Summary Findings
Food Price Outlook, 2024 and 2025
This page summarizes the October 2024 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the September 2024 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.2 percent from August 2024 to September 2024 and was up 2.4 percent from September 2023. The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from August 2024 to September 2024, and food prices were 2.3 percent higher than in September 2023.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent from August 2024 to September 2024 and was 1.3 percent higher than September 2023; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent in September 2024 and was 3.9 percent higher than September 2023.
U.S. food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.1 to 2.6 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.9 to 1.6 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.9 to 4.3 percent. In 2025, food prices are expected to increase more slowly than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.4 percent, with a prediction interval of -1.7 to 6.7 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.6 percent, with a prediction interval of -4.6 to 8.0 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 5.6 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the workbooks) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged: while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent, as prices began accelerating in the second-half of the year. No food categories tracked by USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) decreased in price in 2021 compared with their prices in 2020.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the war in Ukraine, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures, such as high energy costs. All food price categories increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent. Food price growth slowed in 2023, as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent. While prices increased for all food categories except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
From August to September 2024, prices increased for eight food-at-home categories, declined for five categories, and remained steady for two categories. Prices were also lower in September 2024 than September 2023 for two food-at-home categories: fish and seafood and the “other foods” category.
In 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average. Prices are predicted to increase for 13 food-at-home categories and decrease for 2 food-at-home categories in 2024. Prices for some inputs have fallen over the year, including energy (by 6.8 percent), and prices for unprocessed agricultural commodities were essentially unchanged (increased by 0.1 percent). Also, the Federal Reserve reduced the Federal funds (interest) rate in September 2024, the first change since July 2023. Prices for goods (excluding food and energy) have slowed across the economy, while prices for services have continued to increase at higher-than-average rates. The effects of these conditions will be monitored as the conditions unfold to assess their impacts on food prices.
Beef and veal prices increased by 0.3 percent in September 2024 and have increased for 7 straight months. Prices for beef and veal were 4.2 percent higher than in September 2023, due to tight supplies and continued demand, and are predicted to increase faster than most other categories in 2024. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 5.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 4.2 to 6.9 percent.
Prices for pork rose by 1.0 percent in September 2024 after remaining unchanged in August. Prices were 1.5 percent higher in September 2024 than September 2023. Prices for pork are expected to increase 1.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.7 to 2.8 percent.
Prices for fish and seafood fell by 0.1 percent in September 2024. Prices were 1.3 percent lower in September 2024 than September 2023, and fish and seafood are expected to experience the largest price declines across categories in 2024, partially due to weaker demand. Prices for fish and seafood are predicted to decrease 1.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.2 to -1.1 percent.
Retail egg prices rose by 10.0 percent in September 2024, following a 4.8 percent increase in August. An outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022 contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock. HPAI continued to drive egg price increases in 2024, with recent detections in October 2024. Egg prices in September 2024 were 39.6 percent higher than those in September 2023 but still below peak prices in January 2023. Price impacts of the HPAI outbreak will be monitored closely. Egg prices are predicted to increase 8.8 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 5.4 to 12.8 percent.
Prices for fats and oils rose by 1.4 percent in September 2024, bouncing back from a decrease of 1.0 percent in August. Prices were 4.1 percent higher in September 2024 than September 2023, led by a 7.8 percent increase in butter prices. Prices for fats and oils are predicted to increase by 2.9 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 2.2 to 3.7 percent.
Prices for fresh fruits rose by 2.8 percent in September 2024. Despite the large increase in September, prices for fresh fruits were only 1.6 percent higher in September 2024 than September 2023, and prices are expected to experience little change on average in 2024. Fresh fruit prices are predicted to increase by 0.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -0.8 to 1.0 percent.
Prices for cereals and bakery products increased by 0.1 percent in September 2024 and were 0.1 percent higher than September 2023, as farm and wholesale wheat prices continue to fall from their peaks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prices for cereals and bakery products are predicted to increase 0.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.1 to 0.9 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods. The farm- and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2024, prices are predicted to increase for seven PPI categories and decrease for six categories. Greater volatility in farm- and wholesale-level prices lead to wider prediction intervals for these products compared to retail-level products.
Prices for wholesale poultry rose by 9.1 percent in September 2024, and prices were 6.3 percent higher in September 2024 than September 2023. Wholesale poultry prices are predicted to rise 3.3 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 1.3 to 5.3 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 7.3 percent in September 2024, and egg prices continued to experience large monthly changes, after prices rose by 44.8 percent in August. The ongoing HPAI outbreak continues to affect egg-layer flocks, with volatile effects on prices. In September 2024, prices for farm-level eggs were 124.3 percent higher than September 2023, when prices had fallen during a lull in the outbreak through much of 2023. The effects of recent HPAI cases on farm-level egg prices will be closely monitored. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 39.2 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 22.2 to 68.0 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Farm-level fruit prices rose by 8.3 percent in September 2024. Prices were 4.6 percent higher in September 2024 than September 2023. Although prices increased in September, prices are expected to fall on average in 2024 due in part to lower input costs and higher production. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to decrease by 4.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -7.3 to -1.6 percent.
Prices for farm-level wheat rose by 4.5 percent in September 2024, after declining most other months in 2024. Prices for wholesale wheat flour also increased in September, rising by 1.2 percent. After peaking in 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prices for both farm-level wheat and wholesale wheat flour fell steadily throughout 2023 and most of 2024. In September 2024, farm-level wheat and wholesale wheat flour prices were 19.7 percent and 4.9 percent lower, respectively, than September 2023. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 22.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -25.3 to -19.0 percent. Wholesale wheat flour prices are predicted to decrease 6.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -8.2 to -5.0 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.