ERS Charts of Note
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Thanksgiving meals typically include such iconic dishes as pumpkin pie and stuffing, and roast turkey is usually the centerpiece. This year and last, wholesale turkey prices have been sharply lower than in years past. Do lower wholesale prices mean lower turkey prices at the grocery store? Not always. While wholesale and retail turkey price movements are historically correlated on a yearly basis, seasonal factors can disrupt this correlation. Commonly in the past, retail turkey prices during the Thanksgiving holiday season were near annual low points, while wholesale prices were near yearly highs. Between 2014 and 2016, the November markup from wholesale to retail prices for turkey averaged 18 percent, compared with an average 40-percent markup over the entire 5-year period. Beginning in 2017, however, wholesale turkey prices began a sustained decline that was not reflected in retail price movements. The retail markup in November 2017 reached 75 percent and remained high at 70 percent in November 2018. The markup is expected to remain high in 2019 but should contract slightly due to rising wholesale prices. The data suggest that the past relationship between wholesale and retail Thanksgiving turkey prices may be fading, as retail prices have become less responsive to downward movements in wholesale prices. This chart appears in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter released in September 2019.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
The United States produces close to 7.9 billion dozen table eggs per year, via a population of table-egg-laying hens numbering in the hundreds of million. Once trade and storage are accounted for, this amounts to nearly 279 eggs available per person annually. In 2015, an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) significantly reduced the Nation’s laying-hen inventories. After reaching a low point in June 2015, inventories began to recover and have since eclipsed previous record highs, reaching nearly 331 million in December 2018. Along with the rise in laying-hen numbers, egg-laying rates have also increased through genetic improvements, reaching over 79 eggs laid per 100 hens per day in December 2018. Currently, the capacity for daily production exceeds approximately 22 million dozen eggs. In 2019, USDA forecasts suggest egg production will reach 8 billion dozen with a domestic availability of 280 eggs per person. A version of this chart appears in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter released in February 2019. This Chart of Note was originally published February 27, 2019.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The United States produces close to 7.9 billion dozen table eggs per year, via a population of table-egg-laying hens numbering in the hundreds of million. Once trade and storage are accounted for, this amounts to nearly 279 eggs available per person annually. In 2015, an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) significantly reduced the Nation’s laying-hen inventories. After reaching a low point in June 2015, inventories began to recover and have since eclipsed previous record highs, reaching nearly 331 million in December 2018. Along with the rise in laying-hen numbers, egg-laying rates have also increased through genetic improvements, reaching over 79 eggs laid per 100 hens per day in December 2018. Currently, the capacity for daily production exceeds approximately 22 million dozen eggs. In 2019, USDA forecasts suggest egg production will reach 8 billion dozen with a domestic availability of 280 eggs per person. A version of this chart appears in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter released in February 2019.
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused the loss of more than 50 million U.S. chickens and turkeys between December 2014 and June 2015, the largest poultry health disaster in U.S. history. More than 80 percent of bird losses were recorded between April 17 and May 19, 2015. Table-egg laying chickens accounted for a large majority of the lost birds; about 12 percent of the U.S. table-egg laying chicken flock was lost. As production fell, egg prices rose sharply. May-December 2015 prices for consumer-grade eggs were 61 percent higher than the previous year. The price increase far surpassed the production losses on a relative basis, reflecting what economists call inelastic demand, meaning that the quantity demanded of a good is not particularly sensitive to changes in price. Consumers did not cut back on their demand, i.e. purchases, even when prices rose, pushing prices even higher. Price increases for processing-grade eggs, often used by restaurants, bakers, and other commercial operations, rose, too. This reflects commercial users’ inelastic demand due, in part, to the difficulty they face in finding substitutes for eggs in their products. A version of this chart appears in the April 2018 ERS Amber Waves article, "Egg Price Impacts of the 2014-15 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak."
Friday, March 23, 2018
U.S. broiler meat production continues to grow, reaching 3.6 billion pounds in January 2018, almost 4 percent higher than the previous year. For the year, USDA expects broiler production to reach 42.6 billion pounds, almost 1 billion pounds more than was produced in 2017, and nearly 2 billion more than in 2016. One of the factors driving higher broiler meat production is a steady increase in the average weight of the birds slaughtered. Weights in January 2018 averaged 6.26 pounds, about one percent above a year ago, and more than 4 percent higher than January 2014. Broiler weights tend to follow a cyclical pattern, peaking during the late fall or early winter and achieving their lowest average weights at the height of the summer, but they have shown year-over-year gains in most months over the past 5 years. This chart is from the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter, released in March 2018.
Monday, March 12, 2018
The 2014-15 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak had a widespread impact on the U.S. poultry sector, hitting egg producers the hardest. The outbreak resulted in the loss of roughly 12 percent of the total U.S. table-egg laying population, which limited production and drove up domestic wholesale prices for all egg grades, including those used for processing by restaurants, bakers, and other food manufacturers. During this period, egg market supplies were bolstered by a very large increase in imports, including shell eggs graded for processing as well as liquid and dried egg products. Before 2015, these imports were marginal, attributable in part to rigorous country certification standards and less competitive prices due to typically robust domestic egg production (the Netherlands, for example, had to recertify after allowing their certification to lapse). After the outbreak, however, monthly imports of these items peaked above 15 percent of the processed eggs available domestically. As production recovered and domestic prices returned to pre-outbreak levels, U.S. egg imports returned to more stable levels, falling by 74 percent in 2017 to total 32 million dozen, just 2 million dozen more than the single month’s total in December 2015. This chart appears in the ERS report, Impacts of the 2014-2015 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak on the U.S. Poultry Sector, released in December 2017.
Friday, January 12, 2018
The 2014-15 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak was the largest poultry health disaster in U.S. history. More than 50 million birds were lost to the disease itself or to depopulation, overshadowing bird losses during any previous U.S. outbreak. HPAI resulted in lower commodity production when supplies had previously been growing. USDA’s November 2014 forecasts for 2015 anticipated a 3-percent annual increase in both broiler and turkey production and a 2-percent increase in egg production. These projections, however, preceded the outbreak, which lowered egg and turkey production substantially during and afterward. In contrast, HPAI did not affect broiler production, with production growth continuing through 2015 and aligning with prior forecasts. Egg production declined for about 9 months, with the sharpest reduction occurring from May to December 2015, as production remained 10 percent below 2014 levels. The impact of HPAI on turkey production was initially similar to its impact on egg production, but it rebounded faster. While monthly production for June-July 2015 averaged 10 percent below the prior year, monthly production in August-December 2015 averaged only 5 percent lower. This chart appears in the ERS report Impacts of the 2014-2015 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak on the U.S. Poultry Sector, released in December 2017.
Monday, January 9, 2017
Per person chicken consumption in the United States more than doubled over the past four decades. Linking ERS’s loss-adjusted food availability data with food intake surveys from 1994-2008 reveals that the away-from-home market, which includes restaurants with wait staff, fast food places, school cafeterias, and other eating out places, drove much of the growth in U.S. chicken consumption over the 1994-2008 period. The share of total chicken consumption prepared by away-from-home eating out places rose from 41.9 percent during 1994-98 to 46.4 percent during 2007-08. Loss-adjusted chicken availability per person in the away-from-home market was 16.8 pounds in 1994-98 and rose to the range of 22.5 to 24.8 pounds during 2005-08. In contrast, chicken obtained at grocery stores (the food-at-home market) grew by just 2.6 pounds per person from 23.3 to 25.9 pounds. The greater growth in chicken consumption away from home is consistent with the introduction of chicken nuggets, chicken strips, and grilled chicken sandwiches and their rising popularity in fast food and other eating out places. This chart appears in the ERS report U.S. Food Commodity Availability by Food Source, 1994-2008, released on December 28, 2016.
Friday, December 16, 2016
This holiday season, consumers buying baking ingredients will find their wallets stretch a bit farther. The total cost in 2016 for five baking staples—eggs, milk, margarine, sugar, and flour—was down from 2015. A 5-pound bag of flour, 4-pound bag of sugar, gallon of whole milk, pound of margarine, and a carton of eggs would have cost $13.30 in October of 2015 compared to $11.65 in October of 2016—a savings of $1.65. Consumers may notice the biggest savings when they reach into the refrigerated cooler for eggs. Egg prices have been halved, declining year-over-year by $1.42 per dozen as the egg industry recovers from last year’s Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreak. Price changes for the other categories are smaller and vary depending on the ingredient. Milk, sugar, and margarine cost less this year, while a 5-pound bag of flour cost 6 cents more than last year. More information on retail food prices and forecasted inflation can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product, updated November 23, 2016.
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
The food-at-home Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter of 2016 was 1.9 percent lower than the food-at-home CPI for the third quarter of 2015. Grocery store prices decreased, on average, across the board—with the exception of fresh fruits, which rose 2 percent. Egg prices saw the largest decrease, falling 35 percent, reflecting the recovery in the industry after the supply shock caused by late 2014 to June 2015 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreak. Beef and veal, dairy products, pork, and poultry also posted large decreases compared to third quarter 2015, reflecting larger supplies of cattle, raw milk, hogs, and broilers. In addition to increases in domestic supplies, lower oil and energy prices helped hold down retail food price inflation, while a strong U.S. dollar lowered costs for imported foods and decreased demand for U.S. exports, placing further downward pressure on U.S. retail food prices. This chart appears in the Food Prices and Spending section of ERS’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials chart collection. More information on retail food prices and forecasted inflation can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product, updated November 23, 2016.
Monday, August 29, 2016
Wholesale prices for table eggs are typically variable, reflecting changes in supply, demand, as well as seasonal patterns. The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected U.S. poultry farms between December of 2014 and June of 2015 led to a significant reduction in the supply of eggs, and a corresponding spike in prices. As the outbreak intensified in the spring of 2015, the price of a dozen “grade A” large eggs in the New York market increased from $1.29 in April to $2.61 in August. In the two years prior to the outbreak, the average price of a dozen eggs in this market was $1.33. Prices remained elevated through the remainder of 2015 as producers worked to rebuild capacity. As production returned to pre-outbreak levels in early 2016, prices fell sharply to a low of $0.63 per dozen in May 2016, the lowest price since July 2006, before increasing modestly in June and July. This chart is based on data found in the ERS Livestock and Meat Domestic Data.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Livestock farmers use antibiotics to treat, control, and prevent disease, and also for production purposes, such as increasing growth and feed efficiency. A new U.S. Food and Drug Administration initiative seeks to eliminate the use of medically important antibiotics for production purposes. In the 2011 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) on broilers (the most recent year available), producers were asked whether they raised their broilers without antibiotics in their feed or water unless the birds were sick, which implies not using antibiotics for growth promotion or disease prevention. In 2011, growers reported that about half of birds (48 percent) were only given antibiotics for disease treatment. This response also accounts for 48 percent of operations and 48 percent of production (by live weight). Approximately a third (32 percent) of operators stated that they did not know if they provided antibiotics via feed or water for purposes other than disease treatment; this means the proportion of reporting operations that only supplied antibiotics for disease-treatment purposes could be as high as 80 percent. Contracted growers (accounting for 96 percent of broiler production) may not know if antibiotics are in the feed provided by the company for whom they raise broilers. These statistics suggest that in 2011, between 20 and 52 percent of birds were given antibiotics for reasons other than disease treatment. This chart is found in the Amber Waves feature, “Restrictions on Antibiotic Use for Production Purposes in U.S. Livestock Industries Likely To Have Small Effects on Prices and Quantities,” November 2015.
Monday, February 8, 2016
Egg prices are among the most volatile in the grocery store. Unlike many other retail foods, shell eggs have a limited shelf life—they cannot be frozen or canned. If demand increases or supplies fall, there is limited inventory to draw upon and retail prices may rise. While some price fluctuations are expected due to seasonal demand for eggs throughout the year, there have been some above-average price increases over the past 16 years, mainly due to disease outbreaks affecting poultry or surges in feed prices. The most recent upswing in retail egg prices was largely due to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which affected table-egg-laying flocks, primarily in the Midwest. To contain the outbreak, which ran from late 2014 to June 2015, producers destroyed about 33 million hens (roughly 11 percent of U.S. egg-laying hens). Retail egg prices rose 20.9 percent in the third quarter of 2015, and egg prices in September 2015, were 36.2 percent higher than in September 2014. As the industry recovers from the outbreak, retail egg prices have begun to adjust, falling 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This chart appears in “Retail Egg Price Volatility in 2015 Reflects Farm Conditions” in the February 2016 issue of ERS’s Amber Waves magazine.
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
Livestock farmers use antibiotics to treat, control, and prevent disease, and also for production purposes, such as increasing growth and feed efficiency. A new U.S. Food and Drug Administration initiative seeks to eliminate the use of medically important antibiotics for production purposes. ERS research shows that only a portion of hog and broiler producers use antibiotics for production purposes, and the productivity increases from such uses are 1-3 percent. Modelling the effect of production-specific antibiotic restrictions suggests that such a policy would have a modest effect on wholesale prices and quantities produced of chicken and pork—less than a 1-percent increase in wholesale prices and a net decline in production of less than 0.5 percent. Because prices increase more than quantities decrease, gross revenues (price times quantity) would increase slightly. This chart is based on the table found in the Amber Waves feature, “Restrictions on Antibiotic Use for Production Purposes in U.S. Livestock Industries Likely To Have Small Effects on Prices and Quantities,” November 2015.
Monday, January 25, 2016
In 2013, 57.7 pounds of chicken per person on a boneless, edible basis were available for Americans to eat, compared to 53.6 pounds of beef and 43.4 pounds of pork, according to ERS’s food availability data. From 1909 to the early 1940s, chicken availability had been around 10 pounds per person a year, while yearly per-person beef and pork availability had ranged from between 30 and 50 pounds. Chicken began its upward climb in the 1940s, as innovations in breeding, mass production, and processing made chicken more plentiful, affordable, and convenient for the dining-out market and for cooking at home. By 1996, chicken had overtaken pork as the second-most-consumed meat, and in 2010, chicken overtook beef for the No. 1 spot. Beef availability rose during the second half of the last century, peaking at 88.8 pounds per capita in 1976. Pork availability, which had fallen in 2010 and 2011, was up in 2012 and again in 2013. This chart appears in ERS’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Total U.S. livestock output grew 130 percent from 1948 to 2011, with the poultry and eggs subcategory growing much faster than meat animals (including cattle, hogs, and lamb) and dairy products. In 2011, the real value of total poultry and egg production was more than seven times its level in 1948, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 3 percent. The rapid growth of poultry production is due largely to changes in technology—advances in genetics, feed formulations, housing, and practices—and increased consumer demand. Retail prices of poultry fell in the late 1970’s and 1980’s, relative to beef and pork prices, leading to expanded poultry consumption in that period. Increased domestic consumption and exports were also driven by consumer response to an expanding range of new poultry products, as the industry moved away from a reliance on whole birds and production shifted to cut-up parts and processed products such as boneless chicken, breaded nuggets/tenders, and chicken sausages. This chart is found in the ERS report, Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers, July 2015.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
According to ERS’s Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data, U.S. consumption of eggs fell during the 1970s and 1980s from 24 pounds per person in 1971 to 18.2 pounds in 1990. Egg consumption stayed fairly flat before rising some in the late 1990s. Concerns over cholesterol in eggs (related to heart disease), and an increase in fast food restaurants offering non-egg breakfast items such as yogurt, fruit salads, oatmeal, etc., likely influenced the decline. Roughly 70 percent of the 19 pounds of eggs per person (the equivalent of 144 eggs) that Americans consumed in 2012 were shell eggs, and 30 percent were processed egg products, where eggs have been removed from the shell, pasteurized, and then packaged in liquid, frozen, or dried form. Though some processed products are available in grocery stores, many processed egg products are used by food manufacturing and foodservice companies. On a daily basis, Americans consumed an average of 0.8 ounces of eggs per day in 2012, compared to 2.0 ounces of chicken, the most consumed protein in the meat, fish, eggs, and nuts group. In 2012, Americans consumed 529 daily calories per person from the meat, fish, eggs, and nuts group, with 34 calories coming from egg consumption. The data for this chart come from ERS’s Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Over the last 2 months of 2014, egg prices in most markets experienced a brief and very sharp price spike. Egg prices traditionally are strong in the fourth quarter, but the spike in 2014 was larger than usual, considering that table egg production increased in November 2014. The high prices nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2014 are likely the result of both strong exports of table eggs to Mexico in November and uncertainties about the future of the table egg market in California due to new cage size regulations that went into effect on January 1, 2015. In the short term, the new regulations have widened the price difference between the California market and other parts of the United States. At the end of October 2014, the difference between the wholesale prices of Grade A large eggs in the Southern California market and the New York City market was around 12 cents per dozen. Prices in Southern California rose to average $2.68 per dozen by the middle of December. Like in other markets, prices then began to decline, but by the beginning of 2015 had only fallen to around $2.28 per dozen, resulting in a price differential between the Southern California market and the New York City market of over $1.00 per dozen. This chart is based on information from the report, Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook: January 2015.
Monday, January 26, 2015
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service recently conducted the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) of the U.S. broiler chicken industry. Results indicate that several sanitation and biosecurity practices were widespread on broiler operations in the United States in 2011. Almost all operations used practices to control rodent and wild bird access to facilities, and almost all rotated flocks on an all-in, all-out basis, aimed at limiting the spread of pathogens and disease among animals. Nearly half of broiler operations reported that they follow the National Poultry Improvement Plan (NPIP) or a Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) Plan, which are designed to improve animal health, food safety, and food quality. One-fifth of operations fully cleaned out and sanitized their houses after each flock removal. USDA may provide support for incineration and composting facilities, as well as litter management practices, through payments made under the Environmental Quality Incentive Program (EQIP). ARMS results find that seven percent of contract growers received EQIP payments related to broiler production in 2011. This chart is found in the ERS/NASS report, 2011 ARMS - Broiler Industry Highlights.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
The European Union (EU) is one of the world’s leading producers, consumers, and traders of broiler (young chicken) meat, but its sanitary and phytosanitary policies limit imports of U.S. broiler meat. All broiler meat imported by the EU is required to be from sources that do not use pathogen reduction treatments (PRTs), such as chlorine wash, in their production. PRTs are approved for use in the United States and are used by virtually all U.S. processors. Because of this restriction, even the 13 most recent EU member states—including Romania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Bulgaria—halted their imports of U.S. broiler meat after they joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. U.S. broiler exports to the EU are also potentially restricted by the EU’s system of tariff rate quotas (TRQs), but the United States does not currently fill its existing quota because of the EU PRT restriction. The United States receives an exclusive TRQ of 16,665 metric tons, which can be applied to fresh and frozen broiler and turkey meat in whole-bird or parts form. The EU imported 670,000 metric tons of broiler meat in 2013, with 93 percent of those imports supplied by Brazil and Thailand. Find this chart and additional analysis in Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Tariff-Rate Quotas for U.S. Meat Exports to the European Union.