Market Outlook

See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.

U.S. 2023/24 and 2024/25 Sugar Production Lowered; Mexico 2023/24 Production Raised

In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), U.S. sugar production is reduced from last month in 2023/24 and 2024/25 due to lower production of beet sugar and Florida cane sugar, respectively. In 2023/24, imports from Mexico are trimmed 31,000 STRV on the diminished outlook for low polarity sugar produced exclusively for the U.S. market. This reduction was more than offset by a 47,000-STRV increase in the “High-tier tariff/other” category to account for imports of the raw sugar equivalent of cane molasses as an input to produce refined cane sugar. In 2024/25, the forecast for this import category is similarly increased by 47,000 STRV with the assumption that the average monthly import pace continues. Total use is unchanged for both years. Given that the USDA additional specialty sugar import announcement was published after the WASDE and thus, was excluded in the balance sheet, the corresponding 2024/25 stocks-to-use ratio is 11.5 percent.

Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar production is raised from last month by 69,000 metric tons, actual weight, to 4.718 million—still a 25-year low—on the expectation that area harvested could reach 740,000 hectares. Imports for consumption in 2023/24 are increased based on pace, thereby contributing to carryover stocks into 2024/25 given that the expected 2024/25 production remains low by historical standards. In both years, Mexico’s exports to other countries besides the United States are projected at zero.