Market Outlook

See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.

U.S. Soybean Production Falls on Lower Yields

This month, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in its Crop Production report reduced the 2024/25 national average soybean yield to 51.7 bushels per acre from the previous month’s forecast of 53.1 bushels per acre. The lower yield forecast has reduced the 2024/25 U.S. soybean production estimate by 120.7 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels. Soybean crush is lowered 15.0 million bushels to 2.4 billion bushels. Exports are also reduced to 1.8 billion bushels on smaller production and sales to date. With lower soybean production only partially offset by lower usage, soybean ending stocks for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 are forecast at 470 million bushels. The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month and stands at $10.80 per bushel.

Global soybean production for MY 2024/25 is forecasted at 425.4 million metric tons, 3.5 million metric tons lower than last month’s forecast. Reductions to the U.S. and India’s soybean production contributed to this change. The global soybean trade forecast is raised this month as higher exports from Brazil, Canada, and Benin more than offset a reduction of U.S. soybean exports. Global soybean crush is forecast lower due to lower U.S. crush partially offset by higher crush in Pakistan. Global soybean ending stocks for MY 2024/25 are reduced this month by 2.9 million metric tons to 131.7 million metric tons, but the forecasted stocks are 19.3 million metric tons higher than estimated soybean stocks for MY 2023/24.