Documentation

Description

International baseline projections indicate the possible long-term supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural commodities for major exporting and importing countries and regions. These projections provide foreign country details supporting the USDA’s Agricultural Projections report, released in February each year. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. Examination of the long-term (10 years) agriculture projections, in addition to historic data, better inform decisions related to agricultural policy and business. Projections of key market indicators help decision makers evaluate the impact of various courses of action.

Scope/Coverage of Data

The International Baseline consists of 44 country- and region-specific models, which are used to generate 10-year projections. Each model contains up to 32 commodities or commodity aggregates, with an average of 12 commodities per model. The standard commodity set includes livestock products, grains, oilseeds and oilseed products, cotton, and sugar. The international baseline commodity projection data that can be downloaded include; barley, beef, corn, cotton, pork, poultry, rice, sorghum, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and wheat.

International Baseline Data Sets

Visualization: International Baseline Projections

International baseline individual country and regional models ¹
North America
Canada
United States
Europe
European Union
Other Europe
Other Former Soviet Union
Russia
Ukraine
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Central America & Caribbean
Cuba
Mexico
Other South America
Middle East
Iran
Iraq
Other Middle East
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Africa
Egypt
Morocco
Nigeria
Other ECOWAS ²
Other North Africa
Other Sub-Saharan Africa
Republic of South Africa
Asia & Oceania
Australia
Bangladesh
Burma
China
Cambodia
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
New Zealand
Other Asia & Oceania
Pakistan
Philippines
Republic of South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Remainder
Rest of World

¹ Regional models are italicized

² Economic Community of West African States 

Regional Models are an aggregate of all the countries in the model. The regional models contain the following countries:

  • Central America and Caribbean- Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, French West Indies, Greenland, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica and Dependencies, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, United States Virgin Islands
  • Other Asia and Oceania- Afghanistan, Bhutan, Brunei, Burma (excluding rice), Cambodia (excluding rice), Fiji, French Polynesia, Hone Kong (excluding wheat, rice), India (for pork), Indonesia (for beef), Kiribati and Tuvalu Gilbert, Laos, Macau, Malaysia (for beef), Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, New Caledonia, New Zealand (excluding beef), North Korea, Pakistan (for pork), Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Tonga, Vanuatu, Vietnam (for beef), Western Samoa

  • Other Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)- Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde Islands, Cote D'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo

  • Other Europe- Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, United Kingdom

  • Other Former Soviet Union- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

  • Other Middle East- Bahrain, Former Yemen North Sanaa, Former Yemen South Aden, Iran (for cotton, and livestock products), Iraq (excluding grains), Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (for cotton, pork), Syria, Turkey (for pork), United Arab Emirates, Yemen

  • Other North Africa- Algeria, Egypt (for pork), Libya, Morocco (excluding wheat, rice, corn, barley, and sorghum), Tunisia

  • Other South America- Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela

  • Other Sub-Saharan Africa- Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Cameron, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros Islands, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa, formerly Zaire), Djibouti, ECOWAS (for livestock products), Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

  • Rest of World- Soybeans and products: Other sub-Saharan Africa; Cotton: Russia; Beef and veal: Other sub-Saharan Africa; Pork: Other Middle East, Other North Africa, Other sub-Saharan Africa

Standard commodity coverage in the country and regional models ¹
Livestock products
Beef and veal
Pork
Poultry meat (chicken and turkey)
Eggs
Fluid milk
Grains
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Barley
Sorghum
Other coarse grains (oats, millet, rye, mixed grains)
Other crops
Cotton
Sugar
Oilseeds
Soybeans
Rapeseed
Sunflowerseed
Other Oilseeds
Copra
Cottonseed
Groundnuts
Palm Kernel
Meals
Soybean meal
Rapeseed meal
Sunflowermeal
Other meals
Copra meal
Cottonseed meal
Groundnuts meal
Palm kernel meal
Fishmeal
Oils
Soybean oil
Rapeseed oil
Sunflowerseed oil
Other oils
Coconut oil
Cottonseed oil
Groundnut oil
Palm oil
Olive oil
¹ All commodities are not necessarily included in each country or regional model

The international baseline models used to create the 10-year projections include supply, demand, price, trade, macroeconomic, and policy variables. Below is a categorized table of select key variables used in the models.

Model variables ¹
Supply
Area harvested
Yield
Production
Beginning stocks
Ending stocks
Birth rate
Breeding herd
Inventory
Demand
Total food demand
Per capita food demand
Total consumption
Feed demand
Seed, industrial waste
Macroeconomic
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Per capita GDP
GDP deflator
Exchange rates
Population
Consumer price indices
Trade
Imports
Exports
Prices
World prices
Border prices
Transportation costs
Support prices
Guarantee prices
Petroleum prices
Policies
Tariffs
Subsidies
Taxes
Tariff-rate quota (TRQ)
Exchange rates

¹ All model variables are not listed, only select key model variables

Methods

The models use economic behavioral relationships to project production, use, and trade quantities based on the world and domestic commodity market prices and assumed macroeconomic conditions. Domestic market prices are usually linked to world prices, but the models filter the world prices through import and export tariffs and domestic agricultural policy variables such as support prices and producer and consumer subsidies.

The Excel-based country and regional model equations are extracted, converted to Fortran, and run together with a linking procedure to allow a global solution for equilibrium prices and trade. The linking method iteratively adjusts world prices until imports and exports balance across all countries for each major agricultural commodity market. The solution algorithm uses a numerical version of Newton’s method, with each slope (trade change versus price change) observed from the previous price-adjustment iteration. The price adjustments are repeated within Gauss-Seidel loops until all commodity markets are simultaneously cleared (meaning that world imports and exports are balanced). During the solution, each country model receives the adjusted world prices and responds, as domestic prices change in response to world price changes, generating changes in its production, consumption, imports, exports, and other variables.

The primary source of historical supply and demand data is the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) database. The database includes most grains, oilseeds and products, cotton, sugar, livestock, and livestock products. Supply-side variables include beginning stocks or animal inventory, area harvested or slaughter, yield, production, and imports. Demand-side variables include food, feed, industrial use, other use, ending stocks, and exports.

Some livestock product data are unavailable for one or more countries in the PSD dataset. To include more market participants, missing data are culled from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT).  The commodities for which data from FAOSTAT are used include beef and veal, pork, poultry (chicken and turkey) meat, eggs, and lamb and mutton.

*For more information on the methodology used in the international baseline projection process, please see ERS Technical Bulletin Number 1951.

Strengths and Limitations

Strengths

The international baseline projections are among a limited number of long-term international agricultural projections produced by USDA. The modeling system links countries and regions to better reflect market conditions for the 44 select exporting and importing countries and regions. While the models can be run in isolation, in most cases the models are solved simultaneously across 24 commodity markets, obtaining equilibrium world prices and balanced trade.

Limitations

The projections only include policies that are in place or are already expected to be implemented as of October of the most recent year. Critical long-term assumptions are made for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The baseline process is undertaking assumptions that no domestic or external shocks during the projection period would affect global agricultural supply and demand. Changes in these assumptions can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes. 

Resources:

ERS:

Other:

Recommended Citation:

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. International Baseline Data, May 2022.