ERS Charts of Note

Tuesday, April 4, 2023

The United Kingdom (U.K.) is the world’s fifth-largest importer of agricultural and related goods and a large market for U.S. products. The U.K. imported $78.2 billion in agricultural and related goods in 2021 and exported $31.9 billion, less than half the value of imports. Historically, the European Union has been the largest trading partner with the U.K., but the U.K.’s formal departure from the European single market, known as “Brexit,” will likely impact the UK’s trade dynamics as the country seeks to diversify trading partners. An estimated two-thirds of agricultural goods imported by the U.K. in 2021 were high-value, consumer-oriented products, such as distilled spirits, dairy products, and processed seafood products. Imports of agricultural-related products, namely forest products (primarily wood pellets used for power generation), have reached double-digit growth in recent years. Forest products were the largest single commodity group imported into the U.K. from the global market in 2021 at $9.66 billion, with the United States the top country-level supplier at $1.33 billion. The United States also exported about $1.12 million in alcoholic beverages to the U.K. in 2021. On the other side of trade, the U.K. is a top supplier of alcoholic beverages (primarily distilled spirits) to the United States, although its share has given way to larger, more efficient producers such as France in recent years. Agreements between the U.K. and the United States in 2022 to allow for the export of British beef and lamb to the United States for the first time since the 1990s are expected to generate $50 million in trade over the next 5 years based on British estimates. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report, United Kingdom Agricultural Production and Trade Policy Post-Brexit, February 2023.

Thursday, March 2, 2023

With a total value of $28 billion, Mexico is projected to be the United States’ second largest destination for U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2022 (October–September), after China. Between FY 2018 and 2022, Mexico’s share of all U.S. agricultural exports rose from just under 13 percent to about 14 percent and is forecast to reach 15 percent in FY 2023. Mexico’s share of U.S. exports varies by product. On average, Mexico purchased $6.5 billion in U.S. grains and feeds per year from FY 2018 to 2022, accounting for 18 percent of the largest export commodity group. Demand for grains and feed has been spurred by the expansion of Mexico’s cattle industry and growing consumption of animal products. Between FY 2018 and 2022, Mexico’s imports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products represented an average of 18 percent of total U.S. exports and accounted for $6.3 billion in sales. In recent years, Mexico’s imports of U.S. dairy and poultry have been particularly strong, with demand for nonfat dry milk and chicken cuts driving Mexico’s import share as high as 24 percent. Bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States is facilitated by relatively low transportation costs as well as trade advantages afforded by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. These factors, as well as sustained demand, are expected to continue fueling growth in U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico through FY 2023. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, February 2023.

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports have almost returned to seasonal-average levels since summer 2022, when Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative to reopen Black Sea routes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to elevated security risks and infrastructure damage, causing Ukraine’s seaports to be almost completely cut off from March through July. The restrictions limited exports and led to an accumulation of corn and wheat stocks. As global exportable supplies diminished, international wheat export prices spiked. Signed in July 2022, the Black Sea agreement enabled the safe passage of Ukraine grain exports through three ports. That and ample corn and wheat stocks allowed Ukraine to export a larger combined volume of the two crops than the five-year average in September and October. In December, Ukraine was able to export more than 3.0 million metric tons of corn, the largest since the beginning of the war, and 1.6 million metric tons of wheat. The Black Sea Grain Initiative has increased the opportunities for Ukrainian grain to leave the country and has relieved some price pressures internationally, but uncertainty remains as the agreement is set to expire in mid-March 2023 and may not be extended. This chart was drawn from “Feature Article: Changes in Ukraine Wheat and Corn Export Patterns Since the Start of the Ukraine-Russia War,” which appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Wheat Outlook: January 2023.

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

The value of U.S. agricultural imports (adjusted for inflation) grew an average of 4 percent a year between fiscal years 2012 and 2022 (October to September). Over that time, total U.S. agricultural imports rose from $139 billion to $194 billion, with growth concentrated in select commodity groups. Horticultural products grew at a rate of 6 percent a year during the period and, at $97.2 billion in value in 2022, accounted for 65 percent of the total growth in imports. Within the broad horticultural products group, fresh fruits were the largest contributor at $17.9 billion, growing at an annual rate of 9 percent over the period and accounting for 15 percent of total import growth. Key commodities in the fresh fruit group include avocados, berries, and citrus, which the United States imports mostly from Latin American countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Peru. Growth in demand for horticultural products, including fresh fruits, largely has been driven by consumer desire for year-round supply, changing consumer preferences, and foreign production that is increasingly competitive with domestically grown produce. Imports of the commodity groups livestock and meats, grains and feeds, and oilseeds and products, which together were about 60 percent of the value of horticultural product imports in 2012, each also grew at about 6 percent per year, contributing to a total of about 40 percent of the growth from 2012 to 2022. Sugar and tropical products, dairy and products, and other categories had below average growth rates and contributed less to agricultural import growth. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, November 2022.

Monday, December 12, 2022

Increasing incomes, populations, and urbanization in Africa have generated new agricultural investment opportunities for foreign firms. Foreign direct investments (FDI) in the food and beverage sector are one mechanism to build and extend Africa’s agricultural value chains, the processes connecting food production, delivery, and the consumer. A key type of these investments is greenfield FDI, which are investments made by a foreign firm to start a new venture or subsidiary in another country. From 2016 to 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, United States, and Belgium were the largest sources of greenfield FDI in the food and beverage sector in Africa. U.S. food and beverage greenfield FDI has been consistent over time, ranging between $1.5 to $2 billion during each 5-year period from 2006 through 2020. Investments made by companies in Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and Lebanon from 2016 to 2020 were also sizable, followed by Singapore and the United Kingdom. Notably, China’s greenfield FDI activity in this sector was relatively small, reaching just under $500 million in 2016 to 2020. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Christmas trees and poinsettias are iconic symbols of the holiday season. While the vast majority are grown in the United States for domestic use, a small share of both plants are imported from Canada. Trade is highly seasonal, with 99 percent of Christmas trees and 95 percent of poinsettias shipping between November and December. From 2000–15, live Christmas tree imports averaged around 2 million trees per year at an inflation-adjusted annual value of $36.1 million. However, by 2022, live tree imports reached nearly 2.8 million trees at a value of $68 million. Import values of live trees had previously spiked in 2020 because of COVID-19 supply chain issues, and prices have remained relatively high since. Poinsettias first grew in popularity as a Christmas flower in the United States after they were brought from Mexico in the 1820s. In the early 2000s, the United States imported as many as 5.9 million live plants per year before that number dipped to 1.2 million in 2011, in parallel to the narrowing of the U.S. to Canadian dollar exchange rate. In recent years, the number of plants has gradually increased with a more significant increase in value. In 2022, live poinsettia imports totaled 2.2 million plants worth $11.5 million. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, November 2022.

Thursday, September 15, 2022

The value of total U.S. exports, excluding the re-export of foreign-origin goods, has grown at an average annual rate of 6 percent since 2002, reaching a record high of $1.4 trillion in fiscal year (FY) 2021. While the bulk of total U.S. exports was associated with industrial supplies and capital goods, agriculture’s share of total U.S. exports has steadily increased. Between fiscal years 2002 and 2021, the value of U.S. exports of agricultural products rose by an average of 11 percent annually, exceeding the overall rate of increase for total U.S. exports. In 2021, agricultural exports accounted for 12 percent of the total value, up from 9 percent in 2002. Growth in agricultural exports has largely been resilient to market shocks associated with the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Even as total U.S. exports fell by 12 percent during COVID-19’s onset in fiscal year 2020, agricultural exports remained steady on the strength of surging shipments of soybeans, corn, and pork to China. In 2021, total U.S. exports rebounded by 14 percent as global demand recovered and trade restrictions were relaxed. However, exports of agricultural products surged 23 percent to $172 billion on increased demand for grains and feed, followed by oilseeds and animal products. Much of this demand came from China, but also Mexico and Canada, consistently among the top three importers of U.S. products. While China’s demand for U.S. soybeans, corn, and other feed products rose because of its hog sector rebuilding from the African swine flu outbreak, agricultural exports to Mexico and Canada were bolstered by their growing livestock and poultry sectors, integrated supply chains, and the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Led by increases in corn, cotton, and soybean shipments, agricultural exports are forecast to reach a record $196 billion in FY 2022 and are projected to remain strong at $193.5 billion in FY 2023. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, August 2022.

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

In fiscal year (FY) 2021, the value of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports rose to a record level. That record is projected to rise another 9 percent in FY 2022 (October–September) to $42.6 billion. Import volumes are also expected to grow 3 percent in FY 2022 to 29.4 million metric tons. This would further extend the trend seen from FY 2000 to FY 2021, during which the volume of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports increased 124 percent while the inflation-adjusted value of those imports increased 208 percent. This shift indicates that, on a per volume basis, imported fruits and vegetable products are priced higher than they were 20 years ago as growth in the value of these imports has exceeded growth in volume. Steadily increasing unit prices for imported fresh fruits and vegetables, up from $753 per metric ton in FY 2000 to $1,192 in FY 2021, have contributed significantly to the observed trend. In contrast, prices for imports of processed fruits and vegetables have been relatively stable. In FY 2021, fruits and vegetables accounted for 24 percent (almost $39 billion) of the total value of U.S. agricultural imports. Fresh fruit imports comprised the largest individual share by value at $15.5 billion, followed by fresh vegetables at $10.5 billion and processed vegetables and processed fruits, which were each about $6.5 billion. Some of the main fresh products were berries, tomatoes, avocados, and bananas, while the chief processed products included fruit juices and frozen vegetables. This chart was drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, published May 2022.

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

In the United States, growing consumption of wine has contributed to an increase in wine imports, from 127 million gallons in fiscal year 2000 to 456 million gallons in FY 2021, reaching nearly $7.5 billion in value. Most wine imports come from the European Union (EU), accounting for 75 percent of the total value and 50 percent of the volume. Specifically, the top two countries of origin, Italy and France, each supplied about $2.5 billion in wine imports in FY 2021, although the volume from Italy was more than twice that of France because of its lower average price. In 2020, imports from the EU temporarily decreased in response to a 25-percent U.S. tariff placed in late 2019 on French, German, Spanish, and English wine that was lifted in early 2021. Until 2017, Australia was the third-largest supplier, providing as much as 21 percent of U.S. imports of wine, although that decreased to just 4 percent in 2021 following a prolonged drought and ongoing shifts in global markets. During this time, New Zealand’s share grew to 7 percent. South America, mainly Argentina and Chile, supplied as much as 15 percent of U.S. wine imports in 2012 but now provides less than 7 percent. U.S. wine imports are projected to increase to $7.7 billion in FY 2022. While the United States is a net importer of wine, it exported $1.5 billion in 2021 to destinations including Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, February 2022.

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

The benefits of agricultural exports to the U.S. economy far exceed the value of shipments alone. The production, processing, storage, transportation, and marketing of farm and food products bound for the export market support many full-time jobs throughout the United States. Related job statistics are estimated annually by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) by measuring the employment and output effects of trade in farm and food products. In 2020, U.S. agricultural exports supported the equivalent of more than 1.13 million jobs on and off the farm. With U.S. agricultural exports valued at more than $150 billion in 2020, every $1 billion of exports is estimated to create 7,550 jobs. Farm activities generated by U.S. exports—mainly crop and livestock production—supported a total of 439,500 jobs. These jobs included labor provided by farm operators and their family members, hired farmworkers, and contract workers. Off the farm, exports supported 423,900 total jobs in the services, trade, and transportation industries. Food-processing activities created 162,100 jobs, while other manufacturing activities, such as packaging, canning, and bottling, gave rise to 107,000 jobs. This chart is drawn from ERS’s Agricultural Trade Multiplier, released February 2022. See also the Amber Waves infographic, 2020 U.S. Agricultural Trade Multiplier for Soybeans.

Friday, March 4, 2022

Errata: On March 8, 2022, the graphic presented in this Chart of Note was revised to better represent the differences between the dollar amounts of the economic activities.

Exports constitute a significant market for U.S. farm and food products and send ripples of activity through the nation’s economy. For instance, exports of grain first generate economic activity on the farm through purchases of inputs such as fuel and fertilizer, spurring additional economic activity in the manufacturing, trade, and transportation sectors. Getting the grain to the export market requires transportation, storage, and marketing, among many other services. This additional economic activity is estimated annually by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) using an agricultural trade multiplier that measures the employment and output effects of trade in farm and food products on the U.S. economy. Despite the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, which depressed foreign sales for several months, exports rebounded starting in August and increased significantly afterward. U.S. agricultural exports valued at $150 billion in 2020 generated an additional $154 billion in economic activity, for a total of $304 billion in economic output. This means that on average, every $1 of U.S. agricultural product exported generated a total $2.03 of domestic economic activity. No sector outside of crop and livestock production benefited more from agricultural exports than the services, trade, and transportation sector, which generated $68 billion worth of additional economic activity. On the farm, agricultural exports supported an additional $32 billion of business activity beyond the value of the agricultural exports themselves. This chart is drawn from ERS’s Agricultural Trade Multiplier, released February 2022. See also the Amber Waves infographic, 2020 U.S. Agricultural Trade Multiplier for Soybeans.

Monday, February 14, 2022

In the United States, the exchange of chocolate candies and other cocoa-based confections is a popular Valentine’s Day tradition. With cocoa beans only grown abroad, trade is critical to meet the U.S. consumer’s fondness for cocoa-based treats. The United States imported an average of $5.06 billion a year worth of cocoa and products between 2017–21 (not adjusted for inflation), including cocoa beans, paste, butter, powder, as well as foods prepared with cocoa such as chocolate. Imported shipments of chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa were the largest share of imports and were valued at almost $2.8 billion a year between 2017 and 2021. This category includes large bricks of chocolate that are further processed, in addition to smaller, retail-ready products. Cocoa beans, the raw seeds from the cacao tree that are processed into derivative products, were imported mostly from Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, and Ghana. The import value of cocoa beans averaged more than $1.1 billion annually over the 5-year period. Cocoa butter shipments, principally supplied by Indonesia and Malaysia, were valued at $576 million annually, while supplies of cocoa paste, mostly originating from Cote d’Ivoire, averaged about $293 million a year. The United States also exports chocolate and cocoa products to Canada and Mexico. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade published by USDA’s Economic Research Service, November 2021.

Monday, January 24, 2022

In 2018, six U.S. trading partners—Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, and Turkey—announced retaliatory tariffs affecting agricultural and food products. The agricultural products targeted for retaliation were valued at $30.4 billion in 2017, with individual product lines experiencing tariff increases ranging from 2 to 140 percent. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) estimated trade losses from retaliatory tariffs by State and commodity using data in the ERS State Exports, Cash Receipts Estimates. Estimated annualized losses from mid-2018 through the end of 2019 totaled $13.2 billion across 17 commodity groups, led by soybeans, sorghum, and pork. While retaliatory tariffs affected all States, those in the Midwest experienced the largest losses. ERS researchers estimated Iowa lost $1.46 billion; Illinois, $1.41 billion; and Kansas, $955 million, all on an annualized basis. Iowa and Illinois, which together produce 25 to 30 percent of U.S. soybeans, both experienced trade losses in excess of $1 billion for soybeans alone. The retaliatory tariffs followed the issuance of U.S. tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from major trading partners and on a broad range of imports from China. This chart can be found in the ERS report, The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture, published in January 2022.

Monday, September 20, 2021

Reduced supplies and rising demand for ground beef in the United States could potentially be reflected in the cost of fall tailgating parties across the Nation. While the United States is a major global supplier of beef, it also imports beef and processing-grade beef (used for ground beef) to meet a growing consumer demand. Historically, Australia is the predominant supplier of processing-grade beef to the United States, with smaller amounts coming from Brazil, Canada, and New Zealand, among other countries. As Australia rebuilds its cattle herd after a two-year drought, suppliers in that country are curtailing slaughter, limiting the amount of exportable beef and increasing the prices of those exports. In February 2021, imports from Australia reached a price of $240 per hundredweight (cwt) for 90-percent lean beef, and the volume dropped to under 17 million pounds, almost 27 million pounds lower than the 5-year average. In July 2021, that price rose to $274 per cwt. From January to July 2020, beef imports from Australia accounted for 20 percent of all U.S. beef imports whereas in 2021 Australia accounted for 12 percent. Intermittent monthly imports from other countries have partly offset reduced imports from this key partner. Meanwhile, as the economy reopens, the demand for beef and ground beef is expected to support beef prices. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s September 2021 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.

Monday, July 12, 2021

Raising the productivity of existing agricultural resources—rather than bringing new resources into production—has become the major source of growth in world agriculture. Farm productivity is measured by total factor productivity (TFP), an index that takes into account the land, labor, capital, and material resources employed in farm production and compares them with the total amount of crop and livestock output. If total output is growing faster than total inputs, then the total productivity of the factors of production (i.e., total factor productivity) is increasing. Using the latest available data through 2016, agricultural productivity has risen steadily in most industrialized countries at between 1 and 2 percent a year since at least the 1970s. Since the 1990s, many developing countries as well as transition economies that belonged to the former Soviet bloc also have increased their agricultural productivity. Long-term research investments to develop new technologies have been especially important to sustaining higher agricultural TFP growth rates in large, rapidly developing countries such as Brazil and India. Institutional and economic reforms, combined with technological changes, have led to significant benefits for Chinese agriculture. Additionally, Russian agriculture rebounded after the early 1990s economic transition from a planned to a market-based economy, and the southern region of the country achieved notable productivity improvement. In contrast, under-investment in agricultural research remains an important barrier to stimulating agricultural productivity growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. This chart appears in USDA, Economic Research Service data product for International Agricultural Productivity, updated November 2019.

Monday, June 21, 2021

The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates that inflation and income growth drove up the costs resulting from 15 foodborne illnesses in the United States by $2 billion from $15.5 billion in 2013 to $17.6 billion in 2018. For this estimate, ERS included medical care costs, the value of lost earnings, and a monetary measure of death based on individuals' willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying from foodborne illness. The biggest factor behind the increase in the overall costs of foodborne illnesses was the effect of inflation and income growth on the value people place on preventing deaths. However, the value of prevented deaths as a share of overall costs decreased slightly in 2018 compared to 2013 due to the substantial inflation in medical costs. Health effects from foodborne illness can vary by pathogen (bacteria, viruses, and parasites), ranging from a few days of diarrhea to more serious outcomes, such as kidney failure, cognitive impairment, and even death. Determining the overall costs of these health effects provides a common metric to compare impacts of different pathogens, a way to aggregate impacts across illnesses, and a means of comparing the costs of experiencing those illnesses with the costs of preventing them. More information can be found in the ERS’s updated Cost Estimates of Foodborne Illnesses data product. This chart appears in the ERS’s Amber Waves article, “Economic Cost of Major Foodborne Illnesses Increased $2 Billion From 2013 to 2018,” April 2021.

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

China’s corn imports jumped to a record 11.3 million metric tons in 2020, more than twice the volume imported in past years. The increase reflected rapidly increasing Chinese corn prices and China’s commitment to buy U.S. agricultural products under the Phase One trade agreement between China and the United States. Corn is the predominant ingredient in China’s growing animal feed production and is widely used in other food, starch, and alcohol products. In past years, a cumbersome import quota made it difficult for Chinese feed mills and processors to import corn, so they often imported substitutes such as sorghum, barley, distillers’ grains, cassava, and field peas that have low prices and no quotas. Imports of all feed ingredients were relatively low during 2019 because of high tariffs on U.S. commodities and a lull in feed demand due to a disease epidemic that reduced China’s swine herd. In 2020, imports of corn and its substitutes increased to a combined total of more than 30 million metric tons. Large purchases by Chinese state-owned companies and a rapid increase in Chinese corn prices appear to have driven the increase in corn imports—which exceeded the quota for the first time. Rebuilding of the swine herd and waivers of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. sorghum may have contributed to the increase in imports of substitutes. However, imports of U.S. distillers’ grains were still constrained by high duties imposed by a 2016 Chinese anti-dumping investigation. This chart appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Feed Outlook, May 2021.

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Exports constitute a large market for U.S. farm and food products and send ripples of activity through the nation’s economy. For instance, farm purchases of fuel and fertilizer spur economic activity in the manufacturing, trade, and transportation sectors, and the movement of these agricultural exports requires data processing, financial, legal, managerial, and administrative services. This additional economic activity is estimated annually by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) using an agricultural trade multiplier that measures the employment and output effects of trade in farm and food products on the U.S. economy. In 2019, U.S. agricultural exports valued at $142 billion generated an additional $160 billion in economic activity, for a total of $302 billion in economic output. This means that on average, every dollar of U.S. agricultural product exported generated an additional $1.13 of domestic economic activity. No sector outside of crop and livestock production benefited more than the services, trade, and transportation sector, which generated $88 billion worth of additional economic activity because of U.S. agricultural exports. On the farm, agricultural exports supported an additional $31 billion of business activity beyond the value of the agricultural exports themselves. This chart is drawn from ERS’s Agricultural Trade Multiplier, released April 2021. Note: ERS’s agricultural trade multiplier relies on an estimate of $141.6 billion for U.S. agricultural exports in 2019. This value includes exports of biodiesel, which USDA does not classify as an agricultural product, in addition to the $141.2 billion of exports identified by USDA as agricultural using the World Trade Organization’s definition of agricultural products.

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

The United States is a major exporter of agricultural products, with about 20 percent of its farm output sold abroad. Economic crises in foreign markets typically reduce U.S. export sales. Economic crises decrease countries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer demand, including demand for imported agricultural goods. Crises also often weaken, or depreciate, countries’ currency against the U.S. dollar, which lowers their imports by making foreign products more expensive compared with domestically produced substitutes. To examine how a worldwide economic crisis might affect U.S. agricultural exports, researchers at USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) simulated a hypothetical economic crisis in the eight largest U.S. foreign agricultural markets. The exercise indicated that the value of U.S. exports of the seven commodities given in the chart could decline in the year of an economic crisis by $4 billion, an export drop of 6.6 percent (using average 2017-19 export volumes as the base). Model results show the value of U.S. exports of soybeans, beef, and pork falling by around 8 percent, and exports of wheat and corn by about 5 percent. The export value for a good equals its export volume multiplied by the trade price. Export values in the ERS exercise drop by a greater percentage than export volumes because the global economic crisis substantially decreases world demand, and thereby lowers prices, for traded agricultural products. The results of this exercise can provide insight into how the current world economic crisis caused by Coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting U.S. agricultural exports. This chart appears in the Economic Research Report Economic Crises and U.S. Agricultural Exports, released in April 2021.

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Researchers at USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) recently evaluated the potential impacts of the European Commission (EC)’s Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies initiative that calls for restrictions in the use of agricultural inputs such as land, antimicrobials, fertilizers, and pesticides in European Union (EU) agricultural production. The proposal pledges to use EC trade policies and other international efforts to promote a vision of sustainability in agriculture, suggesting intentions to extend the reach of the policy beyond the EU. A mandated reduction in these inputs impacts food prices in three ways: production costs could increase as farmers substitute labor for other inputs; production could decrease as a result of fewer inputs being used; and prices on the international market could increase due to tightening of available supplies. Depending on how broadly these measures to reduce the use of agricultural inputs would be adopted globally, U.S. food prices could rise by 1 to 62 percent, and worldwide food prices could grow by 9 to 89 percent. These rising costs could affect consumer budgets and ultimately reduce worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) by $94 billion to $1.1 trillion, and consequentially, increase the number of food-insecure people in the world’s most vulnerable regions by 22 million to 185 million. This chart is drawn from the ERS report, Economic and Food Security Impacts of Agricultural Input Reduction Under the European Union Green Deal’s Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies.