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U.S. Rice Production Projected to Decline 15 Percent in 2026/27
The May 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) includes the first projection of the 2026/27 U.S. rice crop—forecast at 175.2 million hundredweight (cwt), down more than 31 million cwt and 15 percent from the prior year’s production. New crop rice production is projected to be the lowest since 2022/23 and is attributable to U.S. farmers planting 493,000 fewer acres of rice in 2026/27. This 17-percent year-to-year reduction in harvested area to 2.27 million acres is partially offset by a 3-percent increase in projected yields, up 188 pounds per acre from last year, to 7,732 pounds. Harvested area is estimated based on the 10-year average harvested-to-planted ratio using planted area from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings report and will be updated in the July 2026 WASDE when USDA, NASS updates the planted and harvested area in the Acreage report, released June 30. The forecast yield is based on 10-year yield trends by class.