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U.S. 2024/25 Sugar Supply Lowered Mainly on Reduced Mexico Imports

In the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply is raised from last month by 239,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.941 million on larger high-tier sugar imports and domestic production from the 2024 early season crop. Total use is increased by 4,000 STRV to 12.663 million as the increase in re-export product deliveries more than offset the decrease in exports. With the increase in supply compensating for the increase in use, ending stocks are raised 235,000 STRV to 2.278 million STRV, which corresponds to a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.0 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from last month and edges 2012/13 to be the highest in 20 years.

The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is lowered by 208,000 STRV to 14.282 million because the larger-than-expected beginning stocks and domestic production reduced the imports needed from Mexico to 395,000 STRV, the lowest in 18 years. With sugar use unchanged at 12.505 million STRV, ending stocks are residually calculated at 1.777 million. This corresponds to a stocks-touse ratio of 14.2 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than last month but higher than the expected 13.5 percent. This is because the September Export Limit (306,175 STRV x 0.7 = 214,323 STRV) is lower than the July Export Limit established by the U.S. Department of Commerce (789,925 x 0.5 = 394,963 STRV) and thus the latter volume is reflected in the WASDE.