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U.S. Agricultural Trade - Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2025 Forecast at $170.5 Billion; Imports revised upwards to $219.5 Billion

The following interactive content provides highlights from the:

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: February 2025

Viz: U.S. agricultural trade

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 are projected at $170.5 billion, up $500 million from the November forecast, as higher grain and feed exports offset reductions to the oilseed outlook. Grain and feed exports are projected at $37.7 billion, up $1.2 billion from November, led by higher corn exports, which increased $1.4 billion on higher volumes and unit values. Along with higher feed and fodder exports, these increases more than offset moderately lower wheat, sorghum, and rice exports. Oilseed and product exports are forecast at $32.4 billion, a $1.1-billion reduction from the previous quarter, primarily due to lower soybean unit values resulting from strong South American competition. Cotton exports are forecast down $200 million to $4.1 billion on lower volumes. Exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy are forecast up $400 million to $39.7 billion on increases to beef and dairy products. Horticultural product exports are unchanged at $41.7 billion. Ethanol exports are forecast at $4.2 billion, unchanged from the November outlook, as higher volumes offset lower export unit values. 

Mexico is forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports at a record $30.2 billion, a $300-million increase from the previous forecast based on strong sales of dairy, wheat, and other products during the first quarter. Exports to Canada are forecast down $800 million to $28.4 billion due to weaker-than-expected shipments to date. Exports to China are cut by $1.3 billion to $22.0 billion, largely due to reduced prospects for U.S. soybeans, grains, and cotton.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2025 are forecast at $219.5 billion, an increase of $4.0 billion from the November projection that is largely driven by higher import values of horticultural products as well as sugar and tropical products.

Viz: U.S. agricultural exports and imports (by commodity) Viz: Total U.S. agricultural exports and imports

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the February 11, 2025, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release.