50 cows, while for farms with 2,000 or more cows, the cost was $19.14. Increased costs by year reflect the reporting of nominal, not inflation-adjusted costs. Lower per unit production costs for larger dairy farms are attributable at least partly to the ability to spread some expenses over greater output and to greater adoption of advanced technologies, management practices, and production systems. For more information, see the ERS report Structure, Costs, and Technology Used on U.S. Dairy Farms, published in July 2024.
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
In fiscal year (FY) 2023, USDA’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) served a monthly average of 42.1 million people in the 50 States and Washington, DC, representing 12.6 percent of the population. SNAP is the United States’ largest domestic nutrition assistance program, accounting for about two-thirds of USDA food and nutrition assistance spending in recent years. SNAP is available to most households with limited incomes and assets, subject to certain work and immigration status requirements. Participating households receive monthly benefits through an electronic benefit transfer card, which can be used like a debit card to buy food items at authorized retailers. SNAP participation varies across States, influenced by differences in the demographic characteristics of the population, program administration, and economic conditions. In FY 2023, the share of residents receiving SNAP benefits in each State ranged from as high as 23.1 percent in New Mexico to as low as 4.6 percent in Utah. In 34 States, the share was between 8 and 16 percent. This map appears in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Charting the Essentials, last updated in July 2024.
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
A quarter of all U.S. farm operations participated in USDA direct payment programs in 2022, meaning that they received at least some payment directly from USDA (no intermediaries involved). Data from the 2022 USDA Census of Agriculture show the share of operations that received some Federal payments (at a county level) were concentrated in the central United States. Conducted every 5 years by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the most recent census occurred during a year of historically high net farm income so commodity safety net programs—in place to make payments when prices or revenues are low—were not triggered for many commodities. Comparison with 2017 Census of Agriculture shows participation rates in Southwestern and Southern Great Plains counties, while not especially higher in 2022, were higher than those recorded in previous censuses. Meanwhile, participation in many Midwestern counties was lower than in previous censuses. Participation rates are based on receipt of direct payments and do not include crop insurance or loan program participation. Based on data from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, total payments in 2022 were $16.47 billion, more than 14 percent higher after adjusting for inflation than the $14.4 billion recorded in 2017. More than 70 percent of all USDA direct payments disbursed in 2022 were from supplemental and ad hoc relief for wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, winter storms, and other eligible disasters. This Chart of Note is drawn from the NASS 2022 Census of Agriculture. For more information about the farm sector and USDA programs, see the ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product and the ERS Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast topic page.
Monday, August 26, 2024
Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) examined cover crop use by cow-calf operations and found that more than half of producers who planted cover crops reported harvesting at least some of them. Harvesting cover crops on cow-calf operations is more likely in the Mississippi Portal and Northern Crescent regions and less likely in the Heartland region. Cow-calf operations might plant cover crops to improve soil quality on their cropland and then use the growing crop to provide feed for their cattle either by grazing the growing cover crop or harvesting the cover crop as haylage or silage to feed cattle later. In 2018–20, USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) asked producers how many acres of cover crops they harvested for forage or other on-farm use and how many acres of cover crops were not harvested. Data from the 2017 Census of Agriculture showed that about 11 percent of cow-calf operations reported using cover crops, with the highest rates of cover crop use occurring in the Northern Crescent and Heartland regions (18 percent of operations in both regions). Information on cover crop practices on cattle operations can be found in the ERS report Cover Crops on Livestock Operations: Potential for Expansion in the United States, published in May 2024.
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Inventories of turkey eggs in incubators—an indicator of the number of market birds that will be marketable in about five months—fell to their lowest level since 1988 on June 1, 2024, with 22.8 million eggs. Placements of newly hatched birds (called “poults”) in facilities to be raised to slaughter weight were down in June by 18 percent year-over-year, with February 2024 the only month since 2005 with lower placements. Turkey eggs incubated in June and then placed in July typically grow out in time to be slaughtered as fresh Thanksgiving birds in November. Declining June egg inventories and July placements suggest that the availability of fresh turkeys at Thanksgiving will be lower this year. While July and August poult placements were higher than June, they were down 9 to 10 percent year-over-year. However, supplies of frozen turkeys at Thanksgiving may not be an issue. Inventories of whole frozen hen turkeys (8–16 pounds) were up 16 percent year-over-year as of June 30, 2024. The turkey industry has suffered losses because of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, but the recent losses in breeding flocks occurred after falling inventories of eggs in incubators were reported, suggesting that reducing egg incubation and poult placements were not the direct result of the avian flu, but may have been production decisions. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service June 2024 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook and has been updated with recent data.
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
U.S. imports of animal fats (edible tallow, inedible tallow, lard, and poultry fats), greases, and processed oils—including used cooking oil—skyrocketed to nearly 5.0 billion pounds in 2023 from 2.2 billion pounds in 2022. This surge in imports has been driven by rising domestic production of biomass-based diesel (fuels derived from animal fats and vegetable oils) to meet U.S. Federal and State policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These policies sparked new demand for animal fats, processed oils, and grease and have boosted imports, especially processed oil imports commonly known as used cooking oil (UCO). Processed oil imports doubled to 3 billion pounds from 2022 to 2023 as China emerged as the top supplier. U.S. tallow imports also have increased, largely on expanded sourcing from Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. With stronger tallow and processed oil imports, the share of animal fats, waste oils, and greases as a portion of total oil and fat-related used in biomass-based diesel production has increased to 36 percent from 31 percent in 2021, while vegetable oil’s share has declined. As biofuel use continues growing, this structural shift in biomass-based diesel production and import markets is expected to affect the domestic use and trade flows of animal fats and vegetable oils. This chart is drawn from a Special Article in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook: July 2024. See also this Chart of Note on biomass-based diesel production, published August 8, 2024.
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
According to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020–2025, 80 percent of individuals consume less than the recommended amounts of fruit. One reason may be that some consumers think fruit is an expensive food item. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) calculated average consumer prices paid in 2022 for 62 fresh and processed fruits measured in cup equivalents. A cup equivalent is the edible portion that will generally fit in a 1-cup measuring cup for most fruits or one-half cup for raisins and other dried fruits. The recommended amount of fruit a person should eat per day depends on age, sex, and level of activity. For a 2,000-calorie diet, 2 cup equivalents of fruits per day is recommended. Fresh watermelon at 24 cents per cup equivalent and apple juice (made from concentrate) at 30 cents were the lowest priced fruits, while fresh blackberries ($2.25), fresh raspberries ($2.58), and canned cherries ($3.56) were the priciest. Thirty out of 62 fruits cost less than $1 per cup equivalent in 2022. The data in this chart are from the ERS Fruit and Vegetable Prices data product updated May 23, 2024.
Monday, August 19, 2024
The rates of adoption for cover crops vary across regions and the way land is managed. To illustrate this, researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) depicted the geographic variation of survey data collected for corn-growing fields in 2021. Land in the Heartland region had adoption rates of around 10 percent for all owner-operated, cash-rented, and share-rented fields. Land in the Northern Great Plains and Prairie Gateway regions had adoption rates of around 4 percent for owner-operated fields and 11 percent for cash-rented fields. The rest of the country (any land outside of the Heartland, Great Plains, and Prairie Gateway Resource regions) had 30 percent cover crop adoption for fields operated by owner-operators and 16 percent of fields operated by cash renters, respectively. No surveyed share-rented fields in the “rest of the country” region adopted cover crops. According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, there were 18.0 million acres of cover crops planted in 2022, a number that has grown over the last decade. More information on land leasing can be found in the ERS report Farmland Rental and Conservation Practice Adoption, published in March 2024.
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Potatoes are grown throughout the United States, but the proportion of distinct potato varieties varies in the top 13 potato-producing States. The versatile Russet potato—used for baking, mashing, and frying—is the most popular variety and accounts for about 70 percent of planted acres each year. Russets make up a majority share of potato acreage in northern growing States, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine, where the variety is well-suited for the cooler climate. White potatoes—grown for use in fresh and chip processing markets—typically account for one-fifth of area planted to potatoes and are second in popularity. In Michigan, white potatoes consistently account for a higher percentage of planted acreage because of demand from chip-producing plants in the State. Red, blue, and yellow varieties account for the smallest share of acreage planted to potatoes and are primarily grown for the fresh market. Differences in the proportion of potato varieties can be attributed to many factors, including consumer demand, crop rotation limitations, seed availability, and industry demand for specific varieties of processing potatoes. In 2024, the United States is forecast to plant 941,000 acres of potatoes, which would be a 2-percent decrease from 2023. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, released in July 2024.
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
On average, all adults aged 20 and over consume more added sugars than recommended, but those with some college education average lower-added sugar intake than those with less education, according to USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) and University of Georgia researchers. The researchers examined sugar consumption based on density (teaspoons consumed per 1,000 calories) using the latest available national food consumption survey data collected in 2017–18. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend added-sugar intake be limited to no more than 10 percent of caloric intake, which amounts to a density of 5.95 teaspoons for every 1,000 calories based on a 2,000 calorie daily intake. Among adults aged 20 and older, there were notable differences in added-sugar consumption by education achievement level. In 2017–18, foods consumed by adults who attended or graduated college contained 7.24 teaspoons of added sugar per 1,000 calories, compared with 8.37 for those with less than a high school degree and 8.52 teaspoons for high school graduates who did not attend college. For the overall population 2 years and older, added-sugar densities dropped from 8.51 in 2009–10 to 7.90 in 2017–18. Despite the decline in density of added sugars in U.S. consumers’ diets in this time frame, the average intake across all groups remained above recommendations. These data appear in the ERS report Dietary Quality by Food Source and Demographics in the United States, 1977–2018, published in March 2023.
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Energy payments to farm operations increased with the number of acres owned. These payments are compensation received by landowners for energy development such as from oil, natural gas, wind, or solar that occurs on their farmland. Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) used USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey data to find the average annual payment made for energy development between 2011 and 2020 to farm operators based on acreage owned. Those who owned more than 1,000 acres received an average yearly payment of $56,797. Those who owned fewer than 100 acres received an average of $12,351, less than a quarter of payments made to the largest farms. Higher payments to larger farms are associated with owners having large tracts of land preferred for energy development. More than 13 percent of farm landowners with greater than 1,000 acres received energy payments between 2011 and 2020, compared with less than 2 percent of landowners with fewer than 100 acres. Read more about the size, frequency, trends, and relative contribution of energy payments to farm operator income in the ERS report The Role of Commercial Energy Payments in Agricultural Producer Income, released in April 2024.
Monday, August 12, 2024
The 2022 Census of Agriculture shows that farms operated by a producer with military service generated 9 percent of the U.S. agricultural production value in 2022. These producers are located throughout the United States but are mainly concentrated in the eastern half of the country. The Census of Agriculture is conducted every five years by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and collects characteristics on up to four producers per farm operation. Producers with military service are defined as those who are currently on active duty or have served on active duty in the past. These producers accounted for 9.1 percent of all U.S. farm operators in 2022, down from 10.9 percent in the 2017 Census of Agriculture. Farms and ranches that have operators with military service produced, on average, about $170,000 per farm in 2022, compared with an average of $286,000 per farm for all operations. Information about farm businesses can be found in USDA, Economic Research Service’s America’s Farms and Ranches at a Glance.
Thursday, August 8, 2024
U.S. Federal and State policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have encouraged the production of biofuels, which are derived from crops, vegetable oils, and animal fats. One type of biofuel is biomass-based diesel, which includes mainly biodiesel and renewable diesel. With expansion of the Renewable Volume Obligations under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuels Standard program as well as State programs, the capacity to make renewable diesel has grown significantly, driving an increase in total biomass-based diesel production from 1.8 billion gallons in 2016 to 4.6 billion gallons in 2023. The use of animal fats (edible and inedible tallow, lard, and poultry fats) and greases, including used cooking oil (known as “UCO”), in producing biomass-based diesel increased to nearly 12 billion pounds in 2023. Use of animal fats, waste oils, and greases accounted for 37 percent of total feedstocks used for biomass-based diesel production in 2023, compared with 17 percent in 2020. The increasing share of animal fats, waste oils, and greases corresponds with a declining share of vegetable oils (soybean, canola, and corn) in biomass-based diesel production. The rising use of animal fats, waste oils, and grease (including used cooking oil) has boosted U.S. import demand for those products, especially used cooking oil. Used cooking oil imports reached more than 3 billion pounds in 2023, compared with 0.9 billion pounds in 2022. This chart is drawn from a Special Article in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook: July 2024.
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Commercial banks and the Farm Credit System together held about 80 percent of farm real estate debt during the last 11 years, making them the primary lenders to the U.S. agricultural sector. In 2022, the Farm Credit System—a nationwide network of borrower-owned lending institutions and specialized service organizations—provided almost half of all the real estate loans made to the sector, and commercial banks provided 32 percent of agricultural real estate loans. USDA’s Farm Service Agency provides loans directly to producers and in 2022 accounted for less than 4 percent of real estate loans. Other lenders include life insurance companies (7 percent), individuals and others (5 percent), and storage facility loans (less than 1 percent). Farmer Mac, which, like the Farm Credit System, is a Government-sponsored enterprise created by Congress to bring capital to agricultural markets, accounted for about 3 percent of total loans. This chart updates information in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Debt Use by U.S. Farm Businesses, 2012–2021, published in June 2024.
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
The nutritional quality of foods obtained from restaurants and fast food versus food prepared at home differs, with implications for meeting dietary recommendations. Researchers from USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) and the University of Georgia used the latest available national food consumption survey data, collected in 2017–18, to examine differences in diet patterns by food source based on density, which is the amount of food consumed per 1,000 calories. They compared average consumption densities with what would be needed to match the Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommendations, assuming a 2,000-calorie daily intake. Foods from restaurants and fast-food places were lower in several nutrients—including fiber, calcium, and iron—and higher in saturated fat and sodium than food prepared at home in terms of density. Foods from restaurant and fast food places were also less dense in fruits, dairy, whole grains, nuts, seeds, and soy products and more dense in refined grains. On the other hand, restaurant foods were lower in added sugars and richer in vegetables, meats, poultry, eggs, and seafood relative to food prepared at home. Qualitative differences between foods from restaurants and fast-food places and food at home remain important considerations for policies and strategies designed to improve diet and health. This chart appears in the ERS report Dietary Quality by Food Source and Demographics in the United States, 1977–2018, published March 2023.
Monday, August 5, 2024
Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) studied the land cover associated with 34,073 wind turbines installed on rural land between 2012 and 2020. Nationwide, they found that around 96 percent of wind turbines were installed on cropland (56 percent) or pasture-rangeland (40 percent). In the Midwest, 94 percent of wind turbines were installed on cropland. In the Plains, sites were almost equally split between cropland (49 percent) and pasture-rangeland (50 percent). In the West, 69 percent were located on pasture-rangeland and 27 percent on cropland. The Atlantic was the only region with a large share on nonagricultural land; 75 percent were located on forest land. However, only a small share of turbines was in the Atlantic (3 percent), and fewer than 1,000 turbines were on land categorized as forest. Read about the expansion of wind and solar in rural areas of the contiguous United States, the regional distribution of renewable energy development, and the land cover change associated with development in the ERS report Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Development in Rural Areas: Land Cover Change (2009–20), released in April 2024.
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Crop and livestock insurance payouts were substantially higher in the Great Plains and Mountain regions, according to data from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s 2022 Census of Agriculture. Over the period from 2017 to 2022, insurance payouts in these regions were mostly driven by losses from weather-related events. According to U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program historical cause of loss data from USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA), producers in the Great Plains States of Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma experienced substantial losses from drought over the period from 2017 to 2022. Of the acreage in that region covered by crop insurance, 58 percent received payouts because of drought loss. Excessive moisture also contributed to production challenges and associated payouts in the Great Plains, and 19 percent of insured acres received payouts because of that issue. In the Mountain Region—Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada—producers received drought-related payouts for 73 percent of covered acres. A combination of losses from drought and, separately, low temperatures resulted in higher insurance payments across the Nation in 2022. After adjusting for inflation, the national average crop and livestock insurance payment for 2022 was $52,819 per operation. This was up 41 percent from the $37,388 average payment per operation in the 2017 census but down 19 percent from the record high of $65,088 in 2012, underscoring the fluctuating dynamics of weather-related insurance payments. The number of operations receiving payment also rose in 2022, to 107,409 (6 percent of the U.S. total) from 103,060 operations (5 percent) in 2017. For more information, see the USDA, Economic Research Service topic page Crop Insurance at a Glance and the Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product.