Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2025 Forecast at $169.5 Billion; Imports revised upwards to $212.0 Billion

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2024

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 are forecast at $169.5 billion, down $4.0 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2024. This decline is primarily driven by lower unit values of soybeans, corn, and cotton, as well as lower volumes of beef. Soybean exports are projected down $1.5 billion to $22.9 billion; corn exports are forecast to fall $900 million to $12.2 billion, as lower unit values more than offset higher volumes in both crops. Cotton exports are forecast $900 million lower to $4.5 billion due to softening unit values while volumes are unchanged. Beef exports are forecast at $8.4 billion, down $1.0 billion from FY 2024, as lower U.S. production reduces exportable supplies. Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected at $38.6 billion, down $100 million from FY 2024, as the decline in beef exports is mostly offset by higher exports of pork, poultry, variety meats, and dairy products. Horticultural exports are projected to rise by $1.2 billion to a record $41.5 billion due to higher exports across all categories. Ethanol exports are forecast at $4.3 billion, unchanged from the revised FY 2024 projection. Agricultural exports to Mexico are forecast at $29.2 billion, down $100 million from FY 2024. The export forecast to Canada is unchanged at $28.9 billion. Mexico and Canada are projected to remain the first and second largest U.S. agricultural markets, respectively. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $24.0 billion, $3.0 billion lower than the revised FY 2024 estimate, driven by reduced import demand, strong competition, and lower unit values of key U.S. exports.

FY 2024 export forecast is at $173.5 billion, up $3.0 billion from the May projection, largely due to higher horticultural and grain exports.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2025 are forecast at $212.0 billion, $8.0 billion higher than the revised FY 2024 estimate, largely due to rising imports of horticultural as well as sugar and tropical products. For FY 2024, agricultural imports are forecast at $204.0 billion, up $1.5 billion from the May projection, buoyed by the continued strength of the U.S. economy into late FY 2024.

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the August 12, 2024, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release.