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Retailing & Wholesaling - Retail Trends

The Economic Research Service (ERS) conducts research on food retail outlets—businesses that sell groceries and other food products for preparation and consumption at home (also referred to as food at home (FAH)). ERS examines the size of this market and its major market segments—including grocery stores, convenience stores, warehouse clubs and supercenters, and other retail food outlets.

An Essential Market

FAH outlets have long been the cornerstone of U.S. food spending, though their share of total food spending has gradually declined as foodservice spending (also referred as to food away from home (FAFH)) expanded. Because nominal food sales reflect both changes in prices and the amount of food purchased, the following chart presents inflation-adjusted estimates expressed in constant dollars, with 2025 as the base year. These estimates provide a clearer picture of changes in food sales, after accounting for food price inflation. 

  • In inflation-adjusted terms, total food sales at FAH and FAFH outlets increased to $2.51 trillion in 2025 from $1.56 trillion in 1997, a 61.4-percent increase. 
  • Food sales at FAH outlets grew slower than at FAFH outlets, increasing to $1.1 trillion in 2025 from $738 billion in 1997, a 48.6-percent increase.
  • Among food retailing outlets, food sales at grocery stores increased 15.7 percent, from an inflation-adjusted $533 billion in 1997 to $617 billion in 2025. Food sales at warehouse clubs and supercenters quadrupled, increasing from $69 billion in 1997 to $289 billion in 2025 — a 317.1-percent increase.

A line graph showing annual inflation-adjusted food-at-home, food-away-from-home, and total food expenditures in the United States from 1997 to 2025.

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The composition of food spending has also changed over time. Although expenditures on FAH increased, FAH accounted for a smaller share of total food expenditures, as spending away from home grew more quickly. The following chart shows the share of total food expenditures allocated to FAH and FAFH over time. Shares are calculated using nominal expenditures and are not adjusted for inflation.  

  • In 2025, 43.7 percent of total food expenditures were spent on FAH and 56.3 percent on FAFH.
  • FAFH expenditures surpassed FAH expenditures in 2004 and have represented the larger share of total food expenditures every year since then.
  • The FAH share of total expenditures increased temporarily in 2020 because of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic but subsequently resumed its previous trend, as FAFH spending rebounded.
     

A line graph showing shares of total food expenditures in the United States from 1997 to 2025.

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Food-at-Home Industry by Outlet Type

Grocery stores remain the largest FAH outlet category in 2025. However, their share of FAH expenditures declined between 1997 and 2025, as consumers shifted an increasing share of their food purchases to warehouse clubs and supercenters.

  • Grocery stores accounted for the majority of FAH sales in 2025, at 56.2 percent, but their share of FAH spending has declined over the period shown, down from 72.2 percent in 1997.
  • Food spending from warehouse clubs and supercenters increased more than any other FAH outlet, rising from 9.4 percent in 1997 to 26.4 percent in 2025.
  • Food spending at other FAH outlets remained relatively stable over the period shown, making up the remaining 17.4 percent in 2025, compared with 18.4 percent and 1997. This category includes: 
    • Convenience stores, which contributed 1.2 percent of FAH sales in 2025.
    • Other non-food retailers, such as drugstores and dollar stores, which accounted for 11.1 percent of FAH sales in 2025.

A line graph showing share of food-at-home market in the United States, by outlet type, from 1997 to 2025.

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Seasonal Patterns in Food-at-Home Spending

Average daily inflation-adjusted food-at-home (FAH) sales show recurring seasonal patterns across outlets. From 2021 to 2025, sales at FAH outlets increased toward the end of the calendar year, particularly in November and December, before often falling noticeably in January. This pattern was especially pronounced for warehouse clubs and supercenters, and other FAH, while grocery stores showed smaller but still similar year-end increases. 

  • In 2025, average daily inflation-adjusted food sales at grocery stores were the lowest in March ($1,641 million) and the highest in November and December ($1,735 million).
  • Average daily inflation-adjusted food sales at warehouse clubs and supercenters were the lowest in January ($721 million) and peaked in December ($916 million) in 2025.
  • In 2025, average daily inflation-adjusted food sales at all other FAH outlets were the lowest in August ($478 million) and the highest in December ($608 million).

A line graph showing average daily inflation-adjusted food-at-home spending in the United States by month and outlet type, from 2021 to 2025.

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Food At Home at the U.S. State Level

In nominal dollars, 2025 per capita food-at-home (FAH) purchases reached a record high of $3,197. In inflation-adjusted dollars, however, per capita purchases remained below their 2021 peak. The map below shows that FAH spending varied geographically across States, although most States were within 10 percent of the U.S. average. Overall, the pattern points to relatively modest geographic differences in per capita FAH spending, with only a limited number of States standing out as notably above or below the national average. Compared to per capita FAH sales across all States in 2025:

  • Connecticut had the median per capita FAH sales at $3,121;
  • Washington ($4,612), New Hampshire ($4,227), and Hawaii ($3,964) had the highest per capita FAH sales.;
  • Oklahoma had the lowest per capita FAH sales at $1,815, followed by West Virginia ($2,341), Washington, DC ($2,421), Mississippi ($2,471), and Michigan ($2,786).

U.S. map showing per capita food-at-home sales by State in 2025.

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Information used on this topic page is drawn from the Economic Research Service’s Food Expenditure Series data product. Interactive Charts: Food Expenditures provides interactive data visualizations for users.

U.S. Market Concentration for Food Retailers

Total U.S. food sales reached $796 billion in 2022 at supermarkets, other grocery stores, warehouse clubs, and supercenters (a subset of outlets in FAH). The 20 largest food retailers accounted for $519 billion, representing 65.2 percent of total food sales. This share remained above levels observed in the late 1990s, continuing the long-term trend toward greater market concentration.

Between 1997 and 2022, the market share of the top 4, top 8, and top 20 rated food retailers increased. This trend indicated that food retail sales became increasingly concentrated among the largest retailers, although the trend included periods of slower growth and modest declines. During the 2008–2009 Great Recession, the market shares of the largest food retailers declined modestly, before resuming their long-run upward trend as the economy recovered. This long-term trend reflects the growing role in the U.S. food retail market of large supermarket chains, warehouse clubs, and supercenters.

Combination chart with bars showing total U.S. food sales from 1997 to 2022 and lines showing the percentage of food sales accounted for by the top 4, top 8, and top 20 food retailers.

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Although U.S. food retail sales have become increasingly concentrated among the largest retailers nationwide, market concentration varies considerably across States. The map below compares each State’s market concentration, using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a standard measure of market concentration. Higher HHI values indicate that food sales are concentrated among fewer retailers, while lower values indicate a more competitive market with sales spread across more retailers. Similar to the previous chart, this analysis includes supermarkets, other grocery stores, warehouse clubs, and supercenters because these outlet types are close substitutes for consumers purchasing food for home. Together these outlets accounted for 83.4 percent of the food sales in 2022.

To facilitate comparisons, each State’s HHI is expressed relative to the median State HHI, which is normalized to 1.0. In 2022, Arizona had the median HHI value. States with values above 1.0 have higher market concentration than the median State, while those below 1.0 have lower concentration. In 2022, New York, California, and Hawaii had among the lowest levels of market concentration, indicating a more competitive food retail market. Arkansas, Iowa, and Florida had among the highest, indicating less market competition.

U.S. map showing relative food retail market concentration by State in 2022. States are grouped into above, near, or below the median Herfindahl-Hirschman Index.

Download chart image | Chart data

Additional ERS resources on food retail market concentration include:

A Disaggregated View of Market Concentration in the Food Retail Industry

Concentration and Competition in U.S. Agribusiness