Market Outlook
See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.
Lower U.S. Supply Projected in 2023/24
In the May 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), U.S. sugar supply in 2023/24 is projected at 14.259 million short tons, raw value (STRV), 2 percent lower than 2022/23, on lower beginning stocks, production, and imports. Production is forecast to decline by 1 percent from 2022/23 as the lower beet sugar production offsets the increase in cane sugar production. The initial forecast for total imports is down 4 percent partly because the quantities for the World Trade Organization (WTO) raw and refined tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) and free trade agreements (FTAs) are set at the minimum commitment levels, and high-tier tariff imports are at 120,000 STRV. The additional Specialty Sugar TRQ has yet to be announced, and thus excluded. Sugar for total and food use in 2023/24 is set at 12.815 million STRV and 12.675 million respectively, both unchanged from 2022/23. The 2023/24 ending stocks are 1.444 million STRV and the stocks-to-use ratio is 11.3 percent.
Mexico’s sugar production in 2022/23 is reduced by 175,000 metric tons (MT) from last month to 5.385 million based on production data through week 31. Given this month’s changes to Mexico’s supply and use balance sheet, USDA lowered the 2022/23 Mexican exports to the U.S. by 56,000 MT to 1.062 million, which is below the March U.S. Needs of 1.118 million (equivalent to 1.306 million short tons, raw value). Week 32 data, which was released just hours before the WASDE and thus not incorporated, implies an even lower production estimate of 5.316 million MT. As such, it is increasingly unlikely that the export quotas for raw and refined sugar will be met. Imports for the Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación (IMMEX) are unchanged pending availability of publicly available official data.
