See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks for MY 2025/26 Increase on Lower Exports
This month, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published the Crop Production—2025 Summary report, which increased the 2025 U.S. soybean production estimate by 9 million bushels to 4.26 billion bushels on higher harvested acreage. Harvested acreage increased by 0.1 million acres to 80.4 million acres. The national average soybean yield is unchanged at a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre. The U.S. soybean crush forecast for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is raised this month by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels. The U.S. soybean export forecast is reduced this month on higher soybean supply in Brazil. Consequently, U.S. soybean ending stocks for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 are forecast at 350 million bushels, 60 million bushels higher than last month’s forecast. The season-average soybean price forecast is down 30 cents this month to $10.20 per bushel due to higher U.S. soybean ending stocks and record-high global stocks.
Brazil’s soybean production forecast for MY 2025/26 is increased by 3.0 million metric tons this month to a record high of 178.0 million metric tons on higher harvested acreage and yield. Brazil’s soybean exports are forecast to reach 114.0 million metric tons, 1.5 million metric tons higher than last month’s forecast and 10.9 million metric tons higher than MY 2024/25. The global soybean export forecast for MY 2025/26 remains almost unchanged at 187.6 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at a record high of 124.4 million metric tons.