COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

by Adam Gerval and James Hansen

This working paper illuminates the impact that volatility in international commodity prices has on U.S. agricultural product export volumes to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The current Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has created such a period of intense price volatility, offering a unique opportunity for modeling potential effects of a global shock on trade with these nations. By simulating the effects of declining oil prices in 2020 and subsequent years through a shock to gross domestic product (GDP) in oil-dependent nations—i.e., Angola and Nigeria—we can evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural trade for key U.S. export commodities to SSA.

Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, single-commodity dependence, sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria, Angola, poultry, wheat, agricultural trade, U.S. agricultural exports, rice

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