Market Outlook

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The Philippines 2025 Rice Import Forecast Raised 500,000 Tons to a Record 4.7 Million

The only revision to the 2024/25 U.S. rice balance sheet this month is a 1.0-million hundredweight (cwt) reduction in the carryin forecast to 39.8 million cwt, still 32 percent larger than a year earlier. The smaller carryin forecast is the result of a higher 2023/24 export forecast that is raised 1.0 million cwt to 95.0 million. The reduced carryin lowered the 2024/25 ending stocks forecast 1.0 million cwt to 44.5 million cwt, still 12 percent above a year earlier. On an annual basis, in 2024/25, the combination of a big increase in carryin, record imports, and a slightly larger crop result in record total rice supplies of 304.5 million cwt. On the use side, a 5-percent increase in exports to 100.0 million cwt, plus a 2-percent growth in total domestic and residual use to a record 160.0 million cwt, result in record total use of 260.0 million cwt. These supply and use projections result in a 12-percent increase in U.S. ending stocks in 2024/25 to 44.5 million cwt. The 2024/25 all-rice season-average farm price (SAFP) remains forecast at $15.60 per cwt, $2.40 below a year earlier and the second consecutive year of a decline in the all-rice SAFP.

Global rice trade in calendar year 2025 is projected at 53.8 million tons (milled basis), unchanged from last month’s forecast but down 0.8 million tons from a year earlier. There were no 2025 export revisions this month. On the 2025 import side, the Philippines’ import forecast is raised 500,000 tons to a record 4.7 million, and Kenya’s import forecast is raised 200,000 tons to 800,000. For calendar year 2024, global trade is forecast at 54.6 million tons, up 1.1 million from the previous forecast and 1.4 million tons above a year earlier. Export forecasts for 2024 are raised this month for India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam, but lowered for Uruguay. Import forecasts for 2024 are raised this month for Iraq, Kenya, and the Philippines.