ERS Charts of Note
Subscribe to our Charts of Note series, which highlights economic research and analysis on agriculture, food, the environment, and rural America. Each week, this series highlights charts of interest from current and past ERS research.
At the end of the year, users can look forward to our Editors’ Picks of the Best of Charts of Note.
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
U.S. consumers baking a homemade apple pie for Thanksgiving this year can expect to pay about $8.80 for the ingredients, an increase of 8.0 percent from 2023. Higher prices for sugar, eggs, butter, and apples led to a $0.65 increase in the cost of a pie between 2023 and 2024. The price of the main ingredient, Granny Smith apples, increased by 5.0 percent to $1.48 per pound in October 2024 from $1.41 per pound in October 2023. Prices increased the most for eggs (60.0 percent), followed by butter (8.6 percent), between October 2023 and October 2024. The costs contributed by lemons and flour were the same in October 2024 as October 2023. If serving the apple pie à la mode, ice cream adds an additional $0.39 per scoop, an increase of $0.01 from last year. The most recent average price data are from October, meaning prices for Thanksgiving week may vary. For example, savings may occur if grocers offer holiday discounts. USDA, Economic Research Service tracks aggregate food category prices and publishes price forecasts in the monthly Food Price Outlook data product, updated on November 25, 2024.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Households spend more money on food as their incomes rise, but the amount spent represents a smaller share of their overall budgets. U.S. households were divided into five equal groups, or quintiles, by household income. Households in the lowest income quintile had an average after-tax income of $16,171 and spent an average of $5,278 on food (about $102 a week) in 2023, which amounted to 32.6 percent of their income. Households in the middle income quintile had an after-tax income of $66,606 and spent an average of $8,989 on food (about $173 a week), representing 13.5 percent of their income. Households in the highest income quintile, with an average after-tax income of $211,042, spent an average of $16,996 on food (about $327 a week) in 2023. The share of income spent on food for that group was much smaller at 8.1 percent. As households gain more disposable income, they often shift to more expensive food options, including dining out. Food spending as a share of income rose across all income quintiles in 2023, as food prices increased faster than the overall inflation rate of 4.1 percent. Total food prices increased 5.8 percent in 2023, and food-at-home (grocery) prices increased 5.0 percent. However, despite higher-than-average food price increases from 2020–23, households’ share of income spent on food in 2023 was lower than in 2019 for the lowest three income quintiles and slightly higher for the highest two income quintiles. This chart appears in the Food Prices and Spending section of the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product.
Monday, November 18, 2024
U.S. farm establishments received 15.9 cents per dollar spent on domestically produced food in 2023 as compensation for farm commodity production. This amount, called the farm share, is a decrease of 0.1 cent from the 2022 share, which was revised up to 16.0 cents from 14.9 cents. The farm share covers operating expenses as well as input costs from nonfarm establishments. The remaining portion of the food dollar—known as the marketing share—covers post-farm costs such as transporting, processing, and selling food to consumers. The primary data sources for the USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Dollar Series underwent substantial revisions that were incorporated in the latest release. Revisions can affect the measurement of things such as farm commodity inputs to food production in the domestic economy, and this can lead to changes in the previously published farm shares. ERS uses input–output analysis to calculate the farm and marketing shares of a food dollar, which is a dollar constructed to represent all domestic expenditures of U.S. food. The data for this chart can be found in the ERS Food Dollar Series data product, updated November 18, 2024.
Thursday, November 7, 2024
In 2023, U.S. consumers spent an average of 11.2 percent of their disposable personal income on food, consistent with the level observed in 2022. Disposable personal income is the amount of money that U.S. consumers have left to spend or save after paying taxes. Consumer preferences between food-at-home and food-away-from-home spending shifted over time and have returned to trends observed before the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Specifically, 5.3 percent of disposable personal income was spent on food at home, down from 5.6 percent in 2022. Conversely, expenditures on food away from home rose to 5.9 percent from 5.6 percent the previous year. This shows a growing consumer preference for dining out and buying prepared meals. Several factors may contribute to this shift, including lifestyle changes that emerged after the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, more desire for convenience in meal options, and an increase in disposable personal income, which rose by 8.1 percent in 2023. An increase in disposable personal income provides consumers with greater financial flexibility, allowing more dining experiences outside the home. The chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series data product, Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, the recently updated Interactive Charts: Food Expenditures and the Amber Waves article U.S. Consumers Increased Spending on Food Away From Home in 2023, Driving Overall Food Spending Growth.
Thursday, October 17, 2024
In 2022, there were 42,708 food and beverage manufacturing establishments in the United States, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census's County Business Patterns. Food and beverage manufacturing establishments turn raw food commodities into products for intermediate or final consumption. Food and beverage processing establishments are located throughout the United States, but California had the most such establishments at 6,569, or 15 percent of the total. Texas (2,898) and New York (2,748) were the second- and third-leading food and beverage manufacturing States. California led the Nation for every category of food and beverage manufacturing establishments except “animal slaughtering and processing,” for which Texas had 288 establishments, and “seafood processing and packaging,” for which Alaska had 86 establishments. The number of manufacturing establishments for other industry segments are also reported in County Business Patterns. This chart appears on the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food and Beverage Manufacturing topic page.
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020–25 defines fruits and vegetables to include fresh, canned, frozen, and dried products, as well as 100 percent juice. Eating or drinking a cup equivalent of all forms counts equally toward intake recommendations for both food groups. A cup equivalent is generally the edible portion—minus core, pits, and peel—that will fit in a 1-cup measuring cup. For lettuce and other raw leafy vegetables, a cup equivalent is 2 cups, and for raisins and other dried fruits, one-half cup. USDA, Economic Research Service researchers estimated national average retail prices paid in 2022 for 155 fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, all measured in cup equivalents. Neither fresh nor processed forms were consistently less expensive. While fresh carrots eaten raw ($0.30) cost less than canned carrots ($0.59) and fresh apples ($0.50) cost less than applesauce ($0.63), fresh corn ($1.50) was more expensive than frozen corn ($0.64) and fresh spinach ($1.77) was more expensive than frozen spinach ($1.10). Differences in retail prices may reflect prices received by growers, as well as differences in processing, handling, and spoilage costs, which can vary by form and product. This chart appears in the Amber Waves article Satisfying Fruit and Vegetable Recommendations Possible for Under $3 a Day, Data Analysis Shows, published September 2024.
Thursday, September 19, 2024
In 2023, full- and limited-service restaurants collectively accounted for more than two-thirds of U.S. food-away-from-home (FAFH) spending. Full-service establishments typically provide food services to customers who order and are served while seated and pay after eating, while in limited-service restaurants customers generally order and pay before eating and meals may be consumed on premises, taken out, or delivered to a specific location. Other FAFH outlets— hotels, schools, and drinking establishments, among others—accounted for the nearly remaining third of spending in 2023. In 1997, full-service restaurants received the largest share of food-away-from-home spending at 35.9 percent. However, that share began to decrease during the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009) and then sharply declined in early 2020 during the brief recession at the start of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Conversely, limited-service restaurant spending reached 34.6 percent in 2010, peaked at 37.6 percent in 2020, and received the largest share of food-away-from-home spending through 2023. The data for this chart come from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series.
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
According to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020–2025, 80 percent of individuals consume less than the recommended amounts of fruit. One reason may be that some consumers think fruit is an expensive food item. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) calculated average consumer prices paid in 2022 for 62 fresh and processed fruits measured in cup equivalents. A cup equivalent is the edible portion that will generally fit in a 1-cup measuring cup for most fruits or one-half cup for raisins and other dried fruits. The recommended amount of fruit a person should eat per day depends on age, sex, and level of activity. For a 2,000-calorie diet, 2 cup equivalents of fruits per day is recommended. Fresh watermelon at 24 cents per cup equivalent and apple juice (made from concentrate) at 30 cents were the lowest priced fruits, while fresh blackberries ($2.25), fresh raspberries ($2.58), and canned cherries ($3.56) were the priciest. Thirty out of 62 fruits cost less than $1 per cup equivalent in 2022. The data in this chart are from the ERS Fruit and Vegetable Prices data product updated May 23, 2024.
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Retail food prices increased 0.9 percent in the first 6 months of 2024, lower than the midyear rate in 2023 (4.8 percent) and the 20-year average for midyear inflation from 2003 to 2022 (1.9 percent). Prices increased the most for sugar and sweets (2.7 percent) so far in 2024, followed by fats and oils (2.1 percent), while prices declined for fish and seafood (-1.8 percent) and dairy products (-0.8 percent) compared with 2023. All food categories except for sugar and sweets and nonalcoholic beverages experienced lower-than-average price increases through the first half of 2024. Compared with recent years, price growth slowed across categories partly because of economy-wide factors, such as reductions in supply chain congestion and softening consumer demand for goods, although price trends differ by food category. For example, prices for cereals and bakery products showed minimal growth since mid-2023, following strong price increases throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. In contrast, the midyear inflation rate for meats in 2024 exceeded its growth in the first half of 2023. Prices will continue to change during the remainder of 2024 and may affect the annual inflation rate. The USDA, Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook forecasts food-at-home prices will increase 1.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -0.1 to 2.1 percent, and the forecast was last updated July 25, 2024.
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Food spending in the United States reached an all-time high in 2023. However, accounting for food price inflation and population growth reveals a nuanced narrative over time. Even after adjusting for inflation (known as constant terms), per capita food-away-from-home (FAFH) spending rebounded after a 15.6-percent drop in 2020 with an average annual increase of 10 percent since 2021. This trend resulted in an 11.9-percent increase in FAFH spending in 2023 compared with 2019, outpacing prepandemic trends. In contrast, constant per capita food-at-home (FAH) spending declined 2.3 percent in 2022 and 3.1 percent in 2023, following stable annual increases averaging 2.8 percent from 2016 to 2021. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series data product, updated in June 2024, and Interactive Charts: Food Expenditures, updated in September 2023.
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Consumers planning Fourth of July cookouts might wonder how the cost of a burger stacks up to last year. If you like yours with lettuce and tomato, the cost of ingredients for a home-prepared quarter-pound cheeseburger totaled $2.22 per burger in May 2024. The same cheeseburger cost $2.18 to prepare in May 2023, an increase of 4 cents (1.8 percent). Prices rose over the year for ground beef (by 3.8 percent), tomato (3.4 percent), and bread (1.0 percent) and fell for Cheddar cheese (-5.0 percent) and iceberg lettuce (-0.5 percent). Ground beef accounted for more than half of the total burger cost, at $1.29 per 4-ounce patty, which was a 5-cent increase from 2023. The cost of a tomato slice grew one cent to $0.23 in May 2024. These higher prices were partially offset by the lower cost of Cheddar cheese in May 2024, which sliced 2 cents off the total burger cost by falling from $0.37 to $0.35. USDA Radio featured a related sound bite, The Cost of that Fourth of July Burger, in June 2024. USDA, Economic Research Service tracks aggregate food category prices and publishes price forecasts in the Food Price Outlook data product, last updated on June 25, 2024.
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Prices for food away from home (FAFH), or eating out, grew more quickly from 2014–24 than food at home (FAH), and the overall rate of inflation. Prices for all consumer goods and services across the economy, as measured by the all-items Consumer Price Index, rose by 34.3 percent between January 2014 and May 2024. FAFH prices climbed steadily over the past decade and were 49.5 percent higher in May 2024 than January 2014, while prices for FAH, or groceries, rose 29.9 percent. Although FAH prices grew at a faster rate than the overall inflation rate at times, particularly between 2020 and 2023, FAH also had periods of minimal price change from 2015 to 2019 and since 2023, as illustrated by the relatively flat slope of the line. Food prices can be affected by economy-wide inflationary factors, such as rising input and energy prices, but the distinct services and industries that contribute to FAFH and FAH costs can lead to differing price patterns over time. USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Dollar Series shows that the food services industry group contributes the largest share of FAFH costs, and salaries and benefits account for a majority of costs in that industry group. In contrast, the industries contributing the largest shares of FAH costs are food processing and retail and wholesale trade. The ERS Food Price Environment: Interactive Visualization, last updated in February 2024, presents annual FAH and FAFH inflation over time and provides context for the Food Price Outlook data product.
Thursday, June 13, 2024
The share of food spending at restaurants and similar food-away-from-home (FAFH) establishments has generally increased over time in the United States, although this trend varies across States. Hawaii, Nevada, and Washington, DC, stand out as outliers in terms of the share of per capita FAFH sales. In 1997, FAFH sales stood notably higher in Washington, DC at 73.5 percent, Nevada at 59.0 percent, and Hawaii at 56.2 percent than in other States at 41.6 percent. Each of those numbers grew by 2023 to 76.2 percent in Washington, DC, 63.9 percent in Nevada, 63.5 percent in Hawaii, and 53.0 percent in other States. The three outliers experienced more significant disruptions in food spending patterns in 2020 during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In Washington, DC, the share of FAFH sales fell 9.1 percentage points from 2019 to 2020, while Hawaii and Nevada’s share decreased 9.0 percentage points and 7.5 percentage points, respectively. The eating-out share in other States decreased 4.6 percentage points in that period. In most States, the FAFH share grew rapidly from 2020 to 2023. Nevada’s and Hawaii’s share grew at least 8 percentage points over the three years, while all other States grew 6.9 percentage points, on average. While Washington, DC’s FAFH share grew 7 percentage points over the period, it remained more than 12 percentage points higher than Nevada’s and Hawaii’s in 2023. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s State-level Food Expenditure Series and the Amber Waves article Analyzing Food Sales Trends at the State Level Using New Series, published June 2024.
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Compared to urban independent grocery stores, rural independent grocery stores were nearly three times more likely to close following the opening of a new dollar store in the same census tract from 2000–19. Using proprietary data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database and the ERS Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) Codes, researchers from USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), North Dakota State University, and the University of Connecticut examined how entry of new dollar stores in urban and rural census tracts affected the number, employment, and sales statistics of independent grocery stores in these areas from 2000–19. When a new dollar store opened in a rural area, the likelihood of an independent grocery store closing was 5 percent, which was nearly three times greater than in urban areas (1.7 percent). Similarly, the decline in employment at independent grocers in rural census tracts was about 2.5 times as large as in urban tracts (7.1 percent versus 2.8 percent, respectively). Sales declined 9.2 percent at independent grocery stores in rural areas, which was nearly double the decline in urban areas (4.7 percent). Researchers also found that these changes waned in urban areas about 5 years after a new dollar store’s opening, whereas the effects continued in rural areas, indicating longer term impacts. This chart appears in the ERS Amber Waves article, Dollar Store Entry Affects Rural Grocery Stores More Than Urban, published May 2024.
Thursday, May 30, 2024
USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) recently estimated average retail prices paid by U.S. consumers in 2022 for 93 fresh and processed vegetable products. These prices are reported in cup equivalents, the unit in which Federal dietary recommendations for this food group are stated. Across the 93 vegetables, 19 cost less than 50 cents per cup equivalent, including baked white potatoes (27 cents), iceberg lettuce (32 cents), and onions (43 cents). Another 54 vegetable products cost between 50 and 99 cents per cup equivalent. These products included romaine lettuce (51 cents) and large round tomatoes (90 cents). In 2022, the most expensive vegetable product for U.S. consumers was frozen asparagus at $2.62 per cup equivalent. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2020-2025 recommends individuals with a 2,000 calorie per day diet consume 2.5 cup equivalents of vegetables each day. U.S. consumers have historically fallen short. ERS estimated an average of 1.5 cups of vegetables and legumes were consumed on a given day in 2017–18. People choose foods based on taste, convenience, and other factors in addition to dietary recommendations. Cost, in particular, has been cited as a possible barrier to increasing vegetable intake. This chart is drawn from the ERS Fruit and Vegetable Prices data product, updated May 23, 2024.
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Food-at-home prices, especially for fresh produce, fluctuate throughout the year depending on seasonal shifts in supply and demand. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Food Purchase Groups (EFPGs) separate fresh vegetables into seven distinct categories: potatoes, tomatoes, other starchy vegetables, other red and orange vegetables, dark green vegetables, legumes (includes dried), and other/mixed vegetables. The ERS Food-at-Home Monthly Area Prices (F-MAP) data from 2016 through 2018 reveal that seasonal price variation is most pronounced in the other starchy vegetables category. The most common vegetable in that category is corn. The category with the least seasonal price variation is dark green vegetables. Fresh vegetables that are primarily sourced domestically or from North American trading partners may be more readily available in the summer months, causing prices to drop during that time. Spending on other starchy vegetables is highest in the summer months, which coincides with the lowest prices for these products, suggesting a demand response to lower prices and higher availability. Food-at-home price variation is measured in two ways using price indexes, or unitless measures of the cost of a basket of goods that can be used to track price change over time. First, standard deviations across monthly price indexes show how much prices deviate from the average. Second, ranges of monthly price indexes (i.e., the maximum price index minus the minimum price index) capture the difference between periods of seasonally low prices and periods of seasonally high prices. This chart is drawn from the ERS F-MAP data product, which is described in the ERS report Development of the Food-at-Home Monthly Area Prices Data, published in March 2024.
Monday, April 29, 2024
Primary factors are the resources used by firms to convert raw materials and intermediate goods into finished products and services. In 2022, the primary factor shares across the domestic food supply chain were 5.0 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food for imports, 8.8 cents for output taxes, 36.8 cents for property income, and 49.3 cents for salaries and benefits. These primary factors can also be separated by industry groups, which are collections of establishments that produce similar types of products or services, including transportation, food processing, and retail trade. The foodservices industry group, which includes eating and drinking establishments such as restaurants, received a total of 34.1 cents of each dollar spent on domestically produced food. Of this amount, salary and benefits were 20.3 cents and property income was 9.7 cents. These costs in the foodservices industry group rank as the two highest primary factor costs of all the 12 industry groups measured in the Food Dollar Series. Additionally, 3.6 cents went to output taxes, such as excise, sales, and other taxes on production, less subsidies; and 0.5 cents went to embedded imports—imported ingredients and equipment used in domestic production. This chart uses information in the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Food Dollar Series data product, updated November 15, 2023, and the Amber Waves article ERS Food Dollar's Three Series Show Distributions of U.S. Food Production Costs, published in December 2023.
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
As summertime approaches, it may interest shoppers that U.S. farmers have received more than half of what consumers paid for fresh strawberries since 2020. In 2023, the average retail price for fresh strawberries was $3.80 per pound, a few cents less than in 2022, but about 52 cents more than in 2019 and 75 cents more than in 2014. Marketing costs, including payments to firms for packing, transporting, wholesaling, and retailing fresh strawberries, have been down since 2020. However, farm level prices, which factor into retail prices, have been generally higher. In the farm share calculations, USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates that about 8 percent of fresh strawberries is lost through spoilage and trimming, so it’s assumed marketers buy about 1.09 pounds of fresh strawberries from farmers for each pound they sell at retail. Using this adjusted volume, the farm share of the retail price—the ratio of what farmers receive to what consumers pay per pound in grocery stores—was 53 percent in 2023. More information on ERS farm share data can be found in the Price Spreads from Farm to Consumer data product, updated February 27, 2024.
Monday, April 15, 2024
Retail food price inflation varies by locality. In 2023, food-at-home (grocery) prices rose the fastest in Houston, TX, by 7.8 percent, followed by Boston, MA, at 7.0 percent. In contrast, food-at-home prices declined by 1.3 percent in 2023 in Anchorage, AK, and rose by the lowest amount (1.7 percent) in Honolulu, HI. Across the United States, food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent on average in 2023. Differences in retail overhead expenses, such as labor and rent, can explain some of the variation among cities, because retailers often pass local cost increases to consumers in the form of higher prices. Furthermore, differences in consumer purchasing patterns for specific foods may help explain variation in inflation rates among cities. Products that consumers purchase vary regionally, and each metro area’s inflation rate is calculated based on a representative set of foods unique to the area. For example, an area whose residents purchase more foods with slower price inflation (such as fresh fruits and vegetables at 0.7 and 0.9 percent average growth in 2023, respectively) might experience lower food-at-home price inflation than an area whose residents buy more cereals and bakery products or nonalcoholic beverages, which increased by 8.4 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively, in 2023. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Food Price Environment: Interactive Visualization, last updated in February 2024, which presents the 10-year average change in prices by metro area and provides context for the Food Price Outlook data product.
Thursday, March 28, 2024
For the fourth straight year, the U.S. farm share of retail prices for fresh, field-grown tomatoes remained above 35 percent in 2023. The farm share is the ratio of what farmers receive to what consumers pay per pound in grocery stores. Retail prices have been mostly stable near $1.92 per pound since 2016. This stability has occurred despite generally higher farm prices since 2020. Farm prices, the amount growers received per pound of fresh tomatoes, fell 7 cents in 2023 from 2022, based on a simple average of monthly prices. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates farm-to-retail price spreads for field-grown, fresh-market tomatoes using a simple average of monthly retail prices reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and monthly farm-level prices reported by the USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). This approach gives equal weight to all months of the year. Same-month farm prices were lower during much of 2023 compared with 2022. However, production is seasonal. In 2023, farm prices were higher during peak domestic production periods than they were during the same periods in 2022. NASS season average price data show farm prices were up about 3.5 cents per pound on an annual basis that gives more weight to months with greater domestic production. The farm share of retail prices would have been even higher in 2023 if viewed on this basis. More information on ERS farm share data can be found in the Price Spreads from Farm to Consumer data product, updated February 27, 2024.