Documentation

This documentation provides information concerning data sources and the assembly of USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Dairy Data. The ERS Dairy Data page includes data files covering domestic supply, demand, and international trade of various dairy products.

Note: On May 13, 2022, two new dairy data files were provided on the Dairy Data web page:

  • Supply and utilization for dairy product categories (monthly and annual)
  • Supply and utilization of milk in all products (monthly and annual)

The two data files listed above replaced the three data files listed below for the period from 2011 to current. The three data files listed below will continue to be available, covering data periods ending in 2010:

  • Commercial disappearance for dairy product categories (1995–2010)
  • Commercial disappearance, milk in all products (1995–2010)
  • Milk: Supply and utilization of all dairy products (1970–2010)

The two new data files combine elements of the three older data files. There are two main reasons for the changes:

  • For data since 2011, it is not feasible to separate commercial uses and stocks from Government uses and stocks, and there are no longer Government-subsidized exports. The last year of activity for the Dairy Products Price Support Program (formerly the Milk Price Support Program) and the Dairy Export Incentive Program was 2010, and both programs were repealed by the Agricultural Act of 2014.
  • The annual tables in the commercial disappearance files are very similar to the tables in “Milk: Supply and utilization of all dairy products (1970–2010).” The latter data file includes some annual adjustments to derive estimates of apparent domestic human use. For data from 2011 to present, data from three data files are easily combined into two.

The two new data files have some new features:

  • Annual apparent domestic human use for milk in all products is calculated for skim solids and the skim-solids milk-equivalent basis in “Supply and utilization of milk in all products (monthly and annual).” In “Milk: Supply and utilization of all dairy products (1970–2010),” domestic milk use is calculated only on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis.
  • In “Supply and utilization for dairy product categories (monthly and annual),” annual apparent domestic human use is calculated for dry whey; whey protein concentrate; and lactose; in addition to butter; dry skim milk products; American type cheese; other-than-American type cheese; and evaporated and condensed whole milk. Whey products and lactose are not included in the product tables for “Milk: Supply and utilization of all dairy products (1970–2010).”
  • The new files are formatted in a way to help users better understand the calculations and the relationships between the monthly and annual tables.

Major primary data sources used by USDA, ERS

ERS economists use numerous primary sources to assemble and calculate data provided on the ERS Dairy Data web page. Major primary data sources include those listed below. Less-used sources are discussed in the information for each data file.

List of items documented on this web page

U.S. dairy situation at a glance

Basic dairy-related data are published monthly, providing statistics for the most recent 14 months and annual statistics for the past 2 years.

U.S. milk production and related data

The data file includes quarterly milk-production data, a proxy for dairy feed prices, and replacement cow prices.

Supply and utilization for dairy product categories

ERS provides supply and utilization tables for eight product categories: butter; dry skim milk products; American type cheese; other-than-American type cheese; dry whey; whey protein concentrate; lactose; and evaporated and condensed whole milk. For the first seven product categories, monthly and annual data are provided from 2011 to current. For evaporated and condensed whole milk, only annual data are provided for 2011 to current.

The following calculations are used for the monthly and annual tables:

total supply = beginning commercial stocks + production + imports

domestic disappearance = total commercial supply - exports - ending stocks

For the annual tables, annual adjustments are included to calculate apparent domestic human use. The data for these adjustments are readily available on an annual basis. For butter, American type cheese, and other-than-American type cheese, net U.S. shipments to U.S. territories are subtracted from domestic disappearance. For dry skim milk products, dry whey, whey protein concentrate, and lactose, net U.S. shipments to U.S. territories and animal feed use estimates are subtracted from domestic disappearance.

apparent domestic human use = domestic disappearance
     - net shipments to U.S. territories - animal feed use [if applicable]

Data sources, supply and utilization for product categories
Supply and utilization element Source
Stocks USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
Production USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Imports, exports,
and net shipments to U.S. territories
U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Domestic animal feed use American Dairy Products Institute

Import and export codes used

The primary source for dairy import and export data is the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and these data are reported by USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. The Census data are compiled using a commodity classification system developed by the World Customs Organization: the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System, or simply the Harmonized System (HS). The HS is an international standard for recording world trade at 2-digit, 4-digit, and 6-digit levels of detail. The United States adopted a 10-digit code system to include greater product detail and began using it for U.S. trade on January 1, 1989. Codes used for U.S. exports are provided in the Census in Foreign Trade Schedule B. Codes used for U.S. imports are provided in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTS), administered by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC). The Census data for dairy products are reported in kilograms of product weight or liters of product volume. Since ERS commercial disappearance data are reported in pounds, data for imports and exports must be converted to product weight in pounds.

For Excel workbooks displaying import HTS numbers used for each product category, see the HTS codes used for imports, product categories. Descriptions listed are those provided by the USITC Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb. While the USITC descriptions provided by the USITC Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb are useful, they are not as accurate or complete as those in the actual tariff schedule. In the Excel workbooks, DataWeb descriptions are provided instead of the actual HTS descriptions in the interest of brevity. 

For an Excel workbook displaying Schedule B export codes used for each product category, see HS codes used for exports, product categories. Export classification in Schedule B is not nearly as detailed as import classification in the HTS. Note that the distinction between American type and other-than-American type cheese is not precise. We have categorized HS codes according to what we believe are the predominant varieties of cheeses within each HS classification. For example, we make a simplifying assumption that all processed cheese exported is of an American type.

Net shipments to U.S. territories

Net shipments to U.S. territories include shipments from the United States to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands minus shipments from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to the United States. Data for net shipments to other U.S. territories are not available.

Animal feed use estimates

Animal feed use estimates are based on data published in the annual report series Dairy Products Utilization and Production Trends, by American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI). For dry skim milk products, domestic animal feed use includes products produced for animal use and products originally intended for human use but used for animal feed. For the whey products (dry whey, whey protein concentrate, and lactose), animal feed use estimates are included for the entire period. For data beginning in 2019, animal use of whey products originally intended for human consumption is explicitly reported by ADPI, in addition to animal use of products originally intended for animal feed use.

Supply and utilization of milk in all products

The following monthly and annual data are provided for the supply and utilization of milk in all dairy products:

  • Milk-equivalent milk-fat basis
  • Milk-equivalent skim-solids basis
  • Milk fat
  • Skim solids 

Calculations for these tables are very similar to the calculations of supply and utilization for dairy product categories. An exception is the deduction of farm use to estimate milk marketings.

milk marketings = milk production - farm use

total supply = beginning stocks + milk marketings + imports

domestic disappearance = total commercial supply - exports - ending stocks

For the annual tables, adjustments are made as follows:

apparent domestic human use = domestic disappearance
     + household farm use
     - (net shipments to U.S. territories
     + domestic use of dairy products as animal feed
     + other uses)

Farm use

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) publishes farm use data on an annual basis. To estimate monthly farm use of milk, ERS prorates the annual farm use number using the number of days in each month. For the current year, ERS estimates monthly farm use based on published data from recent years. Farm use includes both milk fed to calves and household farm use. While total farm use is subtracted from milk production to derive milk marketings, household farm use is added back in the annual tables as part of the calculation of apparent domestic human use.

Conversion factors

Milk is made up of water, milk fat, and skim solids (protein, lactose, ash, and trace elements). Milk equivalents are measured on both a milk-fat basis and a skim-solids basis. The milk-fat and skim-solids content of milk varies from year to year, month to month, and from one cow to another. In recent years, proportions of milk fat and skim solids in U.S. milk have been trending upward. In 2021, farm milk in the United States averaged 87.00 percent water, 8.99 percent skim solids, and 4.01 percent milk fat.

To account for the supply and use of milk in all products, it is necessary to either account for the milk solids (milk fat or skim solids) or the equivalent amount of milk (on a milk-fat or skim-solids basis) associated with stocks, imports, and exports of the products. Conversion factors associated with milk fat and skim solids are used for this accounting.

For stocks, the milk-fat and skim-solids percentages are estimated for each product reported by NASS. The same type of procedure is used for animal feed use estimates. For imports, exports, and net shipments to U.S. territories, milk-fat and skim-solids percentages are estimated for each HS code, based on information from several sources. To estimate the farm milk equivalent (m.e.) on milk-fat and skim-solids bases, estimated milk fat and skim solids are divided by estimates of milk fat and skim solids in U.S. farm milk, which vary from month to month.

National milk-fat test data for each month are provided by NASS. Since USDA does not report an average national solids-nonfat (SNF) test, ERS uses the weighted-average SNF test reported by USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service for the seven Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMOs) with component-based pricing (see https://www.ams.usda.gov/resources/marketing-order-statistics). In November 2018, a California FMMO became effective, and it is one of the seven FMMOs with component-based pricing. Prior to that, California milk handlers were regulated by a State milk marketing order, which was separate from the FMMO system and was administered by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA). For months prior to November 2018, ERS estimates a weighted-average SNF test for the United States, using the SNF test for the six FMMOs with component-based pricing (extrapolated to include all U.S. areas outside of California), SNF test data reported by CDFA, and milk production data reported by NASS.

For an Excel workbook with conversion factors for stocks, imports, and exports, net shipments to U.S. territories, and animal use estimates—as well as the sources for the conversion factors—see Dairy conversion factors and sources.

As an example, to convert 4,000 kilograms of Cheddar cheese imports or exports into a skim-solids basis milk equivalent in a month when skim solids in farm milk equal 8.99 percent, the following formula would be used:

(product quantity [kilograms or liters] × metric to pounds conversion factor)
     × (skim solids percentage) / (SNF Test)
     = pounds on skim-solids m.e. basis

(4,000 kg of cheese × 2.204623 pounds/kilogram)
     × (29.9% of skim solids in Cheddar cheese) / (8.99 % of skim solids in farm milk)
     = 29,330 pounds on a skim-solids m.e. basis

This number is divided by 1 million, as commercial disappearance numbers on milk-equivalent bases are published in million-pound units.

Net shipments to U.S. territories

As with the data file “Supply and utilization for dairy product categories,” net shipments to U.S. territories for milk in all products include shipments from the United States to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands minus shipments from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to the United States. The same HS codes and conversion factors that are used for exports are also used for net shipments to U.S. territories.

Animal feed use estimates

Animal feed use estimates are based on data published in the annual report series Dairy Products Utilization and Production Trends, by the American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI). For some dry milk products (dry skim milk products, dry whole milk, and dry buttermilk), domestic animal feed use includes products produced for animal use and products originally intended for human use but used for animal feed. For several whey products, animal feed use estimates are included for the entire period. For data beginning in 2019, animal use of whey products originally intended for human consumption is explicitly reported by ADPI, in addition to animal use of products originally intended for animal feed use. ADPI reports some feed use quantities as “undesignated” dry milk products and “undesignated” whey products. In these cases, conversion factor percentages used are weighted averages of the conversion factors for designated products.

Other uses

The “Other uses" column in each annual table includes milk pooled on Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMOs), or products produced from milk pooled on FMMOs, “that is dumped, used for animal feed, destroyed, or lost by a handler in a vehicular accident, flood, fire, or similar occurrence beyond the handler’s control” (7 CFR §1000.40 (e)). Data are not available for such occurrences related to milk not pooled on FMMOs.

Supply and allocation of milk fat and skim solids by product

Seven tables are provided for the supply and allocation of milk fat and skim solids by product:

  • Product volumes (millions of pounds)
  • Milk-fat supply and dairy industry allocation (million pounds)
  • Skim-solids supply and dairy industry allocation (million pounds)
  • Milk-fat percent of total supply by product
  • Skim-solids percent of total supply by product
  • Milk-fat content of products (percentages)
  • Skim-solids content of products (percentages)

Primary data sources

The source for most of the supply and product volume data is USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The primary data source for imports is the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS); California Department of Food and Agriculture; other State agencies; and ERS calculations are sources for fluid beverage milk sales (see documentation for “Fluid beverage milk sales quantities by product” below). AMS is the source for production of cream products prior to 2007 and sour cream prior to 2003. The annual publication Dairy Products Utilization and Production Trends, by the American Dairy Product Institute (ADPI), is the source for estimated milk permeate and whey permeate production since 2012. Many sources are used to estimate milk fat and skim solids associated with the dairy products. (See Dairy conversion factors and sources). Most product categories include several products. In these cases, the milk-fat and skim-solids content percentages are weighted averages of products within the category.

Accounting for milk fat and skim solids in fluid milk products

ERS estimates the milk-fat and skim-solids content of fluid milk products by assembling data from various sources. The following steps are used in the estimation:

  1. AMS has provided ERS with the milk-fat content of fluid milk sales by product for Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) in-area sales. Milk-fat content data for fluid milk sales by product outside of FMMO areas are not readily available.
  2. Until November 2018, California had a milk marketing order system that was independent from the FMMO system. Neither milk-fat nor skim-solids data for fluid milk sales by product are readily available for the former California system; skim-solids data for fluid milk sales by product are not readily available for FMMO areas. As a starting point for skim-solids accounting for fluid milk sales by product in FMMO areas and California, calculations were made using skim-solids percentage estimates obtained from sources such as the National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, published by the USDA, Agricultural Research Service. For California, the same types of calculations were used for milk fat.
  3. While skim-solids content data are not readily available for each type of fluid milk product sold in FMMO areas, Class I total skim-solids percentages for pooled milk are available for some FMMOs. (Class I milk includes pooled milk that is processed and packaged as fluid beverage milk products.) Skim-solids percentages derived in step 2 above have been adjusted proportionally so that the skim-solids percentage for total fluid milk sales by product is equal to the skim-solids percentage for Class I pooled milk for the FMMOs with published skim-solids percentages.
  4. While milk-fat and skim-solids content data are not readily available for each type of fluid milk product sold in California in months prior to November 2018, data for the overall Class 1 milk-fat and skim-solids content for pooled milk are available (In the FMMO system, a Roman numeral I is used for milk processed into fluid beverage milk products, while an Arabic numeral 1 was used for the former California system.) For California, the milk-fat and skim-solids content estimates for each product as derived in step 2 have been adjusted proportionally so that the milk-fat and skim-solids percentages of total fluid milk sales by product are equal to the milk-fat and skim-solids percentages for Class 1 pooled milk. Note that the standards for components in California are higher than the rest of the United States, so average milk-fat and skim-solids percentages are usually higher.
  5. For areas outside of FMMO areas or California, the milk-fat and skim-solids percentages by product are assumed to be the same as that of the FMMOs.
  6. The total estimated milk-fat and skim-solids content for each product in the United States is the sum of the estimated milk-fat and skim-solids content for the FMMO areas, California (in months prior to November 2018), and the areas outside of FMMO areas or California.

Adjustments to avoid duplication

Net totals for some products are provided to avoid duplication in accounting for milk solids due to the use of dairy products as ingredients in other dairy products. Dairy Products Utilization and Production Trends, by ADPI, is used in accounting for this duplication. ADPI reports include dairy industry uses of certain products by volume and as percentages of total domestic sales. In most cases, ERS uses ADPI percentage estimates rather than the volume estimates because ERS calculations of total domestic sales sometimes differ from those of ADPI. For bulk evaporated and condensed milk, ADPI reports dairy industry use of milk solids rather than product volumes (which would include the water and sweeteners); thus, ERS reports net totals for milk fat and skim solids for the products but not net totals for product volumes.

Dairy Products, Per Capita Consumption

ERS provides annual per capita consumption estimates for major dairy products. For most products, per capita consumption is calculated by dividing domestic disappearance by the U.S. resident population plus armed forces overseas, as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. The July 1 population estimate for each year is used.

Fluid beverage milk is the exception, with per capita consumption calculated by dividing estimated route disposition by the U.S. resident population. (The definition for route disposition is provided in the documentation below for "Fluid beverage milk sales quantities by product.") The armed forces overseas population data are not included in the calculation because the route disposition data do not include overseas deliveries.

Fluid beverage milk sales quantities by product

ERS reports annual estimated U.S. sales quantities of fluid beverage milk. USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) provides ERS with data for milk sales quantities by product within Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) areas. Milk sales data are based on route disposition, which is defined in the U.S. Code of Regulations as “delivery to a retail or wholesale outlet (except a plant), either directly or through any distribution facility (including disposition from a plant store, vendor, or vending machine) of a fluid milk product in consumer-type packages or dispenser units” (7 CFR 1000.3).

While the AMS data account for most of the fluid beverage milk sold in the United States, there are substantial areas of the country that are not covered by the AMS data because they are not subject to FMMO regulations. Some areas outside of FMMOs have State regulations that are similar to the FMMO system. Until November 2018, the entire State of California operated under its own similar system, and fluid milk sales data for California were publicly reported by the California Department of Food and Agriculture. In November 2018, a new FMMO became effective for California, and in-area fluid milk sales data for California have since been reported by AMS.

 ERS receives fluid milk sales data from other State entities as follows: 

  • New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets: fluid milk sales quantities by product for the Western New York Milk Marketing Area.
  • Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services: fluid milk sales quantities (not broken out by product) for Eastern, Western, and Southwestern Market areas of the State.
  • Montana Department of Livestock: fluid milk sales quantities for the State (not broken out by product).
  • Maine Milk Commission: fluid milk sales quantities sold in containers with volume greater than or equal to 1 quart (not broken out by product).

For areas where sales by product are known, per capita quantities by product are calculated using county population data covering each area. For areas where sales by product are not available but total fluid sales quantities are, ERS assumes that proportions of quantities sold in those areas match proportions of the areas where sales by product data are provided.

There are some areas of the country for which no fluid milk sales data are currently available. These include parts of Ohio, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Idaho, and Pennsylvania. No data are available for the entire States of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, or Hawaii.

From 2000 through March 2004, the entire State of Utah and parts of Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and Wyoming were included in a Western FMMO area. The Western FMMO was terminated as of April 1, 2004. For April 2004 through the most current year of data availability, ERS estimates per capita consumption in these areas as follows:

Former Western order area quantity =
     (Total FMMO quantity + California quantity) ×
     {2000 to 2003 average of [(Western FMMO quantity)/
     (Total FMMO quantity + California quantity)]}

Fluid milk in Alaska and Hawaii is relatively expensive compared with other parts of the country because most of it is shipped long distances from other States. With relatively high prices, ERS assumes that per capita fluid milk consumption in these States matches the FMMO area with the minimum per capita sales for the year—usually either the Southeastern or Appalachian FMMO area. For counties with no fluid milk sales quantity data other than those in the former Western FMMO, Alaska, or Hawaii, per capita sales quantities are assumed to match the aggregate per capita quantities where data are available.

Selected soft dairy products, domestic use

ERS reports domestic use of frozen products, yogurt, cottage cheese, sour cream, and fluid cream products. ERS uses production data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and import and export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census as reported by the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Data for frozen products, reported in gallons by NASS, are converted to pounds, with ice cream products and other frozen products assumed to weigh 4.7 and 6 pounds per gallon, respectively. Where possible, domestic use is calculated as production plus imports minus exports. Where detail is not available for every term of the calculation, aggregated data for imports and exports are apportioned in accordance with production of the products. Production numbers, not adjusted for imports and exports, are provided for cottage cheese and sour cream. Domestic use of fluid cream products is not reported for years after 2006 because primary data are not readily available.

Milk cows and production by State and region

For this annual data file, ERS provides regional subtotals for milk cows, milk per cow, and milk production from State data provided by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Milk production and factors affecting supply

For this table, most of the primary data are provided by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For years after 2008, the slaughter price is calculated as an estimated live weight equivalent from a national price for domestic cutter cows as reported by USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service. Note that the table includes both a January 1 inventory value for milk cows and an average inventory value as reported by NASS. The former is displayed to provide a comparison of replacement heifers to milk cows for the beginning inventory each year.

Number and size of milk bottling plants

This data file includes two tables with overlapping periods, 1960 to 2011 and 2008 to the most current year available. The plant data covering the earlier period were calculated by ERS from Federal Milk Marketing Order data and various State data sources. In recent years, this method has been judged less accurate than using data from the Interstate Milk Shippers List (IMS List), published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The plant count from FDA as of July for each year was used to construct a series with data since 2008. For the table with data since 2008, plants producing the following products have been included in the total:

  • Pasteurized whole milk, reduced fat, low fat, and skim.
  • Heat-treated (may include reduced fat, skim, low fat, or cream).
  • Ultra-pasteurized milk and milk products (except plants that only produce cream products).
  • Aseptic milk and milk products (including flavored, but not including plants that only produce cream products). 

Fluid milk plants may be undercounted in this data file. Fluid milk bottling plants are listed in the IMS List if they have been certified by State milk sanitation authorities as being in compliance with the FDA Grade A Pasteurized Milk Ordinance. If a plant serves an area within a State, but milk from the plant does not cross State lines, the plant does not need this certification. Data for such plants are not readily available. The number of fluid milk plants operating under these circumstances is assumed to be small.

To calculate the average-size milk plant, the total quantity for the year as reported in the "Fluid beverage milk sales quantities by product" file is divided by the number of plants for the year.

Per capita consumption of selected cheese varieties

Due to changes in data availability, two tables are provided, one with data since 1995 and another with data from 1970 to 1994. Per capita consumption is calculated as domestic use divided by population of U.S. residents plus armed forces overseas. For all varieties included in the table, production data are available. For some varieties, data concerning stocks, imports, exports, and shipments to U.S. territories are available to calculate domestic use as calculated in “Supply and utilization for dairy product categories” (described in a section above). However, for most varieties, since such detail is not available for every term of the calculation, aggregated data (for stocks, exports, etc.) are apportioned in accordance with the production of cheese varieties.

Commercial disappearance for dairy product categories (historical data for 1995–2010)

“Commercial disappearance for dairy product categories,” covering the period from 1995 to 2010, is the predecessor of the “Supply and utilization for dairy product categories,” described in a section above, covering the period from 2011 to current. For purposes of brevity, in this section, we will abbreviate the names of these files as CmDsProd and S_U_DyPr.

The CmDsProd and S_U_DyPr files are very similar. Most differences reflect the differences in Government programs of the two periods. The last year of activity for the Dairy Products Price Support Program (DPPSP, formerly the Milk Price Support Program) and the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) was 2010, and both programs were repealed by the Agricultural Act of 2014. Under a barter program conducted by USDA in 2009 and 2010, Government stocks of nonfat dry milk were exchanged for products containing substantial dairy content.

For the period when these programs were active, it is important to account for USDA net removals of dairy products (price support purchases + DEIP subsidized exports -unrestricted sales of U.S. Government stock) and barters. Thus, one of the key differences between the two files is that CmDsProd tables for butter, dry skim milk products, American type cheese, and other-than-American type cheese include columns for USDA net removals and barters. Another key difference is that only commercial stocks and commercial exports are included in CmDsProd; Government stocks (mostly owned by the U.S. Government, but some owned by State governments) and U.S. Government-subsidized exports are excluded. Instead of calculating domestic disappearance, as with S_U_DyPr, domestic commercial disappearance (which excludes U.S. Government activity through DPPSP, DEIP, and the barter program) is calculated in CmDsProd as follows:

total commercial supply = beginning commercial stocks + production + imports

total commercial disappearance = total commercial supply
     - USDA net removals and barters - commercial ending stocks

domestic commercial disappearance = total commercial disappearance
     - commercial exports

Another difference between the CmDsProd and S_U_DyPr is that S_U_DyPr has annual adjustments for shipments to U.S. territories and animal feed use that do not appear in CmDsProd. While the S_U_DyPr has calculations for apparent domestic human use, CmDsProd does not. Also, CmDsProd does not include a table for evaporated and condensed whole milk as S_U_DyPr does. Some of the annual adjustments for years prior to 2011 are provided in the “Milk, Supply and utilization of all dairy products” data file, as discussed in a section below.

Most of the data sources for CmDsProd are the same as for S_U_DyPr. Additional data sources for CmDsProd include USDA, Farm Service Agency (FSA) for data concerning price support purchases and unrestricted sales of U.S. Government stocks. USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service and FSA are sources for U.S. Government-subsidized exports. Since the CmDsProd does not disaggregate animal feed use from human use, the American Dairy Products Association is not a data source for CmDsProd.

Commercial disappearance of milk in all products (historical data for 1995–2010)

“Commercial disappearance of milk in all products,” covering the period from 1995 to 2010, is the predecessor of “Supply and utilization of milk in all products, described in a section above, covering the period from 2011 to current. For the sake of brevity, we will abbreviate the names of these files as CmDsMilk and S_U_Milk.

CmDsMilk and S_U_Milk are very similar. Both include monthly and annual data for:

  • Milk-equivalent milk-fat basis
  • Milk-equivalent skim-solids basis
  • Milk fat
  • Skim solids

Most of the differences between CmDsMilk and S_U_Milk are for the same reasons as the differences between CmDsProd and S_U_DyPr, described in the section above. One of the key differences between CmDsMilk and S_U_Milk is that CmDsMilk includes columns for USDA net removals and barters. Commercial stocks and commercial exports are included in CmDsMilk. Government stocks and U.S. Government-subsidized exports are excluded in CmDsMilk. Instead of calculating domestic disappearance, as with S_U_Milk, domestic commercial disappearance (which excludes U.S. Government activity through DPPSP, DEIP, and the barter program) is calculated in CmDsMilk as follows:

milk marketings = milk production - farm use

total commercial supply = beginning commercial stocks + production + imports

total commercial disappearance = total commercial supply
      - USDA net removals and barters - commercial ending stocks

domestic commercial disappearance = total commercial disappearance
      - commercial exports

S_U_Milk has annual adjustments for household farm use, shipments to U.S. territories, animal feed use, and “other uses” that do not appear in CmDsMilk. While S_U_Milk has columns for apparent domestic human use in the annual worksheets, CmDsMilk does not. Some of the annual adjustments for years prior to 2011 are provided in the “Milk, Supply and utilization of all dairy products” data file, as discussed in the section below.

Most of the data sources for CmDsMilk are the same as for S_U_Milk. Additional data sources for CmDsMilk include USDA, Farm Service Agency (FSA) for data concerning price support purchases and unrestricted sales of U.S. Government stocks. USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service and FSA are the sources for U.S. Government subsidized exports. Since CmDsMilk does not disaggregate animal feed use from human use, the American Dairy Products Association is not a data source for CmDsMilk.

Conversion factors are the same for imports, exports, and stocks in CmDsMilk and S_U_DyPr. The conversion factors used for net Government removals and barters are the same as those used for stocks.

Commercial exports, DEIP, and Government export donations

Dairy exports through DEIP or U.S. Government export donations must be subtracted from total exports reported by the Census Bureau to represent an accurate commercial export figure. ERS has obtained monthly data for DEIP amounts and U.S. Government donations starting in 2004. For years before 2004, ERS has only annual estimates of DEIP and Government export donations. Therefore, for years prior to 2004, ERS has made the simplifying assumption that monthly Government-related exports are the same proportion of total exports for each month of the year.

Milk supply and utilization of all dairy products (historical data for 1970–2010)

This data file includes annual supply and utilization tables for milk on a milk-fat equivalent basis; butter; dry skim milk products; condensed and evaporated milk; American type cheese; and other-than-American type cheese. Note that these numbers are similar to annual commercial disappearance numbers reported for dairy product categories and milk in all products. However, for these supply and utilization tables, stocks include Government stocks (for the period when they were reported) in addition to commercial stocks. In contrast to the commercial disappearance data files, the milk supply and utilization tables account for shipments to U.S. territories and U.S. Government export donations. Thus, U.S. domestic human use quantities from commercial and Government sources are estimated. While the commercial disappearance data can be computed monthly, utilization numbers as computed for this data file can be computed only annually due to data constraints.

For 2011–current, the annual tables in the data files “Supply and use for milk in all products” and “Supply and use for dairy product categories” serve the functions of this historical data covering 1970–2010. The current files are more comprehensive in that they include estimates for apparent human use of milk on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis, skim solids, dry whey, whey protein concentrate, and lactose.

Archived historical data

Previously published dairy data are available in the Dairy Yearbook accessible through the USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS), a collaborative project between the Albert R. Mann Library at Cornell University and several USDA agencies. The Dairy Yearbook contains data on production, supply, and use of milk and manufactured dairy products, wholesale and retail price indexes, prices received by farmers, milk production costs, and regional shares of U.S. milk production, among other information. The Dairy Yearbook was last updated in September 2005. Archived data may not be comparable to the current Dairy Data tables because of subsequent changes in the methods used to calculate supply and use.

Recommended citation

U. S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Dairy Data.