Summary Findings

Food Price Outlook, 2024 and 2025

This page summarizes the December 2024 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporates the November 2024 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.

See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.

Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)

The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, decreased 0.1 percent from October 2024 to November 2024 and was up 2.7 percent from November 2023. The CPI for all food increased 0.1 percent from October 2024 to November 2024, and food prices were 2.4 percent higher than in November 2023.

The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:

The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI decreased 0.1 percent from October 2024 to November 2024 and was 1.6 percent higher than November 2023; and
The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent in November 2024 and was 3.6 percent higher than November 2023.

U.S. food prices are expected to continue decelerating in 2024 compared with recent years. In 2024, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.2 to 2.3 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.1 to 1.3 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 4.0 to 4.2 percent. In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise at a slower pace than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 1.9 percent, with a prediction interval of -1.2 to 5.2 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 0.8 percent, with a prediction interval of -3.7 to 5.8 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.5 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.8 to 5.3 percent.

The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.

Recent Historical Overview

Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged, while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.

In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent, as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year. No food categories tracked by USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) decreased in price in 2021 compared with their prices in 2020.

In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, whereas food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the war in Ukraine, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures, such as high energy costs. All food price categories increased by more than 5.0 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.

In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent. Food price growth slowed in 2023, as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent. While prices increased for all food categories except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories.

CPI Forecast Changes This Month

Overall, prices for food-at-home fell by 0.1 percent in November 2024 compared with October 2024. Food-at-home prices typically experience a small decline on average in November due to seasonal pricing factors around the Thanksgiving holiday. From October to November 2024, prices increased for eight food-at-home categories and declined for seven categories. Year-over-year, prices were lower in November 2024 than November 2023 for three food-at-home categories: fish and seafood, cereals and bakery products, and the “other meats” category.

In 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average. Prices are predicted to increase for 13 food-at-home categories and decrease for 2 food-at-home categories (i.e., fish and seafood and dairy products). Prices for some inputs have fallen over the year, including energy, although prices for unprocessed agricultural commodities have increased. The effects of these conditions will be monitored to assess their impacts on food prices.

Beef and veal prices increased by 1.7 percent in November after decreasing by 1.2 percent in October, resuming a trend of price increases throughout most months in 2024. Prices for beef and veal were 5.0 percent higher than in November 2023 and are predicted to increase faster than most other categories in 2024 due to higher input costs and tight supplies. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 5.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 5.2 to 5.8 percent.

Prices for fish and seafood increased by 0.3 percent in November 2024. Prices were 1.7 percent lower in November 2024 than November 2023, and fish and seafood are expected to experience the largest price declines across categories in 2024, partially due to weaker demand. Prices for fish and seafood are predicted to decrease 1.9 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.1 to -1.7 percent.

Retail egg prices increased by 7.8 percent in November and continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes. An outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022 contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock. HPAI continued to drive egg price increases in 2024, with recent detections in December 2024. Egg prices in November 2024 were 37.5 percent higher than those in November 2023 but still below peak prices in January 2023. Price impacts of the HPAI outbreak will be monitored closely. Egg prices are predicted to increase 7.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 6.8 to 8.7 percent.

Prices for dairy products decreased by 0.3 percent in November 2024 but were 1.2 percent higher than November 2023. Dairy product prices gradually declined throughout 2023 into early 2024 but rose in the latter half of 2024, driven by higher farm and wholesale prices, due in part to lower milk production. On average, dairy product prices are predicted to experience a small decline in 2024, largely due to lower prices earlier in the year. Dairy product prices are predicted to decrease 0.3 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -0.4 to -0.1 percent.

Prices dropped in November 2024 for fats and oils (by 1.8 percent) and processed fruits and vegetables (by 2.4 percent). These categories typically experience seasonal price declines in November when retailers offer discounts for Thanksgiving. Prices for fats and oils are predicted to increase by 2.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 2.3 to 2.7 percent. Prices for processed fruits and vegetables are predicted to increase by 0.9 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.7 to 1.1 percent.

Prices for cereals and bakery products fell by 1.3 percent in November 2024, reversing a 0.8 percent increase in October. Prices were 0.5 percent lower than November 2023, as farm and wholesale wheat prices remain well below their peaks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prices for cereals and bakery products are predicted to increase 0.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 0.4 to 0.6 percent.

Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)

A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.

The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.

USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.

PPI Forecast Changes This Month

In 2024, prices are predicted to increase for eight PPI categories and decrease for five categories. Greater volatility in farm-level and wholesale-level prices lead to wider prediction intervals for these products compared with retail-level products.

Wholesale poultry prices increased by 4.4 percent in November 2024 after decreasing by 6.7 percent in October, and prices were 9.5 percent higher in November 2024 than November 2023. Wholesale poultry prices are predicted to increase 0.2 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -0.3 to 0.7 percent.

Prices for farm-level eggs rose by 54.6 percent in November 2024, after falling by 20.6 percent in October 2024. Farm-level egg prices continued to experience large monthly changes as the ongoing HPAI outbreak continues to affect egg-layer flocks, with volatile effects on prices. In November 2024, prices for farm-level eggs were 94.4 percent higher than November 2023, when prices had fallen during a lull in the outbreak through much of 2023. The effects of recent HPAI cases on farm-level egg prices will be closely monitored. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 40.8 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 34.7 to 50.6 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.

Prices for farm-level milk fell by 2.8 percent in November 2024. However, farm-level milk prices have risen throughout most months in 2024, partially due to reduced dairy cattle herds, and prices were 12.9 percent higher than November 2023. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to increase by 11.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 10.2 to 12.1 percent.

Farm-level fruits and vegetables had large price increases in November 2024. Farm-level fruit prices rose by 21.8 percent in November and were 11.0 percent higher than November 2023. Prices for farm-level vegetables increased by 33.2 percent in November and prices were 34.3 percent higher than last year. Although prices for these categories were higher year-over-year compared with November 2023, prices are expected to fall or grow slowly on average in 2024, due in part to lower input costs and higher production for some products. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to decrease by 1.9 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -3.1 to -0.7 percent. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to increase by 0.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -1.7 to 3.4 percent.

For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.

See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.