See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.
U.S. 2026/27 Sugar Supply Is Forecast Lower; Mexico’s 2026/27 Sugar Output Is Mostly Flat
The U.S. fiscal year 2026/27 sugar supply is forecast at 14.062 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down about 300,000 STRV from 2025/26 on lower beginning stocks and domestic sugar production more than offsetting larger imports. Imports include projections for organic sugar (269,000 STRV) and refined sugar (197,000 STRV) paying the high-tier duty, which are about the same as the 2025/26 levels. Imports from Mexico are calculated at 1.046 million STRV based on the U.S. Needs formula from the sugar suspension agreements to achieve a 13.5 percent stocks-to-use ratio. Sugar use is unchanged from 2025/26 at 12.389 million STRV. The resulting ending stocks are 1.673 million STRV, down about 300,000 STRV.
Mexico’s 2026/27 sugar production is forecast at 5.142 million metric tons (MT), slightly below 2025/26, based on USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service’s Mexico City Post.