Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2023 Forecast at $190.0 Billion; Imports at $199.0 Billion

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: November 2022

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are projected at $190.0 billion, down $3.5 billion from the August forecast. This decrease is primarily driven by reductions in soybeans, cotton, and corn exports that are partially offset by gains in beef, poultry, and wheat. Soybean exports are forecast down $2.4 billion to $32.8 billion due to smaller production and increased competition from South America. Cotton exports are forecast down $1.0 billion to $6.0 billion based on lower unit values and subdued demand. Grain and feed exports are projected to decrease by $300 million to $46.2 billion, with declines in corn, sorghum, and rice exports partially offset by higher exports of wheat and feeds and fodders. The forecast for corn is down $600 million to $18.5 billion on lower volumes. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to increase by $300 million to $41.4 billion, as increases in beef, poultry, and variety meat exports more than offset declines in pork and the value of dairy exports. Beef exports are up $500 million to $10.3 billion, driven by higher prices. Ethanol exports are unchanged at $4.2 billion from the August forecast and remain a record if realized. Horticultural product exports are unchanged at $39.5 billion.

Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $34.0 billion, down $2.0 billion from the August projection, due to lower export prospects for soybeans, cotton, sorghum, and pork. China is expected to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $199.0 billion, up $2.0 billion from the August forecast, largely driven by higher imports of horticultural products, sugar and tropical products, and grain and feed products. A strong dollar, while a headwind to the export forecast, is partially responsible for the higher import demand.

The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the November 9, 2022, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) release, and the U.S. production forecasts thereof.