See the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.
U.S. 2025/26 Sugar Supply Is Lowered; Use Is Unchanged
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.141 million short tons, raw value (STRV). This number is down 184,000 STRV from last month, as the 220,000-STRV decrease in imports from Mexico more than offsets the increase in domestic production to a record-high 9.470 million STRV. Given that the 2025/26 sugar use is unchanged at 12.165 million STRV, ending stocks are reduced by the same magnitude as that of the supply. The corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is 16.2 percent, down from last month’s 17.8 percent, but higher than the expected 13.5 percent per the U.S.-Mexico sugar suspension agreements. The U.S. Needs calculated from the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is below zero, thus the Export Limit in July established by the U.S. Department of Commerce (439,275 x 0.5 = 219,638 STRV) reflects the projected licensed imports from Mexico.
The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is slightly lowered by 3,000 STRV to 14.716 million, on a decrease in beet sugar production more than offsetting the increases in high-tier tariff sugar imports and re-export sugar imports. With sugar use unchanged at 12.280 million STRV, ending stocks are residually calculated at 2.436 million, which corresponds to a stocks-to-use ratio of 19.8 percent, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from last month.
Mexico’s 2024/25 balance is mostly unchanged, except for a 38,000-metric tons (MT) upward revision to exports outside of the sugar suspension agreements, which are mostly to countries besides the United States. Ending stocks for 2024/25 (and thus, 2025/26 beginning stocks) are residually lowered by the same amount to maintain a reasonable inventory level. The main change to Mexico’s 2025/26 balance is the reduction of exports to the United States, per the suspension agreements.