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International Macroeconomic Data Set - Documentation

The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) takes the lead role in preparing the International Macroeconomic Data Set. The data set provides annual economic indicators for 181 countries that account for nearly 99 percent of the world economy.

These macroeconomic data and projections are assembled by the ERS Macroeconomic Team to serve as underlying assumptions for the annually updated USDA’s long-term agricultural projections. Also known as the USDA Baseline, the projections provide a 10-year supply, demand, and trade outlook for major agricultural commodities in the United States and selected countries.

The macroeconomic assumptions are calculated by the ERS Macroeconomic Team. The assumptions are based on data compiled from multiple private forecast subscription services, the U.S. Government, international agencies’ projections, and the USDA, Economic Research Service, Market and Trade Economics Division’s regional and country experts. The results of these compiled annual macroeconomic data are a unique set that serves as a common reference point across U.S. Government agencies.

The ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set includes both historical and projected data for population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation, and exchange rates. Macroeconomic variables are presented for individual countries, plus the European Union, and various other regional and economic aggregations developed by the ERS Macroeconomic Team to support the USDA Baseline analysis. The projections assume no policy changes and no additional shocks (e.g., political crises, major conflicts, and disease outbreaks).

The macroeconomic projections are completed by the ERS Macroeconomic Team in August of every year. The data set (including the historical data going back to the year 1970 and the 10-year projection) is released every November of the same year.

The Baseline’s macroeconomic projections describe the long-term scenario that is used as a benchmark for analyzing the impacts of alternative scenarios and macroeconomic shocks. Users can view and download historical and projection data. The projections are important to applied economic work in public and private sectors. The Baseline’s macroeconomic assumptions are used not only for the annual USDA Agricultural Baseline report they are also used by U.S. Agricultural Trade -- Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade analysts, ERS research analysts, and analysts in the private sector who incorporate the assumptions into their own analytical work.

Note: When opening the CSV files using Microsoft Excel, there may be a warning asking users to convert the data due to the large and small nature of some of the values. This is expected, and we recommend users click on “Convert” to convert the numbers. 

Scope

The macroeconomic projections are completed by the ERS Macroeconomic Team in August of every year. The data set (including the historical data going back to the year 1970 and the 10-year projection) is released every November of the same year.

Various criteria are used in selecting countries included in the International Macroeconomic Data Set. First, countries included must reflect the bulk of U.S. agricultural exports for each commodity in the USDA Baseline. In all cases, more than 90 percent of U.S. exports are represented by the countries chosen. A second objective is to have representative coverage of regions around the world. The International Macroeconomic Data Set of long-term assumptions for individual countries also include ERS’ particular economic classifications developed to support the USDA Baseline analysis:

  • United States and Canada: Canada, United States

Latin America

  • Other South America: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay
  • South America: Argentina, Brazil, Other South America
  • Other Caribbean and Central America: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago
  • Latin America: Mexico, Other Caribbean Central America, South America

Europe

  • Other Central Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, North, Serbia
  • Other Western Europe: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
  • Other Europe: Other Central Europe, Other Western Europe
  • Recently-Acceded Members: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
  • Belgium Luxembourg: Belgium, Luxembourg
  • European Union 15: Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
  • Eurozone: Austria, Belgium Luxembourg, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain
  • European Union 27: Recently Acceded Countries, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden
  • Europe: European Union 15, Recently Acceded Countries, Other Europe

Former Soviet Union

  • Other Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
  • Former Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, Other Former Soviet Union

Asia and Oceania

  • Other Oceania: Vanuatu, Tonga, Solomon Islands, Samoa, Papua New Guinea, Maldives, Fiji
  • Oceania: Australia, New Zealand, Other Oceania
  • Other South Asia: Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka
  • South Asia: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Other South Asia
  • Other Southeast Asia: Brunei, Laos, Singapore
  • Southeast Asia: Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Other Southeast Asia
  • Other East Asia: Macau, Mongolia
  • East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Other East Asia
  • East Asia Less Japan: China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, Other East Asia
  • Asia: East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia
  • Asia Less Japan: East Asia Less Japan, Southeast Asia, South Asia
  • Asia and Oceania: Asia, Oceania
  • Other Asia Oceania: Other Oceania, Other South Asia, Other Southeast Asia, Other East Asia

Middle East

  • Other Middle East: Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
  • Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Other Middle East

Africa

  • Other Sub-Saharan Africa: Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, São Tomé and Principe, Seychelles, Sudan, Swaziland/Eswatini, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
  • Other West African Community: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Other West African Community, Other Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Other North Africa: Algeria, Libya, Tunisia
  • North Africa: Egypt, Morocco, Other North Africa
  • Africa: North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa

World

  • World: North America, Latin America, Europe, Former Soviet Union, Asia and Oceania, Middle East, Africa
  • World less United States: Canada, Latin America, Europe, Former Soviet Union, Asia and Oceania, Middle East, Africa

 Other economic or income aggregations

  • High Income Countries (based off World Bank classifications): Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Hong Kong, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Singapore, Belgium, New Zealand, Canada, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Japan, Korea, United States, Israel, Malta, Slovenia, Austria, United Arab Emirates, Spain, France, Cyprus, Italy, Estonia, Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Bahrain, Lithuania, Saudi Arabia, Portugal, Latvia, Croatia, Chile, Qatar, Slovakia, Hungary, Kuwait, Brunei, Romania, Oman, Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Panama, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Seychelles, St. Kitts and Nevis, Macau, Puerto Rico, Taiwan
  • High Income Countries less United States: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Hong Kong, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Singapore, Belgium, New Zealand, Canada, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Japan, Korea, Israel, Malta, Slovenia, Austria, United Arab Emirates, Spain, France, Cyprus, Italy, Estonia, Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Bahrain, Lithuania, Saudi Arabia, Portugal, Latvia, Croatia, Chile, Qatar, Slovakia, Hungary, Kuwait, Brunei, Romania, Oman, Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Panama, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Seychelles, St. Kitts and Nevis, Macau, Puerto Rico, Taiwan
  • Upper-Middle Income Countries: Argentina, Turkey, Russia, Kazakhstan, Costa Rica, Belarus, Malaysia, Georgia, Mauritius, Serbia, Thailand, Albania, Bulgaria, Grenada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, North, China, Dominican Republic, Moldova, Cuba, Peru, Armenia, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Maldives, Azerbaijan, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Ecuador, Fiji, Suriname, Dominica, Jordan, Libya, Paraguay, St. Lucia, Guyana, South Africa, Jamaica, Gabon, Botswana, Iraq, Belize, Guatemala, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea
  • Lower-Middle Income Countries: Sri Lanka, Iran, Ukraine, Algeria, Mongolia, Egypt, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Samoa, Lebanon, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Morocco, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bhutan, Cabo Verde, Bangladesh, India, Ghana, Honduras, São Tomé and Principe, Laos, Vanuatu, Nepal, Swaziland/Eswatini, Cambodia, Zimbabwe, Angola, Burma, Cameroon, Kenya, Republic of Congo, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Mauritania, Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Pakistan, Haiti, Nigeria, Benin, Lesotho, Senegal, Djibouti
  • Low Income Countries: Syria, Zambia, Togo, Rwanda, Uganda, Malawi, Sudan, Madagascar, Gambia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Yemen, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Mali, Burundi, Central African Republic, Niger, Chad
  • BRIICs: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China
  • Formerly Centrally Planned Economies: Cyprus, Malta, Other Central Europe, Former Soviet Union
  • USMCA: United States, Mexico, Canada
  • Europe and Central Asia: Europe, Former Soviet Union
  • Middle East and North Africa: Middle East, North Africa
  • Other Southeast Asia Outlook: Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
  • Other South America Outlook: Chile, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay

Methods

ERS does not independently project macroeconomic variables; the Macroeconomic Team bases the projections on forecasts and projections prepared by other U.S. Government agencies and forecasts informed by proprietary data sources. In addition, the ERS Macroeconomic Team receives input from ERS’ country and regional trade analysts working on the development of the international component of the long-term Baseline.

The USDA Baseline’s macroeconomic projections are based on annual growth rates collected and estimated each year. For each individual country and regional aggregates, annual historical data are available for all variables from 2000 (first historical year) to the most recent available year and each variable is projected forward. Data are in constant 2017 U.S. dollars. Macroeconomic variables (historical and projected) are reported in “value terms” and “annual growth rates.”

Key variables compiled by the ERS Macroeconomic Team include:

  • Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (constant 2017 U.S. dollars), which measures the value of the goods and services produced in the country;
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Deflator (2017 base year), which measures changes in the prices of goods and services domestically produced;
  • Real Exchange Rates (2017 base year), calculated from nominal exchange rates (the price of a country currency in terms of U.S. dollars) and the ratio of national to U.S. consumer price indexes;
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2017 base year), a key measure of inflation, calculated to include food, housing, gas, transportation, and a wide range of other goods and services; and
  • Population, based on the demographic data reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Population totals refers to all residents living in the country in July, each year.

All other elements of the data set are calculated from these variables to include annual values and annual growth rates for:

  • Real GDP per capita (constant 2017 U.S. dollars), which measures the average level of national income per person after adjusting for inflation, is calculated by dividing the real GDP values by the population values.
  • GDP share values, which measures each country’s GDP share in regional, economic, and global aggregate classifications, is calculated by dividing each country’s GDP by the world GDP.
  • The initial step for developing the macroeconomic assumptions is to update the historical data. This step involves updating the data set with the most recent year’s information, but the step also means incorporating revisions of the last 2–3 annual data points of previous years’ data series.

The new information collected each year for GDP, GDP Deflator, Nominal Exchange Rates, and CPI relies on annual percent changes for the data sources and/or ERS country experts; these annual percent changes are then used to complete the value series. For the Population series, actual values are used to calculate annual changes.

Economic variables projections are compared across sources with missing values from these data sources filled in using information from proprietary data source. ERS country analysts will also adjust the first 3–4 annual data points of the projections based on their knowledge of the current situation in each country. Macroeconomic analysts will define the smooth transition to the long-run growth rate for the last 4 years of the projections.

Strengths and Limitations

The ERS macroeconomic projections represent the most comprehensive up-to-date data set of annual key economic variables that are most useful to understand overall economic conditions in the United States and abroad. The value of the data set is reflected on the scope of the comparative statistics—which includes GDP, exchange rates, and CPI from 2000 through 2031. Added value of the macroeconomics data set is reflected in its extensive geographical coverage—which includes 181 countries, the completeness of the series (absent of data gaps), and in the ease of access as users can download the country and regional projections in Excel from the ERS website.

The Baseline macroeconomic projections are based on specific long-term assumptions critical for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions. These projections prepared by the ERS Macroeconomic Team reflect a composite of projections released by other U.S. Government agencies, independent forecasting firms, and ERS analysts with extensive knowledge of the current situation in each country. The projections include policies in place or expected to be implemented as of the completion of the macroeconomic projections.

Since the USDA Baseline macroeconomic projections are meant to represent underlying trends (assuming no changes in policies and abstracting from business cycles)—any diversion from current policies, farm legislation, and other specific assumptions after the Baseline macroeconomic projections are completed would not be reflected in the annual long-run scenario. Thus, a major limitation of this data product is that the product does not account for policy/economic changes that may occur in any given year of the projection period.

Resources

The sources used to generate the GDP and GDP Deflator series include the publicly available projections from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook, and the International Financial Statistics. Additional sources of data include proprietary data sources. Estimated and projected values developed by the USDA, Economic Research Service’s country experts are used for selected Baseline countries.

GDP Deflator, CPI, and Exchange Rates for most countries are from proprietary data sources, and the IMF International Financial Statistics database, as well as estimated and projected values developed by the USDA Economic Research Service’s country experts. Population data for all countries are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, International Database.

Other related sources include:

International Monetary Fund. (2021). International Financial Statistics. International Monetary Fund.

World Bank. (2021). World Development Indicators. World Bank.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist and U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board. (2021). USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030 Long-term Projections Report (Report No. OCE-2021-1). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2021). Agricultural Baseline Database. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2021). Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade (Report No. AES-118). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2021). Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set (data set). U.S. Department of Economic Research Service.

Recommended Citation

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. International Macroeconomic Data Set (data set).