Documentation

The Agricultural Baseline Database provides 10-year projections for the agricultural sector.  Long-term projections cover macroeconomic and farm policy assumptions, agricultural crop and livestock commodities, farm income, and agricultural trade. The database includes projections for major field crops (corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, soybeans, and upland cotton) and livestock (beef, pork, poultry/eggs, and dairy).

These agricultural projections, also referred to as “baseline” projections, are developed using specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The projections assume that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather or other factors affecting global supply and demand. Provisions of current law are assumed to remain in effect throughout the time period of these projections. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade, meant to represent underlying trends. As such, the projections provide a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions.

In developing projections, USDA economists use a range of data from internal and external sources, including historical data on commodity supply and use, farm income, macroeconomic conditions, and energy prices. 

Some of the main USDA datasets used to develop agricultural projections can be accessed on the ERS website.

Note: Beginning with the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031 report, the term “Biofuel” will replace the term “soybean oil, for methyl ester” in the soybean oil section. This change reflects recent changes to the monthly biofuels data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections now follow the phrase soybean oil used for biofuel, as reported in the EIA’s Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update.

Field Crops: 

Animal Products: 

Farm Income

International Macroeconomic Data Set