Food Price Outlook, 2025
This page summarizes the April 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the March 2025 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.2 percent from February 2025 to March 2025 and was up 2.4 percent from March 2024. The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from February 2025 to March 2025, and food prices were 3.0 percent higher than in March 2024.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.5 percent from February 2025 to March 2025 and was 2.4 percent higher than March 2024; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent in March 2025 and was 3.8 percent higher than March 2024.
USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) April 2025 Forecast
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise slightly faster than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.5 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.9 to 5.1 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 3.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.9 to 5.7 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.8 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.8 to 4.7 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the Russia-Ukraine war, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food price growth continued to slow in 2024, rising by 2.3 percent, as those factors combined with cooling labor pressures, lower energy prices, and changes in consumer demand. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024, lower than their historical average pace of growth, and food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent, slightly outpacing their historical average.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
The predicted increase in food-at-home prices in 2025 (3.2 percent) is above the 20-year historical average price change (2.6 percent). Factors that contribute to inflation across the economy--including interest rates, energy prices, labor market tightness, and consumer demand--also influence food prices. Additional factors that affect food prices specifically can include seasonal trends, trade, plant and animal disease, and growing conditions such as weather effects on crops or animal feed.
Overall, prices for food-at-home rose by 0.5 percent between February 2025 and March 2025. From February to March, prices increased for 10 food-at-home categories, declined for 4 categories, and remained unchanged for 1 category. Many food-at-home categories experienced large price swings in March, with six categories increasing by at least 1.0 percent, and three categories decreasing by over 1.0 percent. In 2025, prices are predicted to grow at above-average rates for eggs, beef and veal, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages, while prices are predicted to decline for fresh vegetables and other meats. Prices for 9 other food-at-home categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Beef and veal prices increased by 1.6 percent in March 2025 following an increase of 2.0 percent in February, and were 8.6 percent higher than in March 2024. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase in 2025 due to tight supplies and continued consumer demand. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 6.3 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 0.2 to 13.0 percent. Pork prices rebounded in March 2025, increasing by 2.2 percent after falling by 1.6 percent in February. Pork prices were 2.9 percent higher than in March 2024. In contrast to beef, pork production is projected to increase in 2025. Pork prices are predicted to increase 1.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -3.2 to 7.4 percent.
Poultry prices rose 1.1 percent in March 2025 after declining in 5 of the prior 6 months. Prices for poultry were 0.9 percent higher than March 2024 and are predicted to increase in 2025 due to strong demand amid higher prices for other animal protein products. Poultry prices are predicted to increase 1.0 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -2.5 to 4.7 percent.
Retail egg prices increased by 1.2 percent in March 2025, a slower pace than increases of 12.5 percent and 13.8 percent in February and January, respectively. Egg prices in March 2025 were 60.4 percent higher than in March 2024. Retail egg prices continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. About 30 million commercial egg layers were affected by HPAI in January and February 2025, though HPAI detections in egg layers eased significantly in March. Wholesale egg prices also declined sharply in March 2025, based on Daily New York Shell Egg prices tracked by the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, but changes in retail prices lag changes in wholesale prices. Egg prices are predicted to increase 54.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 32.6 to 82.7 percent. The Food Price Outlook forecasts the annual average change in prices across all months in 2025 compared to all months in 2024. It does not forecast the 12-month change from the forecast month. If prices decrease in the coming months, a portion of the estimated 2025 change is already captured in the price increases realized from January through March 2025.
Prices for fresh vegetables continued to decrease from the previous month, declining by 1.1 percent in March 2025, after falling by 1.7 percent in February. Fresh vegetable prices were 3.0 percent lower than March 2024, led by an 8.2-percent decline in the price for tomatoes, and prices were lower across product types. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to decrease by 2.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -7.0 to 2.1 percent.
Prices for sugar and sweets fell by 0.1 percent in March 2025 due to seasonal factors but were 3.6 percent higher than March 2024. Rising prices for candy and chewing gum are driving increases in the sugar and sweets category, partially due to elevated prices for cocoa and chocolate. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 4.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 2.1 to 7.2 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages rose by 0.6 percent in March 2025 and were 2.4 percent higher than March 2024. In 2025, prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase at higher-than-average rates due to the higher global price of coffee, as well as for juices from lower domestic citrus production due to citrus greening and hurricane damage. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 4.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.8 to 6.7 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
Prices for unprocessed agricultural products, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods trended up through much of 2024 into early 2025, though prices eased for both unprocessed and finished foods in March 2025. However, price changes vary across product categories. In 2025, prices are predicted to increase for six PPI categories and decrease for seven categories. Greater volatility in farm-level and wholesale-level prices leads to wider prediction intervals for these products compared with retail-level products.
Farm-level cattle prices increased by 0.4 percent in March 2025. Prices for farm-level cattle were 10.0 percent higher in March 2025 than March 2024, as a result of tight cattle supplies from a cyclical contraction of the cattle herd. Wholesale beef prices have shown more moderate growth and were 1.6 percent higher in March 2025 than March 2024, with a decline of 4.9 percent in March 2025. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase 9.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -0.9 to 22.4 percent. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase 2.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -9.9 to 17.6 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 27.6 percent in March 2025, following 4 straight months of increases, including an increase of 53.6 percent in February 2025. In March 2025, prices for farm-level eggs were 167.0 percent higher than March 2024. The PPI for farm-level eggs captures the prices paid to producers for their products; these products are bought and sold earlier in the food supply chain and are more volatile than prices paid by consumers in retail stores. Farm-level egg prices continued to experience large monthly changes as the ongoing HPAI outbreak continued to affect egg-layer flocks. However, confirmed detections of HPAI in egg layers eased significantly in March after peaking in January. Daily New York Shell Egg prices tracked by the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service also declined sharply in March 2025, which suggests moderation in future PPI farm-level egg prices if HPAI cases remain low. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 132.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 44.7 to 337.9 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Prices for farm-level milk fell by 16.4 percent in March 2025, but prices were 1.5 percent higher than March 2024. In 2025, prices are predicted to decrease due to increases in the dairy herd and higher production. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to decrease by 12.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -27.7 to 8.1 percent.
In March 2025, prices for farm-level fruits fell by 12.2 percent but were 10.8 percent higher than March 2024. Prices for farm-level vegetables decreased 7.7 percent and were 33.0 percent below March 2024. Farm-level fruit and vegetable prices can undergo large month-to-month swings based on weather, production, and seasonality. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to increase by 3.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -5.5 to 13.6 percent. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to decrease by 10.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -26.1 to 9.1 percent.
Farm-level wheat prices fell 4.3 percent in March 2025 and were 7.2 percent lower than March 2024. After prices peaked in the first half of 2022 following the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, farm-level wheat prices declined steadily before leveling off in the second half of 2024. After large price decreases in 2023 and 2024, changes in farm-level wheat price declines are predicted to moderate in 2025. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 5.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -20.4 to 15.2 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.