Significant declines in food insecurity expected by 2029 for many low- and middle income countries
ERS’s annual International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) estimates and projects levels of food insecurity at a national level for 76 low- and middle-income countries. ERS projects per capita food consumption based on food prices and income and evaluates it against a daily caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per day—the lower bound of average calorie requirements across all regions, assuming a healthy and active lifestyle. In 2019, 19 percent of the population in the 76 studied countries is estimated to be food insecure. This means that about 728 million people—out of a population of 3.8 billion in the studied countries—consume fewer than 2,100 calories a day. By 2029, based on projected income growth and sustained low food prices, the share of food-insecure people in these countries is expected to decline to 9 percent and the number to 399 million. The biggest improvements are projected for Asia, where strong economic growth, particularly in India and Southeast Asia, combined with slowing population growth, contribute to increasing per capita incomes and expected improved food security by 2029. This chart appears in the ERS report, “International Food Security Assessment, 2019-2029,” released in August 2019.
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