See the latest Wheat Outlook report.
Global Trade Forecast at 3-Year Low
Global wheat exports in 2024/25 (July–June trade year basis) are forecast at 207.3 million metric tons
(MMT), down 16.8 MMT from the previous year and the lowest level in 3 years. Global trade tends to rise over time with growing consumption in parts of the world that are not self-sufficient in domestic wheat production. In the last two decades, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East collectively accounted for about 70 percent of the growth in global wheat imports. Over that period, most major exporters have expanded their shipments, most notably Russia and the European Union (EU), while U.S. exports have declined. In 2024/25, global trade is forecast to have the largest year-to-year reduction in since 1985/86. China, Turkey, and Pakistan are all importing less with sufficient domestic supplies. The world’s top wheat exporters, Russia and the EU, both have smaller crops this year and are consequently exporting smaller volumes. Ukraine’s exports also are forecast down with smaller beginning stocks. Partly offsetting those declines, Argentina, the United States, Australia, and Kazakhstan are all forecast to have higher exports with larger crops.