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Global 2025/26 Cotton Ending Stocks Decline as Mill Use Outpaces Production
Note: Effective April 2025, Cotton and Wool Outlook will publish at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2025/26 (August–July) indicate a decrease in world cotton ending stocks to 76.8 million bales, slightly below 2024/25 but the third- highest since 2015/16. Global cotton production is estimated at 117.0 million bales, 2.5 percent (2.9 million bales) below last year. Mill use is projected to increase slightly (1 percent) to 117.8 million bales in 2025/26, the highest in 5 years.
Global cotton trade for 2025/26 is projected to increase 5 percent and help support the increase in mill demand expectations. Global cotton exports are forecast at 44.8 million bales, 2.2 million above last year and the highest since 2020/21. The leading cotton exporters are Brazil and the United States, where projected exports account for 32 percent and 28 percent, respectively, of the 2025/26 world total. Global cotton prices for 2025/26 are expected to remain near the 2024/25 level of 80 cents per pound.