Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2008

Overview

Japan is a large market for U.S. orange exports, and most of Japan's orange consumption is supplied by U.S. exports. Orange consumption and imports grew until 1994, but have declined since. Demographic shifts are linked to changing orange consumption: older birth cohorts eat more oranges, and younger ones eat fewer oranges; within each cohort, consumption increases with age. Income changes appear not to be major factors in the decline in orange consumption, but price changes appear to be potentially important. A downward trend in consumption, not explained by the demographic variables, prices, or income, may continue in the future.