ERS Charts of Note
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Friday, May 13, 2022
On February 8, 2022, the first case of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) since 2015 was detected in a commercial turkey operation in Indiana. Soon thereafter, HPAI cases were confirmed at commercial operations growing broilers (chickens grown for meat), turkeys, and egg-layers. Because HPAI can spread quickly, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) depopulates flocks at operations where infections have been detected. Though the outbreak spread slowly in February, the number of HPAI cases increased rapidly in March, just ahead of Easter, when U.S. egg producers often expand their flocks to meet the demand for the upcoming holiday. As of May 2, HPAI outbreaks have been reported in 164 commercial poultry operations, including 18 egg-laying facilities. Commercial egg-laying hens represent a majority of the birds affected. On April 1, the U.S. table-egg layer flock was estimated at 305.2 million, reflecting, in part, the 16.9 million birds lost to HPAI in March 2022. APHIS reported that an additional 10.7 million layers were affected in April 2022. As of May 2, more than 29 million layers had been lost to HPAI. During the largest U.S. HPAI outbreak, in 2014–15, the industry lost 43 million egg layers. At the time the first major cases of the 2022 outbreak in commercial egg layers were confirmed, flock sizes were already smaller than in previous years, including their 2017–19 pre-pandemic levels. This chart first appeared in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, April 2022.
Thursday, May 12, 2022
During 2020, U.S. households spent 14.5 percent more money to buy meat for at-home consumption as compared with 2019. This increase in spending reflected both an increase in the amount of meat households bought from retailers to offset reductions in what households previously consumed at restaurants and higher retail food prices. Using scanner data from Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers examined and compared U.S. households’ meat purchases in 2020 and 2019 to answer this question: If retail prices for at-home meats had remained at their 2019 levels throughout 2020, how much better off economically would U.S. households have been? Researchers estimated the amount of “welfare loss,” or reduction in U.S. households’ well-being, by determining how much more money would be needed to buy meat in response to retail price changes and be satisfied. Despite maintaining their overall level of meat consumption, U.S. households’ welfare losses in 2020 from increases in retail meat prices were largest during the late spring and early summer when operations at meat-packing plants were most affected by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Those losses peaked at $24.51 per household in June 2020. Higher prices that month for beef accounted for welfare losses of $8.30 per household, for poultry the losses were $8.18 per household, and for pork the losses were $7.07 per household. In December 2020, U.S. household welfare losses were down to $6.19 per household, with higher prices for beef, poultry, and pork accounting for $2.44, $1.89, and $1.54, respectively. This chart appears in the ERS report Quantifying Consumer Welfare Impacts of Higher Meat Prices During the COVID-19 Pandemic, released April 2022.
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
From 2007 to 2019, labor force participation rates (the percentage of the population that is working or actively looking for work) decreased 2.6 percentage points for people aged 25 to 64 in the rural United States and 0.7 percentage point for the same age group in urban areas. The larger decrease in rural participation reflects a slower recovery in those areas after the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009. Labor force participation rates for people aged 25 to 64 decreased again from 2019 to 2020 due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic but decreased less in rural counties than in urban counties (rural 0.6 percentage point vs. urban 1 percentage point). Rates declined the most from 2019 to 2020 for people aged 16 to 24 and fell the most in that age group in urban counties. In 2021, labor force participation rates for each age group remained below pre-pandemic (2019) levels in rural and urban counties and even decreased below 2020 levels for people aged 25 to 64 in rural areas and for people 65 and over in urban and rural areas. In 2021, the labor force participation rate for people aged 16 to 24 in rural counties rebounded compared with 2020. This chart was drawn from the Rural Employment and Unemployment data page, updated March 29, 2022.
Friday, May 6, 2022
When management practices degrade a natural resource used in farming to the degree that its sustainability or intended use is impaired, then a given land unit is said to have a resource concern. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has identified 47 specific resource concerns affecting crop fields in the United States. ERS researchers classified the soil and water resource concerns from this list into seven broad categories in USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). These seven broad concerns are on-field water quality, low organic matter, poor drainage, soil compaction, wind-driven erosion, water-driven erosion, and other concerns. Cotton, wheat, oat, and soybean farmers were asked to report if they were experiencing one or multiple of the seven categories of concerns on the fields surveyed by ARMS between 2015 and 2018. Overall, farmers represented across these surveys reported that 49 percent of their fields had at least one resource concern and 26 percent of their fields had two or more concerns. The percentages of fields with at least one self-reported resource concern varied by region. Resource concerns were most common in the Midwest, the largest region by the number of fields, and were least common in the South. Farmers growing soybeans reported that about 51 percent of their fields have one or multiple resource concerns. Farmers growing durum wheat, which covers 2-5 percent of the total wheat area in the country, reported one or more resource concerns on about 40 percent of fields. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report “USDA Conservation Technical Assistance and Within-Field Resource Concerns,” published May 2022.
Wednesday, May 4, 2022
The benefits of agricultural exports to the U.S. economy far exceed the value of shipments alone. The production, processing, storage, transportation, and marketing of farm and food products bound for the export market support many full-time jobs throughout the United States. Related job statistics are estimated annually by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) by measuring the employment and output effects of trade in farm and food products. In 2020, U.S. agricultural exports supported the equivalent of more than 1.13 million jobs on and off the farm. With U.S. agricultural exports valued at more than $150 billion in 2020, every $1 billion of exports is estimated to create 7,550 jobs. Farm activities generated by U.S. exports—mainly crop and livestock production—supported a total of 439,500 jobs. These jobs included labor provided by farm operators and their family members, hired farmworkers, and contract workers. Off the farm, exports supported 423,900 total jobs in the services, trade, and transportation industries. Food-processing activities created 162,100 jobs, while other manufacturing activities, such as packaging, canning, and bottling, gave rise to 107,000 jobs. This chart is drawn from ERS’s Agricultural Trade Multiplier, released February 2022. See also the Amber Waves infographic, 2020 U.S. Agricultural Trade Multiplier for Soybeans.
Monday, May 2, 2022
U.S. consumers’ fondness for avocados has taken off since the early 2000s. From 2000 to 2021, the quantity of avocados available per person, a proxy for consumption, tripled to more than 8 pounds per person. The United States has produced an average of about 400 million pounds of avocados each year since 2000, but production has slowly declined since 2011 with a decline in U.S. avocado acreage. Imports have risen to support year-round demand. Imported avocados now account for 90 percent of the domestic supply compared with 40 percent in the early 2000s. In the 2020/21 marketing year, U.S. avocado imports reached a record high of 2.675 billion pounds. Mexico is the leading global producer of avocados, and the United States is the main destination for Mexico’s avocado exports. The United States imported an annual average of 2.25 billion pounds from Mexico in 2019–21 compared with 55 million pounds in 2001–03. From 2019–21, 88 percent of all shipments came from Mexico, while 7 percent came from Peru, 3 percent from the Dominican Republic, and 1 percent from Chile. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, March 2022.
Friday, April 29, 2022
In 2020, agricultural contracts governed the production of about 33 percent, by value, of all U.S. farm commodities. A contract is a legal agreement between a farmer and another person or firm to produce a specific type, quantity, and quality of crops or livestock. Farmers use contracts, with set pricing (or a pricing formula) or fees, instead of traditional cash sales to manage income risks. USDA, Economic Research Service identifies two types of agricultural contracts: marketing and production. Under marketing contracts, the ownership of commodities stays with the farmer during production. The contracts set a price or a pricing formula, product quantities and qualities, and a delivery schedule. Under production contracts, the contractor generally owns the commodity and provides inputs, services, production guidelines, and technical advice to the farmer. Relative to overall commodity production, marketing contracts and production contracts are equally used. However, crop farmers are more likely to use marketing contracts and livestock producers typically use production contracts. Marketing contracts represented 23 percent of all crop production in 2020. More than half the value of production of sugar beets, peanuts, and fruits was produced under marketing contracts in 2020, and less than 20 percent of soybeans, corn, and wheat production fell under marketing contracts. Production contracts represented 36 percent of all livestock production, including 76 percent of poultry and egg production, and 74 percent of hog production. Although marketing contracts are mostly used for crop production, a small percentage of poultry and eggs was produced using marketing contracts. Likewise, a small percentage of vegetable production occurred under production contracts even though most production contracts cover livestock. This chart was drawn from the Farm Structure and Contracting topic page, updated March 2022.
Wednesday, April 27, 2022
In the United States, soybean oil is frequently used for frying and making pastry crust flaky, among numerous other commercial food preparations. Soybean oil—produced by crushing soybeans and extracting the oil—is also used in the production of industrial products like fatty acid, animal feeds, biodiesel and increasingly, renewable diesel. As the most widely used vegetable oil, soybean oil use has typically accounted for over 50 percent of total domestic disappearance of all vegetable oil used in the United States. In early 2021, demand for biofuels increased—driven in part by Federal and State biofuels policy. Given the versatility of soybean oil and the limited supplies of substitute oils such as canola, sunflower, and palm oil, steady growth in food and industrial demand for soybean oil has caused domestic prices to rise. In March 2022, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service reported that average monthly soybean oil prices in Decatur, IL—a leading indicator market for soybean oil—had reached 76 cents per pound, more than 40 percent higher than a year earlier. Rising monthly prices have contributed to increases in the 2021/22 U.S. season-average soybean oil price, currently projected at $0.70 per pound, an increase of 23 percent, or 13 cents, from the prior marketing year. Higher prices have in turn supported increased soybean crush (processing) volumes. Consequently, domestic soybean oil supply is expected to grow to 28.8 billion pounds in 2021/22, up 6 percent from the year prior. This chart is drawn from USDA’s Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook, March 2022.
Monday, April 25, 2022
When people graze, their daily caloric intake and dietary quality may increase, but factors such as the time of day may make a difference. Recently, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers investigated whether grazing, or eating more than three times a day, affects total daily caloric intake and dietary quality as measured by USDA’s 2015 Healthy Eating Index (HEI). The results show grazing increased total daily caloric intake by 205 calories and increased the daily HEI score by 0.59 points. The HEI gauges diet quality by measuring how well a person’s diet conforms with recommendations in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The maximum score is 100, and a higher score reflects better diet quality. ERS researchers used 2 days of U.S. adult food intake data from the National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2007–18. These data capture detailed information about the types and amounts of food consumed in 2 non-consecutive days, as well as when each food was eaten. Researchers observed how dietary quality differed between morning and evening grazers. Individuals were defined as morning grazers if they reported more than two eating occasions between 3 a.m. and 2:59 p.m. Compared with people who did not graze at all, morning grazers increased their total daily caloric intake by 159 calories and increased the daily HEI score by 0.87 points. Individuals were defined as evening grazers if they reported more than one eating occasion between 3 p.m. and 2:59 a.m. Compared with not grazing, evening grazing increased daily caloric intake by 76 calories and decreased the daily HEI score by 0.41 points. This chart appears in the ERS’s Amber Waves article, “Grazing Increases Daily Caloric Intake and Dietary Quality”, published March 2022.
Friday, April 22, 2022
Beginning in February 2022, already elevated global wheat prices surged in the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, who together accounted for 28 percent of all wheat exports in marketing year 2020/21. Throughout the current marketing year (2021/22), tight supplies have been forecast for key exporting countries including Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Collectively for these countries, ending stocks are projected at the lowest level since the 2013/14 marketing year. For most of the current marketing year, tight supplies have supported relatively high global wheat prices. Those prices have been driven higher as commodity markets reflect uncertainty about not only the ability of Russia and Ukraine to continue exporting in coming months, but also the implications of the conflict on Ukraine’s spring planting which typically begins in March. Since the conflict began, U.S. export prices have risen for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW)—the two wheat classes that most directly compete with Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Average export prices for HRW were up 78 percent in March from the same month in 2021, and SRW prices were up 64 percent. U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS), typically the highest priced U.S. wheat, is currently priced lower than HRW and only slightly above SRW. Domestic transportation challenges and dry conditions in major HRW production areas have also underpinned U.S. prices and allowed major competitors to maintain a large pricing advantage. Most HRS exports are shipped out of the Pacific Northwest and are largely destined for Asian markets. Because HRS exports do not compete directly with Russia and Ukraine, the price reaction of this wheat class has been less extreme when compared with the more dramatic price reactions of the other classes. This chart first appeared in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Wheat Outlook, March 2022, and has been updated with recent data from the Wheat Outlook, April 2022.
Wednesday, April 20, 2022
In 2020, restaurants and other eating-out establishments received 27.9 cents of an average dollar spent on domestically produced food, called the food dollar. This marks a 15.7-percent drop from 33.1 cents in 2019 as consumers reduced food-away-from-home purchases and increased purchases from food-at-home markets at the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. All other industry group shares expanded except for three that had no annual change in 2020: Advertising, Energy, and Legal and accounting. Notably, the Retail trade (10.1 percent), Wholesale trade (9.2 percent), and Packaging (6.9 percent) shares increased by the largest percentages for their respective industry group since the data series began. The USDA Economic Research Service’s (ERS) annual Food Dollar Series provides insight into the industries that make up the U.S. food system and their contributions to total U.S. spending on domestically produced food. ERS uses input-output analysis to calculate the cost contributions from 12 industry groups in the food supply chain. Annual shifts in the food dollar shares between industry groups occur for a variety of reasons, including changes in the mix of foods consumers buy, costs of materials, ingredients, and other inputs, as well as changes in the balance of food at home and away from home. The industry group shares dollar chart is available for 1993 to 2020 and can be found in ERS’s Food Dollar Series data product, updated on March 17, 2022.
Monday, April 18, 2022
Agricultural output in the United States nearly tripled between 1948 and 2017, with average annual output growth at 1.53 percent. While reduction of labor hours worked has contributed negatively, changes in labor quality have contributed positively to output growth over the years. Labor quality includes shifts in composition of demographic attributes, such as gender, age, educational attainment, employment type and other factors. ERS researchers group the study period into 12 sub-periods in accordance with U.S. economic business cycles (from peak to peak). Most of the contraction in total hours worked occurred between 1948 and 1969, during the expansionary period after World War II. By the 2007–17 economic business cycle, the decline in labor hours had its lowest negative effect on output growth, -0.16 percentage points. ERS researchers found that total labor quality had a positive effect on output growth in all economic business cycles except the 1979-81 period. The effects of labor quality on agricultural output growth were especially prominent before 1969. It accounted for nearly 25 percent of total output growth per year in the 1948–53, 1953–57, and 1960–66 subperiods, and 14 percent of annual output growth in the 1966-69 subperiod. Except for the period immediately after WWII, the major source of labor quality changes was an increase in educational attainment among farmworkers. On average, the increase in educational attainment accounted for more than 90 percent of the changes in labor quality between 1948 and 2017. Nevertheless, since 1969, the rise in educational attainment has slowed, and the overall influence of labor quality on output growth has diminished. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report “Farm Labor, Human Capital, and Agricultural Productivity in the United States,” published Feb. 15, 2022.
Friday, April 15, 2022
Per capita red meat and poultry disappearance is expected to modestly decrease in 2022. While it is often used as a proxy measure for consumption, per capita meat disappearance is a measure of the supply available for use in domestic markets, including fresh and processed meat sold through grocery stores and used in restaurants. In aggregate, the forecast is driven by a decrease in total red meat disappearance (-0.30 percent) that more than offsets an increase in total poultry disappearance (+0.11 percent). Despite the fractional net decrease, the 2022 value is expected to reach a near record high, second to the previous high in 2021. Over the last decade (2012–21), per capita meat disappearance has generally been on an upward trend, with an overall increase of 22.5 pounds. The latest USDA forecast indicates that in 2022, U.S. consumers will have access to 224.6 pounds of red meat and poultry on a per capita retail weight basis. This forecast is 0.2 pounds lower than last year, and 10.3 pounds higher than the 2012–21 average. Looking at the main protein species, 2022 per capita disappearance for beef and pork is expected to decrease by 0.34 and 0.20 percent, respectively, because of lower livestock inventory. Disappearance for broilers and turkey is expected to increase by 0.11 and 0.35 percent, respectively. Sustained by a steady production growth trend, 2022 broiler disappearance adds to a decade-long stretch of year-over-year increases. The increase in turkey disappearance marks the first year of increase since 2016. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, March 2022 and has been updated with recent data.
Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Consumer spending at both full-service and quick-service restaurants initially fell following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, with noteworthy differences between the two. Before the pandemic (as of December 2019–February 2020), consumer spending at both quick-service and full-service restaurants was near or slightly above previous year levels. As of March–May 2020, spending at quick-service restaurants had dropped to about $20.1 billion, 15.4 percent lower than average spending a year earlier. Full-service restaurants experienced a more severe drop during this period, likely related to the mandates limiting in-person dining across much of the country. Spending fell to $7 billion, 51.7 percent lower than the year before. Quick-service restaurants recovered faster than full-service restaurants, with spending surpassing previous year levels for the last four months of 2020. In contrast, by the end of 2020, full-service restaurants retained a 24.8 percent drop in year-to-year spending. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Amber Waves article, “Spending Gap Between Full and Quick-Service Restaurants Widened During Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic”, April 2022 utilizing data from The NPD Group’s Consumer Reported Eating Share Trends (NPD CREST).
Monday, April 11, 2022
Extreme temperatures can have a negative impact on dairy cow production, as well as the growth and development of crops used for feed. New research from USDA, Economic Research Service calculates how often during a calendar year temperatures are within the optimal range for a dairy cow's maximum productivity (41–77°F), as well as the growth and development of feed crops (50–86°F), such as corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. The number of days outside these optimal temperature ranges are used to predict the effects of extreme temperature on dairy cows and feed crops. Findings indicate that all herd-size classes in several States experienced reduced growth in total factor productivity (TFP) because of extreme temperatures. TFP is an index that measures the rate of growth in milk output compared to the rate of growth in total inputs used in milk production. On the other hand, extreme weather in most States did not cause a decline in TFP by limiting feed availability. Farmers can use adaptive strategies to lessen the impacts of unfavorable temperatures on cows, which include building shade structures, installing cooling and heating systems, altering the nutrient mix, and raising heat-tolerant breeds. Similarly, farmers may resort to purchasing feed from other regions of the United States in response to adverse weather conditions that impact feed crop development in areas where dairy operations are located. This chart was drawn from the Sources, Trends, and Drivers of U.S. Dairy Productivity and Efficiency report, published in February 2022.
Friday, April 8, 2022
Imports of beef from Brazil have spiked in the last two years as U.S. demand for processing-grade beef has substantially increased. In January 2022 alone, imports reached nearly 100 million pounds—a more than 500 percent increase relative to the same month a year earlier—with fresh beef accounting for 83 million pounds. Historically, imports from Brazil primarily consisted of heat-treated beef products, including prepared or preserved beef. In February 2020, the USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service determined that fresh beef from Brazil was eligible for import. As a result, beef imports from Brazil have risen. Record high U.S. beef prices and drought-impacted supplies in Australia, where the United States would otherwise source beef, have also contributed to growing imports of processing-grade beef from Brazil. Further, in September 2021, China—the destination for more than 40 percent of Brazilian beef exports in 2021—temporarily embargoed imports of Brazilian beef based on animal health concerns. The embargo was lifted in December 2021, but not before some of Brazil’s beef was redirected to other markets, including the United States. Further increases in U.S. imports of fresh beef from Brazil are limited by the tariff rate quota system. Beef imported from Brazil enters the United States under the open quota system. Once the quota is filled, imports of fresh beef from Brazil would be subject to a higher tariff, reducing the beef’s competitiveness with sources from other countries. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s March 2022 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Wednesday, April 6, 2022
Guidelines for implementing drought-induced water restrictions on water deliveries and pumping are the most common component in the formal drought plans of irrigation organizations. In the 2019 Survey of Irrigation Organizations, USDA asked groundwater organizations and water delivery organizations, such as irrigation districts and ditch companies, questions about their formal drought planning. Around one-fifth of all organizations had a formal, written drought plan. Between 69 percent and 73 percent of water delivery organization plans and 80 percent of groundwater organization plans included details about drought-induced water restrictions as a component of their plans. Land fallowing provisions and off-year water storage strategies typically occurred in fewer than 20 percent of plans for most organizations. About one-third of large delivery organization plans included provisions for price increases and water supply augmentation during drought by purchasing additional water. This chart was drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report Irrigation Organizations: Drought Planning and Response (EB-33), published January 6, 2022.
Monday, April 4, 2022
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) monitors the food security status of households in the United States through an annual nationwide survey. Food-insecure households are defined as those that had difficulty at some time during the year providing enough food for all of their members because of a lack of resources. Households with food insecurity among children, labeled as having child food insecurity, were unable at times to provide adequate, nutritious food for their children. A household is classified by the race and ethnicity of the household reference person, or the adult in the household in whose name the housing unit is owned or rented. Households with children headed by Hispanic reference persons saw statistically significant increases in food insecurity among children in 2020, increasing to 12.2 percent in 2020 from 7.8 percent in 2019. In 2020, food insecurity among children affected 13.0 percent of Black, non-Hispanic households. That prevalence was significantly above the 2020 national average, but not significantly different from the 2019 prevalence for Black, non-Hispanic households. The prevalence of food insecurity among children in Hispanic and Black, non-Hispanic households has been historically higher than the prevalence for all households with children. Households that fall into the Other, non-Hispanic category of race and ethnicity are headed by reference persons that identify as Native American, Asian American, multiple-race American, or other. In 2020, the only race and ethnicity category statistically significantly below the national average of 7.6 percent for food insecurity among children was White, non-Hispanic households. This chart appears in ERS’s Amber Waves article, Food Insecurity for Households With Children Rose in 2020, Disrupting Decade-long Decline, February 2022.
Friday, April 1, 2022
Fresh carrot per capita availability—a proxy used for per capita consumption—has trended upward over the past century, increasing from 2.2 pounds in 1919 to a projection of 8.8 pounds in 2022. Driven by rising fresh-market use, long-run consumer interest in carrots has been strong in the United States. In particular, during the past 35 years, the U.S. carrot industry was transformed by fresh-cut technology, which introduced baby and other fresh-cut carrot products. Per capita availability of fresh carrots peaked in 1997 at 14.1 pounds during the initial introductory period of fresh-cut products. Despite the widespread appeal and convenience of fresh-cut products, after the 1997 peak, availability of all fresh carrots trended downward. This drop may have reflected reduced demand for whole (heavier-weight) carrots, as lighter pre-packaged fresh-cut products shifted demand. It is also plausible the maturation of the fresh-cut industry fostered increased production and processing efficiency within the industry, reducing packinghouse waste and requiring fewer acres and raw carrot production. After 2009, the trend in fresh carrot availability reversed and slowly increased as the general economy recovered from the 2008 Great Recession and consumers had more disposable income. During the 5-year period of 2015–19, per capita availability of fresh carrots returned to the average of 8.9 pounds observed in 2000–04. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, November 2021.
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
The U.S. dairy sector has experienced a gradual shift in milk production away from small farms toward larger dairy operations. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) research indicates that this shift in production from small dairy herd-size farms to large dairy herd-size farms mirrors total factor productivity (TFP) growth across the dairy sector. Total factor productivity (TFP) is a broad measure of agricultural productivity that compares the total output to the total land, labor, capital, and material inputs used in farm production. TFP measures how inputs are combined to produce output. When the total output increases faster than total inputs, TFP is said to be growing. Between 2000 and 2016, the largest dairy operations (those with more than 1,000 milk cows) experienced a TFP growth rate of 2.993 percent per year. Meanwhile, TFP growth for the smallest operations (those with fewer than 100 milk cows) increased at an annual rate of 0.639 percent. TFP growth across all operations was primarily driven by technological progress—growth associated with innovations in systems, processes, and techniques that convert inputs into milk output—and environmental effects that positively impacted feed availability. The slow growth in TFP across smaller dairy operations was primarily due to not operating the farms at a higher, optimal scale; the inability of managers to successfully combine various inputs at their disposal to maximize output; and unfavorable environmental factors that impacted the general well-being of cows. This chart was drawn from the ERS report Sources, Trends, and Drivers of U.S. Dairy Productivity and Efficiency, published February 17, 2022.