See the latest Wheat Outlook report.
Argentina’s Wheat Crop Forecast at All-Time High
Global wheat production is forecast at a record in 2025/26, with several key producers having record or near-record production. Argentina, in particular, is forecast to have its largest crop ever at 27.8 million metric tons (MMT), well exceeding its previous record of 22.2 MMT from 4 years earlier. Argentina’s area harvested at 6.5 million hectares is relatively large, but record yield is the main factor for this year’s bumper production. Argentina is a direct U.S. competitor, so its abundant exportable supplies are expected to be a headwind for U.S. shipments, particularly during its normal peak export months of December through March. Argentina is likely to dominate shipments to Brazil and other South American markets and is also expanding shipments to other markets in Southeast and South Asia, as well as North Africa. Elevated yields in this year’s crop have resulted in lower protein levels, with some of the shipments likely to be used for feeding rather than for milling purposes.