Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, February 5). Farm sector income & finances: Farm sector income forecast.
Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decline slightly in 2026. Forecast at $153.4 billion for the calendar year, net farm income would be $1.2 billion (0.7 percent) lower than in 2025. Net cash farm income is forecast at $158.5 billion for 2026, an increase of $4.6 billion (3 percent) relative to 2025 (not adjusted for inflation).
In inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decline by $4.1 billion (2.6 percent) from 2025 to 2026, and net cash farm income is forecast to increase by $1.7 billion (1.1 percent) compared with the previous year. If realized, both measures in 2026 would be above their 2005–24 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars).
See all forecast and estimate data on farm income and wealth statistics or see a summary of the forecasts in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2019–2026F.
Note: In the text below, year-to-year changes in the major aggregate components of farm income are generally discussed in nominal dollars, although cases are noted where the change’s direction is reversed using inflation-adjusted dollars.
Summary Findings
- Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $14.2 billion (2.7 percent) from 2025 to $514.7 billion in 2026 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to increase by $2.8 billion (1.2 percent) from 2025 levels to $240.8 billion in 2026 following higher receipts for corn. When adjusted for inflation, total crop receipts are forecast to decline 0.7 percent. Total animal/animal product receipts are projected to decrease by $17.0 billion (5.8 percent) to $273.9 billion in 2026. Receipts for both eggs and milk are forecast to fall relative to 2025.
- Direct Government farm payments are forecast at $44.3 billion for 2026, a $13.8-billion increase from 2025. The forecast increase is largely because of an expected increase in commodity payments that are a function of prices while supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers is forecast to remain high in 2026. Direct Government farm payments include Federal farm program payments paid to farmers and ranchers but exclude U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC).
- Total production expenses, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to remain relatively stable in 2026. They are forecast to increase $4.6 billion (1.0 percent) from 2025 to $477.7 billion in 2026 in nominal dollars but decline 0.9 percent when adjusted for inflation. Spending on livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest increase relative to 2025 at $5.9 billion (9.7 percent) nominally while spending on feed is expected to decline $4.8 billion (6.8 percent) in 2026.
Total Cash Receipts Forecast To Decline in 2026
Total inflation-adjusted cash receipts are forecast to fall $24.3 billion (4.5 percent) from 2025 to $514.7 billion in 2026. Crop cash receipts are projected to decline $1.8 billion (0.7 percent) during the year and animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to decrease by $22.6 billion (7.6 percent).
Crop Receipts Expected to Remain Stable in 2026
Crop cash receipts are forecast at $240.8 billion in 2026, an increase of $2.8 billion (1.2 percent) from 2025 in nominal terms (however, the 2026 forecast represents a decline in real inflation-adjusted terms). Receipts for corn and hay are expected to increase, while receipts for wheat and rice are projected to decline.
Corn receipts are expected to grow $2.0 billion (3.3 percent) in 2026, mainly due to higher quantities sold. Soybean receipts are expected to remain at prior year levels in 2026, but wheat receipts are projected to fall $0.2 billion (2.4 percent) due to lower quantities sold. Rice receipts are forecast to decline by $0.4 billion (12.5 percent) in 2026 because of falling prices and smaller quantities sold. Receipts for hay are expected to increase $0.4 billion (5.5 percent) in 2026, while cotton receipts are expected to remain near 2025 levels.
Vegetable and melon cash receipts are expected to increase $0.7 billion (2.7 percent) in 2026 due to higher prices. Receipts for fruits and nuts are forecast to increase by a total of $0.4 billion (1.2 percent). See data on value of crop production (in the value added table) and crop cash receipts.
Animal/Animal Product Receipts Projected to Fall in 2026
Total animal/animal product cash receipts are forecast at $273.9 billion in 2026, a decrease of $17.0 billion (5.8 percent) in nominal terms from 2025. Falling receipts for chicken eggs and milk, owing to lower prices, are expected to drive the overall decline. However, cattle/calves receipts are expected to continue growing in 2026.
Milk receipts are forecast to decline by $6.2 billion (12.8 percent) from 2025 due to lower prices. Hog receipts are expected to fall $0.2 billion (0.7 percent). Receipts for cattle and calves are projected to grow $5.2 billion (4.1 percent), as cattle prices are expected to continue to rise in 2026.
Receipts for chicken eggs are forecast to drop $17.3 billion (66.0 percent), as prices are forecast to fall dramatically this year. Broiler receipts are expected to increase $0.6 billion (1.4 percent) in 2026. See data on value of animal/product production (in the value added table) and animal/product cash receipts.
Direct Government Farm Payments Forecast To Increase in 2026
Direct Government farm program payments are those made by the Federal Government to farmers and ranchers with no intermediaries. Most direct payments to farmers and ranchers are administered by the USDA using the Farm Bill but can also come from supplemental programs authorized by the U.S. Congress. Government payments discussed here do not include Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) indemnity payments (listed as a separate component of farm income) and USDA loans (listed as a liability in the farm sector’s balance sheet). Direct Government farm program payments are forecast at $44.3 billion for 2026, a $13.8 billion increase (or 45.2 percent) from the $30.5 billion total for 2025. This overall increase reflects higher anticipated payments from Farm Bill programs that trigger payments when commodity prices fall while supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments are expected to remain high.
- Supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments in 2026 are forecast at $23.9 billion and consist primarily of payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act and Supplemental Disaster Assistance From the American Relief Act of 2025.
- Farm Bill payments that are a function of commodity prices are forecast at $15.2 billion for 2026, a significant increase of $13.1 billion from 2025 largely because of modifications to the 2025 crop year Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs authorized by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, Pub. L. 119-21). Dairy Margin Coverage Payments are forecast at $122.9 million, an increase of $176.3 million for 2026 from 2025.
- Conservation payments from the financial assistance programs of USDA's Farm Service Agency and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) are expected to be $5.3 billion in 2026, an increase of $219.0 million (4.3 percent) from the 2025 level. The increase in conservation payments is due to an increase in payments from NRCS programs.
See data table on Government payments.
Production Expenses Expected To Remain Near Current Levels in 2026
Farm sector production expenses are forecast at $477.7 billion in 2026, up from the 2025 forecast of $473.1 billion – an increase of $4.6 billion (1.0 percent) in nominal terms. When adjusted for inflation, the expenses are projected to decrease by $4.5 billion (0.9 percent) from their 2025 levels.
See data tables on production expenses.
Livestock/poultry purchases, feed, and labor are expected to be the three largest production expense categories. In 2026, livestock and poultry purchases—the largest single category—are projected at $66.3 billion, up $5.9 billion (9.7 percent) compared with 2025.
Feed expenses are forecast to continue the decline that began in 2023. In 2026, feed spending is projected at $65.6 billion, down $4.8 billion (6.8 percent) from 2025. Cash labor expenses are forecast at $53.9 billion, up $1.2 billion (2.2 percent) from the expected 2025 level; this increase is roughly in line with inflation.
Among other categories, pesticide expenses (spending on agricultural chemicals and application costs) and fuel and oil expenses are projected to decline in 2026 relative to 2025, while property taxes and fees (accounting for operator’s dwellings) and electricity expenses are expected to rise. For full data on expenses by category, and for the values in both nominal and inflation-adjusted dollars, see the data tables on production expenses.
