See the latest Wheat Outlook report.
U.S. Forecast as Fifth-Largest Wheat Exporter
The United States was historically the world’s leading wheat exporter by volume but has lost this position in recent years. It is forecast to be the fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2026/27. Russia is forecast as the world’s leading wheat exporter, but its exports are down substantially year to year because of war-related logistical constraints affecting Black Sea transit. Global trade in 2026/27 is forecast down 6 percent from the previous year’s record, with complications in Black Sea transit contributing to higher prices and larger crops for key importers in North Africa and the Middle East reducing their import needs. The EU is forecast as the world’s second-leading exporter, partly backfilling for reduced shipments from the Black Sea. Canada is forecast to have another bumper crop and record exports. Australia is forecast to have a large crop as well, with exports up year to year. On the other hand, U.S. exports are forecast at a 3-year low, with domestic supplies limited by drought and the smallest area planted on record (dating back to 1919).