Market Outlook
See the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Summary
Pork/Hogs: The first-quarter commercial pork production is raised 30 million pounds to 7.2 billion pounds on higher-than-expected February production. Total 2024 commercial pork production is expected to be 27.9 billion pounds, up 2.2 percent from a year ago. Live equivalent prices of 51-52 percent lean hogs are forecast to average about $61 per cwt, 3.7 percent above prices in 2023. Pork exports for 2024 are raised 50 million pounds on strong demand from major importing countries and weakening competitiveness of EU pork due to lower production and higher prices. Total 2024 pork exports are expected to be 7.1 billion pounds, 4.6 percent above year-ago shipments.
Anticipated percent changes in 2024 red meat, poultry, and dairy exports compared with 2023
U.S. export forecasts for red meat, poultry, and dairy for 2024 compared to actual export data from 2023 are presented below in a percent-change format. In 2024, beef exports are expected to be about 8.3 percent lower than those of 2023 due to lower 2024 beef production from tightening cattle supplies, as well as from tougher global competition from such beef exporting countries as Australia. Pork exports are forecast to increase almost 4.6 percent over 2023 due to higher domestic production and less global competition from the European Union. Broiler exports in 2024 are expected to decline about 1.4 percent compared with last year, due to higher domestic prices and weak demand from China. Turkey is expected to be competitively priced in 2024, with exports forecast to be up 6.4 percent compared with 2023. Compared with 2023, dairy exports on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis should increase slightly this year—about 0.2 percent. Relatively strong domestic demand for dairy products and limited growth in milk production will likely limit export growth.
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