Market Outlook

See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.

U.S. Soybean Oil Exports Increase on Strong
Export Commitments

U.S. soybean crush and soybean oil production reached a record high in October 2024. U.S. soybean oil became the most competitive vegetable oil in the global market with tightening supply of global palm oil. As of November 28, 2024, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated in the weekly U.S. Export Sales report that soybean oil total commitments are at 416,300 metric tons compared with 28,100 metric tons during the same period last year. With larger supplies and competitive prices, the U.S. soybean oil export forecast for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is raised this month by 500.0 million pounds to 1.1 billion pounds. The higher exports forecast is partially offset by lower domestic demand. Soybean oil ending stocks for MY 2024/25 are lowered slightly this month to 1.5 billion pounds.

The global vegetable oils supply forecast for MY 2024/25 is reduced this month due to lower palm oil supply partially offset by higher soybean and sunflowerseed oil supply. With reduced global supply and unchanged vegetable oil consumption, global vegetable oil ending stocks are forecast to decline.