Summary Findings
Food Price Outlook, 2024 and 2025
This page summarizes the August 2024 forecasts, which incorporate the July 2024 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.1 percent from June 2024 to July 2024 and was up 2.9 percent from July 2023. The CPI for all food increased 0.3 percent from June 2024 to July 2024, and food prices were 2.2 percent higher than in July 2023.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from June 2024 to July 2024 and was 1.1 percent higher than July 2023; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.2 percent in July 2024 and was 4.1 percent higher than July 2023.
Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.7 to 2.8 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.4 to 2.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.8 to 4.5 percent. In 2025, food prices are expected to increase more slowly than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.0 percent, with a prediction interval of -3.2 to 7.5 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.1 percent, with a prediction interval of -6.6 to 9.4 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.3 to 5.9 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the workbooks) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged: while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second-half of the year. No food categories tracked by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) decreased in price in 2021 compared with their prices in 2020.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices, along with the conflict in Ukraine, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs. All food price categories increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent. Food price growth slowed in 2023 as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent. While prices increased for all food categories except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
From June to July 2024, prices increased for 11 food-at-home categories and declined for 4 categories. Prices were also lower in July 2024 than July 2023 for four food-at-home categories: fish and seafood, fresh fruits, dairy products, and other meats. Prices are predicted to increase in 2024 for 12 food-at-home categories and decrease for 3 categories, though the measures of uncertainty do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices during the year for many categories. In 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Beef and veal prices increased by 1.8 percent in July 2024 and have increased for 5 straight months. Prices for beef and veal were 4.5 percent higher than in July 2023 due to tight supplies and continued demand and are predicted to increase the most of all categories in 2024. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 5.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 2.9 to 8.4 percent.
Prices for fish and seafood fell by 1.1 percent in July 2024 and were 1.6 percent lower than July 2023. Fish and seafood are expected to experience the largest decline in prices across categories in 2024, partially due to weaker demand. Prices for fish and seafood are predicted to decrease 1.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.6 to -0.3 percent.
Retail egg prices rose by 5.7 percent in July 2024 after falling for the prior 3 months. An outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022 contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock. New confirmations of HPAI in egg layers beginning in November 2023 drove price increases in late 2023 and early 2024. Egg prices in July 2024 were 19.1 percent higher than those in July 2023 but still well below peak prices in January 2023. Price impacts of the HPAI outbreak will be monitored closely. Egg prices are predicted to increase 2.4 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.8 to 8.5 percent. This wide prediction interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.
Fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.2 percent in July 2024 and were 0.4 percent higher than July 2023. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to increase 1.3 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -0.6 to 3.2 percent.
Prices fell by 0.3 percent from June to July 2024 for the other foods category, which included a 1.6 percent decrease for snacks. The other foods category also includes soups, frozen prepared foods, sauces and condiments, baby food, and other miscellaneous foods. Prices for other foods are predicted to increase 1.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.0 to 1.9 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that it reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods. The farm- and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the downstream CPIs. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2024, prices are predicted to increase for six PPI categories and decrease for seven categories. Greater volatility in farm- and wholesale-level prices lead to wider prediction intervals for these products compared to retail-level products.
Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 3.5 percent in July 2024, a relatively small monthly change after prices fell by 33.6 percent in May and rose by 55.4 percent in June. The ongoing HPAI outbreak continues to affect egg-layer flocks, with volatile effects on prices. In July 2024, prices for farm-level eggs were 90.7 percent higher than July 2023, when prices had fallen following the initial onset of HPAI in 2022. The effects of recent HPAI cases on farm-level egg prices will be closely monitored. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 20.2 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -1.9 to 61.3 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Farm-level milk prices rose by 5.1 percent in July 2024 and were 37.8 percent higher than July 2023, which was a low for farm-level milk prices following high prices throughout 2022. Wholesale dairy prices rose by 1.2 percent in July 2024 and were 9.4 percent higher than July 2023. Farm-level milk prices are predicted to increase 11.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 2.6 to 21.5 percent. Wholesale dairy prices are predicted to increase 3.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.0 to 6.2 percent.
Prices for wholesale fats and oils rose by 2.3 percent in July 2024 but were 2.9 percent lower than July 2023 and are predicted to decline on average in 2024. Prices for wholesale fats and oils are predicted to decrease by 8.4 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -11.5 to -5.1 percent.
Prices for farm-level wheat fell by 11.0 percent in July 2024 after decreasing by 9.8 percent in June. Wholesale wheat flour prices also decreased in July, falling by 1.7 percent. After peaking in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, prices for both farm-level wheat and wholesale wheat flour fell steadily throughout 2023 and the first few months of 2024. While prices briefly spiked in May 2024 due to expectations of tighter global wheat supplies, prices resumed a downward trend in June and July and are predicted to be lower on average in 2024 compared to 2023. In July 2024, farm-level wheat and wholesale wheat flour prices were 29.4 percent and 7.1 percent lower, respectively, than July 2023. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 22.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -27.5 to -15.0 percent. Wholesale wheat flour prices are predicted to decrease 6.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -9.6 to -3.5 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.