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Rising costs have percolated through to coffee prices in 2022

Thursday, September 29, 2022

National Coffee Day is today, September 29, and according to a National Coffee Association survey, 66 percent of U.S. adults are coffee drinkers. Consumers who get through the daily grind with a 12-ounce cup of black coffee they brewed at home paid, on average, 23.6 cents in the first 8 months of 2022, compared to 19.3 cents in 2021. For those who prefer their daily joe with milk or sugar, adding an ounce of whole milk costs 3.2 cents in 2022, up from 2.7 cents in 2021. Each teaspoon of sugar added 0.7 cents to the cost of a cup of coffee in 2022, compared to 0.6 cents in 2021. Average ground coffee prices through the first 8 months of 2022 were 21.9 percent higher compared to the same period in 2021. Prices rose more slowly for milk (15.9 percent) and sugar (11.0 percent) compared to coffee during those same months. More information on USDA, Economic Research Service’s food price data can be found in the Food Price Outlook data product, updated September 23, 2022.

All food categories experienced higher inflation through July in 2022 compared with 2021

Thursday, August 25, 2022

Retail food prices increased 8.9 percent in the first seven months of 2022, higher than the rate over the same period in 2021 (1.9 percent) and 2020 (3.1 percent). The 20-year historical average for the same months from 2001 to 2020 was 1.7 percent. All 13 food categories depicted in the chart experienced faster price increases so far in 2022 compared with both the same period in 2021 and historical average price increases through July. All food categories saw price increases of at least 4 percent in the first seven months of 2022. Prices for three food categories increased by more than 10 percent: eggs (20.9 percent), fats and oils (13.4 percent), and poultry (11.8 percent). Inflationary pressures differ by food category. For example, eggs and poultry prices are currently much higher than their historical average in part because of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Fresh vegetables historically experienced higher midyear average price increases compared to most categories, but prices for fresh vegetables increased the least of all categories over the first seven months of both 2022 (4.9 percent) and 2021 (0.4 percent). Prices will continue to change during the remainder of 2022 and may significantly affect the annual inflation rate. For example, prices increased for all food categories in the second half of 2021, and some increased more rapidly than the first half of 2021. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project food-at-home prices will increase between 10 and 11 percent in 2022. Forecasts for all food categories, including for 2023, are available in ERS’s monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated August 25, 2022.

Farmers receive about 15 to 18 percent of retail price for fresh potatoes

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Food processors, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers transform raw agricultural commodities into convenient food products for U.S. consumers. Value added to commodities through these companies’ marketing services and money paid to farmers for their commodities account for a substantial portion of retail food prices. The farm share of the retail price of fresh potatoes—the ratio of what farmers receive to what consumers pay per pound in grocery stores—has fluctuated between 15 percent and 18 percent in recent years. The national monthly average price of fresh potatoes was $0.78 per pound at grocery stores in 2021, and the monthly average price received by farmers was $0.12 per pound. As part of the farm share calculation, the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) assumes that farmers supply a little more than 1.04 pounds of fresh potatoes for each pound sold at retail to account for the roughly 4 percent of fresh potatoes that is lost through spoilage or damage. Therefore, at an average farm price of $0.12 per pound, the farm receipt was 12.5 cents for each pound of potatoes sold in 2021, about 16 percent of the retail price. ERS researchers recently hosted a data training webinar on farm-to-retail price spreads and farm share statistics. More information on ERS’s farm share data can be found in the Price Spreads from Farm to Consumer data product, updated June 28, 2022.

More than half of U.S. counties had at least one farmers market that accepted credit cards in 2018

Tuesday, August 9, 2022

U.S. consumers are increasingly able to use a credit card to purchase fresh fruits and vegetables at a farmers market— a retail outlet in which two or more vendors sell agricultural products directly to customers through a common marketing channel. In 2018, 72 percent of U.S. counties reported having at least one farmers market, and 70 percent of those counties reported having one or more farmers markets with the option to purchase using credit cards. The number of farmers markets that report accepting credit cards in a county is provided in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Environment Atlas and the underlying data can be accessed and downloaded. The Atlas is an interactive mapping tool with statistics on more than 280 food environment indicators at the county or State level that can influence food choices and diet quality. According to the current Atlas, 1,595 counties—51 percent of all U.S. counties—had one or more farmers markets that accepted credit cards in 2018. However, the market density varied among those counties, with 86 counties having more than 10 farmers markets that accepted credit cards as a form of payment for goods. This map appears in ERS’s Food Environment Atlas, updated September 2020.

Share of income spent on food in the United States rebounded to pre-pandemic level in 2021

Thursday, August 4, 2022

The share of U.S. consumers’ disposable personal income (DPI) spent on food was relatively steady from 2000 to 2019, rising from 9.93 percent in 2000 to 10.27 percent in 2019. DPI is the amount of money that U.S. consumers have left to spend or save after paying taxes. During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the share of income spent on food dropped to a new low of 9.4 percent in 2020. Food spending rebounded in 2021, however, and the share of income spent on food jumped to 10.27 percent, equaling the share in 2019. Between 2000 and 2019, consumer spending trended toward food away from home (restaurants, fast-food places, schools, and other dining establishments). From 2019 to 2020, this trend reversed as consumers spent more of their incomes on food at supermarkets, convenience stores, warehouse club stores, supercenters, and other retailers (food at home). As COVID-19 vaccines were distributed and many mobility restrictions were lifted in 2021, the share of food-away-from-home spending bounced back to just shy of the food-at-home spending share, signaling a return towards pre-pandemic spending trends. The data for this chart come from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series data product.

Farmers received smaller share of the price consumers paid for fresh tomatoes in 2021 than in 2020

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

The farm share of the retail price of fresh, field-grown tomatoes—the ratio of what farmers received to what consumers paid per pound in grocery stores—fell from 43 percent in 2020 to 36 percent in 2021. While the national, monthly average price of such tomatoes at grocery stores fell 11 cents to $1.85 per pound in 2021, the monthly average price received by farmers simultaneously fell 16 cents to $0.56 per pound. As part of calculating the farm share, the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) assumes that farmers supply a little less than 1.2 pounds of fresh tomatoes for each pound sold at retail, as 15 percent of the fresh tomatoes shipped to grocery stores is lost through spoilage or is otherwise damaged. Farm prices for tomatoes were lower in 2021 as U.S. domestic production of all types of fresh-market tomatoes rose 1.3 percent. This came despite a 4-percent decline in overall fresh vegetable production caused partly by extreme heat in growing regions. More information on ERS’s farm share data can be found in the Price Spreads from Farm to Consumer data product, updated June 3, 2022.

Sales at retail food stores were higher in May 2022 than May 2019, but growth varied by food category

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Total retail food sales in the United States were higher the week ending May 1, 2022, $15.2 billion, compared with May 1, 2019, $12.7 billion, with substantial variation among categories. During the same period, the share of meats, eggs, and nuts increased from 16.8 percent to 17.1 percent, while the share of vegetables fell from 6.8 percent to 6.4 percent. The largest 3-year change was for fats and oils, which were 25.5 percent higher in sales value in 2022 compared with 2019. While the smallest 3-year change was for alcohol, which was 12.3 percent higher in sales value in 2022 compared with 2019. The USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Weekly Retail Food Sales data product provides a current and detailed picture of U.S. food-at-home retail sales. These data are clustered to food group levels and representative at the national and State levels. Two publicly available sets of the Weekly Retail Food Sales data are updated monthly by ERS: One with national totals and totals by 51 product subcategories (including alcohol), and the other with State totals for 39 States by 10 product categories (including alcohol). The data for this chart are available in ERS’s Weekly Retail Food Sales data product, updated on May 31, 2022.

Cost of a home-grilled cheeseburger up 21 cents from 2021

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

For Fourth of July cookouts this year, cheeseburgers could cost more than they did in 2021. In May 2022, the ingredients for a home-prepared 1/4-pound cheeseburger totaled $2.07 per burger, with ground beef making up the largest cost at $1.20 and cheddar cheese accounting for $0.35. This represents an increase of 11.3 percent compared to the $1.86 it cost to produce the same cheeseburger in May 2021. Retail prices for one-pound quantities of all ingredients were higher in May 2022 compared with May 2021. Ground beef prices increased 16.9 percent and accounted for 17 cents of the increase between 2021 and 2022. Cheddar cheese and bread costs each rose about 1 cent per burger from 2021 to 2022. Iceberg lettuce prices rose the most, by 23.3 percent, but the relatively small proportion it contributes to the total cost of a burger means it added just 2 cents to the total. This chart uses data from the ERS Food Price Outlook data product, which was updated on June 24, 2022, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Price data, and USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Weekly Advertised Fruit and Vegetables Retail Prices.

U.S. consumers spent more money on food away from home than food at home in 2021, returning to pre-pandemic trend

Monday, June 13, 2022

Real, or inflation-adjusted, annual food spending in the United States has increased every year since 1997 except in 2008, 2009, and 2020. Sales increased from 1997 to 2019 for both food at home (FAH), food intended for off-premise consumption from retailers such as grocery stores, and food away from home (FAFH), food consumed at outlets such as restaurants or cafeterias. Over this period, real FAH spending increased at a slower rate (43.5 percent) than for FAFH (73.9 percent). In 2020, during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, real total food expenditures fell 6.6 percent from 2019. U.S. consumers’ food-spending patterns changed as efforts were made to limit the spread of COVID-19, which included stay-at-home orders. FAFH spending decreased by 15.8 percent in 2020, while FAH spending increased by 3.9 percent. In 2021, real total food expenditures increased 12.2 percent from 2020. With increased household income during the economic recovery and relaxed safety measures around indoor dining and social distancing, FAFH spending increased by 21.1 percent in 2021 from the previous year and was the primary driver of the overall food spending increase. FAH spending increased by 4 percent. The data for this chart come from the ERS’s Food Expenditure Series data product.

Retail food price inflation varies across U.S. metro areas

Monday, May 23, 2022

Retail food price inflation varies by locality. In the 10 years from 2012 to 2021, increases in retail food prices ranged from an average of 2.4 percent a year in Honolulu, HI, to 0.9 percent in the Dallas-Fort Worth, TX, area. Retail food at home includes food bought in grocery stores as opposed to restaurants. Differences in transportation costs and retail overhead expenses, such as labor and rent, can explain some of the variation among cities because retailers often pass local cost increases on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Furthermore, differences in consumer preferences among cities for specific foods may help explain variation in inflation rates. For example, a city whose residents strongly prefer foods with less price inflation (such as fresh fruits and vegetables, at 1.3 and 0.8 percent average yearly growth for 2012-21) might experience lower food-at-home price inflation than a city whose residents buy more beef and veal, which increased by an average of 4.2 percent a year in the 10-year period. Across the United States, food-at-home prices increased by an average of 1.4 percent a year over the 10-year period. This chart appears in an Economic Research Service data visualization, Food Price Environment: Interactive Visualization, released May 12, 2022.

Spending dropped at all types of food-away-from-home outlets in first year of COVID-19 pandemic

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Spending decreased at each of the nine types of food-away-from-home (FAFH) outlets measured in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series (FES) from 2019 to 2020. Although existing infrastructure, such as drive-through services, enabled limited-service restaurants to comply with Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic safety measures, these establishments still saw a 6.7-percent decline in annual spending. Full-service restaurants, which accounted for more FAFH spending than all other outlets from 1997 to 2019, experienced a decrease in spending of 31.7 percent in 2020. This was partly due to pandemic-related closures during some of the year. Hotels and motels, recreational places, and drinking places also experienced closures and capacity restrictions throughout much of 2020. Food spending fell 42.9 percent at hotels and motels, 37.7 percent at recreational places, and 40.7 percent at drinking places. Food expenditures at schools and colleges dropped 7.8 percent in 2020. The 2021 annual FES data will be released in June 2022 and will provide an update on these trends as well as other food spending data. This chart uses the FES data and appears in the ERS’s Amber Waves article, “Food Spending by U.S. Consumers Fell Almost 8 Percent in 2020”, October 2021.

Property income’s share of the food dollar reached 20-year high in 2020

Monday, May 16, 2022

In 2020, the average dollar spent by U.S. consumers on domestically produced food – called the food dollar – returned 39.4 cents as property income, which is income received by owners of capital assets (e.g. land, equipment, and patents) after paying for other intermediate inputs, labor, and output taxes. This 13.5-percent increase from 2019 brought property income’s share of the food dollar to the highest level since 1997. Conversely, the proportion of output taxes, or total taxes and government fees less subsidies, dropped by more than half from 2019 to 4.3 cents of the 2020 food dollar. This reflects increased agricultural subsidies as well as other government policies that affected taxes in 2020. Of the remaining food dollar, 51.6 cents compensated labor for wages and benefits while 4.7 cents went to imported ingredients and inputs. USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) annual Food Dollar Series provides insight into the industries that make up the U.S. food system and their contributions to total U.S. spending on domestically produced food. Annual shifts in the food dollar shares between primary factors occur for a variety of reasons, including changes in the mix of foods consumers buy, the balance of food consumed at home and away from home, and changes in primary factor markets for non-food production. The data for this chart are available for the years 1997 to 2020 and can be found in ERS’s Food Dollar Series data product, updated on March 17, 2022.

Higher retail meat prices during COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted U.S. households in 2020

Thursday, May 12, 2022

During 2020, U.S. households spent 14.5 percent more money to buy meat for at-home consumption as compared with 2019. This increase in spending reflected both an increase in the amount of meat households bought from retailers to offset reductions in what households previously consumed at restaurants and higher retail food prices. Using scanner data from Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers examined and compared U.S. households’ meat purchases in 2020 and 2019 to answer this question: If retail prices for at-home meats had remained at their 2019 levels throughout 2020, how much better off economically would U.S. households have been? Researchers estimated the amount of “welfare loss,” or reduction in U.S. households’ well-being, by determining how much more money would be needed to buy meat in response to retail price changes and be satisfied. Despite maintaining their overall level of meat consumption, U.S. households’ welfare losses in 2020 from increases in retail meat prices were largest during the late spring and early summer when operations at meat-packing plants were most affected by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Those losses peaked at $24.51 per household in June 2020. Higher prices that month for beef accounted for welfare losses of $8.30 per household, for poultry the losses were $8.18 per household, and for pork the losses were $7.07 per household. In December 2020, U.S. household welfare losses were down to $6.19 per household, with higher prices for beef, poultry, and pork accounting for $2.44, $1.89, and $1.54, respectively. This chart appears in the ERS report Quantifying Consumer Welfare Impacts of Higher Meat Prices During the COVID-19 Pandemic, released April 2022.

Food services industry share of food dollar shrank in 2020 after 8 consecutive years of growth

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

In 2020, restaurants and other eating-out establishments received 27.9 cents of an average dollar spent on domestically produced food, called the food dollar. This marks a 15.7-percent drop from 33.1 cents in 2019 as consumers reduced food-away-from-home purchases and increased purchases from food-at-home markets at the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. All other industry group shares expanded except for three that had no annual change in 2020: Advertising, Energy, and Legal and accounting. Notably, the Retail trade (10.1 percent), Wholesale trade (9.2 percent), and Packaging (6.9 percent) shares increased by the largest percentages for their respective industry group since the data series began. The USDA Economic Research Service’s (ERS) annual Food Dollar Series provides insight into the industries that make up the U.S. food system and their contributions to total U.S. spending on domestically produced food. ERS uses input-output analysis to calculate the cost contributions from 12 industry groups in the food supply chain. Annual shifts in the food dollar shares between industry groups occur for a variety of reasons, including changes in the mix of foods consumers buy, costs of materials, ingredients, and other inputs, as well as changes in the balance of food at home and away from home. The industry group shares dollar chart is available for 1993 to 2020 and can be found in ERS’s Food Dollar Series data product, updated on March 17, 2022.

Quick-service restaurants recovered faster than full-service after consumer spending fell in 2020

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Consumer spending at both full-service and quick-service restaurants initially fell following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, with noteworthy differences between the two. Before the pandemic (as of December 2019–February 2020), consumer spending at both quick-service and full-service restaurants was near or slightly above previous year levels. As of March–May 2020, spending at quick-service restaurants had dropped to about $20.1 billion, 15.4 percent lower than average spending a year earlier. Full-service restaurants experienced a more severe drop during this period, likely related to the mandates limiting in-person dining across much of the country. Spending fell to $7 billion, 51.7 percent lower than the year before. Quick-service restaurants recovered faster than full-service restaurants, with spending surpassing previous year levels for the last four months of 2020. In contrast, by the end of 2020, full-service restaurants retained a 24.8 percent drop in year-to-year spending. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Amber Waves article, “Spending Gap Between Full and Quick-Service Restaurants Widened During Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic”, April 2022 utilizing data from The NPD Group’s Consumer Reported Eating Share Trends (NPD CREST).

Restaurant transactions fell 47 percent in April 2020, compared with a year earlier, after onset of COVID-19 pandemic

Monday, March 28, 2022

On March 13, 2020, the Federal government declared a national emergency in response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In response, many State and local governments implemented social distancing measures, stay-at-home orders, and the mandatory closure of businesses in high-risk industries. Restaurants were often included in these mandates, which forced many to close their dining rooms, if not the entire business, sharply reducing restaurant visits across the country. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers recently examined the weekly percent change in restaurant transactions relative to a year prior to show how visits changed during the first few months of the pandemic. During the first full week after the national emergency declaration, there were 37 percent fewer restaurant transactions than the same week in 2019. The largest year-to-year changes occurred three weeks later, when transactions were down 47 percent relative to the year before. By the end of the year, weekly transactions remained 11 percent lower than they had been in 2019. This chart is based on a chart in the ERS’s COVID-19 Working Paper: The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Food-Away-From-Home Spending, released March 9, 2022.

Farm share of U.S. food dollar rose one cent in 2020, largest increase in nearly a decade, as food-at-home spending increased

Monday, March 21, 2022

On average, U.S. farmers received 16.0 cents for farm commodity sales from each consumer dollar spent on domestically produced food in 2020, up from a revised 15.0 cents in 2019. Known as the farm share, the one-cent rise is the largest increase in nearly a decade. The marketing share, on the other hand, goes to food-supply-chain industries that move domestically produced food from farms to points of purchase, including costs related to packaging, transporting, processing, and selling to consumers at grocery stores and eating-out places. In the first year of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, households redirected a substantial amount of their eating-out dollars, or food-away-from-home (FAFH) spending, toward food-at-home (FAH) markets such as grocery stores. Generally, farmers receive a smaller share from eating-out dollars because a larger portion is spent on preparing and serving meals at restaurants, cafeterias, and other food-service establishments. Historically, the farm share for FAH has averaged 24.3 cents, whereas the farm share for FAFH has averaged below six cents. Although farmers received a smaller share of retail dollars from food-at-home markets in 2020, they received a greater share of the overall food dollar because consumers made more purchases in FAH markets, where farmers receive a higher retail share than from FAFH markets. This gives the unusual result of total farm share rising more than both FAH and FAFH farm shares. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) uses input-output analysis to calculate the farm and marketing shares from a typical food dollar, including food purchased at grocery stores and at eating-out establishments. The data for this chart can be found in ERS’s Food Dollar Series data product, updated March 17, 2022.

Food prices were below overall inflation in 2021

Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Food prices overall increased by an average of 3.9 percent in 2021 compared to 2020, the highest annual increase since 2008. Food prices grew more slowly than the “all items” and transportation CPIs, but more quickly than all other of the “major groups” tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The CPI for all items rose 4.7 percent in 2021. Among the food categories that comprise the food CPI, the food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent for food-at-home (grocery stores or other purchases from food retailers). The highest price increases in food-at-home categories in 2021 were for beef and veal (9.3 percent), pork (8.6 percent), and fresh fruit (5.5 percent). Using the CPI data, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project overall food prices will increase between 2 and 3 percent in 2022. A five-year comparison of changes in major CPI categories is available in the Food Prices and Spending section of ERS’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product, and a time-series visualization of the data appears in the Food Price Environment data tool. More information on ERS’s monthly food price forecasts can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook (FPO) data product. The next FPO release is February 25, 2022.

2021 retail food price inflation continued at same pace as 2020, but varied among food categories

Friday, January 28, 2022

Retail food prices increased by 3.5 percent in 2021, equal to the rate in 2020 and greater than the historical annual average of 2.0 percent from 2000 to 2019. Of the 12 food categories depicted in the chart, six showed slower price increases in 2021 compared with 2020. Dairy products and fresh vegetables, in particular, had significantly slower price increases in 2021 than 2020 and their historical averages. Dairy product prices increased at 1.4 percent in 2021 versus 4.4 percent in 2020 and fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.1 percent compared to 2.6 percent is 2020. Conversely, prices in six food categories increased in 2021 at a faster rate than in 2020 as well as in years prior. Prices for fresh fruits, for instance, increased 5.5 percent in 2021 compared to a 0.8-percent decrease in 2020 and a 1.6-percent average increase over the prior 20 years. Inflationary pressures differ by food category. For example, meat prices, which rose the most of any included product groups, have been driven up by strong domestic and international demand, high feed costs, and supply chain disruptions. Winter storms and drought impacted meat prices in the spring, and processing facility closures due to cybersecurity attacks affected beef and other meat production in May. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers project that prices for food-at-home, or food purchased typically from grocery stores or other food stores, will increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent in 2022, lower than the 3.5-percent increase that occurred in both 2020 and 2021. Forecasts for all food categories for 2022 are available in ERS’s monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 25, 2022.

Inflation-adjusted monthly U.S. food spending in 2021 surpasses pre-pandemic levels

Friday, January 21, 2022

Total food spending in the United States generally follows seasonal trends. The lowest food spending levels usually occur in January and February, before rising in March and remaining at this higher level through August. Spending then drops from September through November before peaking during the December holidays. However, food economy disruptions following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in early 2020 altered historical monthly food spending trends in the United States. The USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Expenditure Series tracks food spending beginning in 1997. The largest monthly decline in food spending (23 percent) occurred in April 2020, and monthly food spending averaged 8.3 percent lower in 2020 than in 2019. Overall, total U.S. food spending has consistently increased over the years, even when accounting for inflation. Average inflation-adjusted monthly expenditures were 23.2 percent higher in 2019 than in 2011. Though total food spending in 2021 has followed the typical pattern, spending began the year below pre-pandemic levels but surpassed previous years beginning in March. The data for this chart come from the ERS’s Food Expenditure Series data product.