ERS Charts of Note

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Lettuce—the main ingredient in many salads and a popular sandwich topper—is the most widely consumed leafy green in the United States. In 2022, lettuce accounted for nearly one-fifth of the $21.8 billion that U.S. growers received in cash receipts from sales of vegetables and melons. Romaine lettuce sales totaled $1.54 billion, iceberg lettuce sales were $1.33 billion, and leaf lettuce sales trailed at $1.25 billion. An estimated 85 percent of the lettuce available for consumption in the United States was produced domestically in 2022. While production of lettuce occurs year-round, areas of production shift with the growing seasons. From mid-November through early April, most lettuce sold in the United States is sourced from the irrigated desert valleys of Southern California’s Imperial County and the Yuma area of Arizona. Shipments of lettuce from Florida help fill in regional market gaps during winter and spring months. From late April through mid-November, production shifts to Central California. From spring through fall, local production in most other States serves farmers markets, regional/local retail and restaurant demand, and community-supported agriculture. This chart is drawn from an article titled, “Lettuce Trends: Conventional, Organic Growth, and Production,” from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, April 2023.

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Consumers are eating fewer raisins, based on U.S. per capita availability data. In the past 10 years, acreage planted to raisin-type grapes declined more than 33 percent in California, which produces almost all U.S. raisins. Average per capita availability (a proxy for consumption) of dried raisins fell 15 percent in that time, according to USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates. This trajectory continues the gradual decline observed since availability peaked at more than 2 pounds per person in the late 1980s to a current low of 1.1 pounds. Some of the reasons behind the decline may include greater year-round availability of fresh fruit and competition from other dried fruit, such as cranberries, cherries, and blueberries. Pressure faced by U.S. raisin growers is not limited to declining per capita availability, however. Higher labor costs and lower priced exports from Turkey have also challenged the U.S. raisin industry in recent years. Along with an overall decrease in acreage and production, the United States has reduced both total export volume and the share of domestic production going to exports. This chart is drawn from ERS’ Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, March 2023.

Thursday, April 13, 2023

U.S. retail cotton use—an estimate of cotton product usage by consumers—decreased 8 percent in 2022 to 9.1 billion pounds. This decline was realized after a nearly 30-percent surge in 2021 when U.S. retail cotton use rebounded from the effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. In the United States, most retail clothing purchases are of imported products. Accordingly, clothing imports are used as an economic indicator for the health of the global textile and apparel industry. In 2021, U.S. cotton product imports—mostly clothing—jumped dramatically, as did U.S. mill use and cotton product exports—mostly yarn and fabric. By 2022, however, U.S. retail demand for cotton products slipped to near its pre-pandemic trend but was still the second highest in over a decade. Although each component of U.S. retail cotton use—cotton mill use, product exports, and product imports—decreased in 2022, the import decline was significantly larger and led the reduction in retail cotton use. As a result, the U.S. per capita estimate of retail cotton use slipped from nearly 30 pounds in 2021 to 27.5 pounds in 2022. With U.S. and world economic expansion projected to slow in 2023, limited growth is also expected for U.S. retail cotton use. This information is drawn from the Economic Research Service’s March 2023 Cotton and Wool Outlook.

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

In the United States, peanuts are grown mainly in the South, where the climate is warmer and growing seasons are longer than in northern zones. Most U.S. peanut production comes from six States: Georgia, Florida, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. According to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the U.S. peanut crop in 2022 was estimated at 5.57 billion pounds. Accounting for more than 50 percent of all U.S. peanut production, Georgia produced the most peanuts of any State, with a 2022 peanut crop estimated at 2.9 billion pounds. With production of 559 million pounds in 2022, Alabama’s peanut harvest was a distant second to Georgia, followed closely by Florida with 554 million pounds. The 2022 U.S. peanut crop was nearly 13 percent smaller than in 2021 because of lower acreage and yields. Smaller crops were estimated in all States except North Carolina, where production was pegged at 510 million pounds, a 3-percent increase from 2021. Production for Georgia was affected by a 9-percent year-to-year reduction in planted area that combined with reduced peanut yields because of an outbreak of the tomato spotted wilt virus. Moreover, NASS’s Weekly Crop Report indicated peanut growers in Texas and Oklahoma experienced above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in the critical development months of June, July, and August that negatively impacted yield and harvested area. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook, January 2023.

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

March 14 is known to many as Pi Day. The date resembles the mathematical constant π, roughly equal to 3.14, and for that reason, many celebrate the day by enjoying their favorite type of pie. In 2021, the United States grew $6.9 billion worth of seven popular fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts often used as the main ingredient in pie making. The value of production of these seven commodities in 2021, as measured by U.S. cash receipts, was the highest for apples, which are produced abundantly in the United States both in terms of volume and production value. The U.S. apple crop exceeded $3.03 billion in 2021, whereas production of blueberries reached $1.1 billion. Cash receipts for other fruit pie ingredients, cherries and peaches, were valued at $950 million and $624 million, respectively. Pecans, a tree nut, were valued at $551 million in terms of U.S. cash receipts. The pear crop of 2021 was valued at $373 million, while production of pumpkins, the fall icon and mainstay of the holiday table, was valued at $231 million. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Fruit and Tree Nuts and Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook Tables.

Monday, March 6, 2023

Insurance coverage of vegetable and pulse production varies widely by crop among the two Federal options for protection against losses from natural disasters. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) researchers examined USDA, Risk Management Agency (RMA) data on the acres covered under the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) and the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) to understand how vegetable and pulse producers have used Federal risk management options. For instance, RMA and Census of Agriculture data from 2017 shows that dry peas, dry beans, and tomatoes heavily used FCIP. Around 20 percent of cucumber and cabbage acreage was also covered by FCIP. When USDA does not offer FCIP policies in a county because of insufficient data to create an actuarially sound policy, farmers can still protect a crop through NAP. NAP provides protection against yield losses, though not revenue losses and covers a large portion of the acreage for some crops, such as sweet potatoes, pumpkins, and peppers but is used less frequently by lettuce growers. Cucumber and cabbage crops accounted for 11 percent and 16 percent of total acreage covered under NAP. Because there are no FCIP policies available for watermelon, lettuce, and squash crops, producers of those crops either enrolled in NAP or did not insure their crop. Slightly less than half of watermelon and squash acres were covered under NAP. Farmers who did not protect with either FCIP or NAP likely employ other management practices, such as crop rotations, irrigation, or growing in a protective structure, to maintain production and revenue. This chart appears in the Economic Research Service bulletin Specialty Crop Participation in Federal Risk Management Programs, published in September 2022.

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

About half of all wheat grown in the United States is exported, and geography largely determines the mode of transportation to ports. U.S. wheat production is heavily concentrated in the Great Plains and Northern Plains regions, which include Oklahoma, Kansas, South and North Dakota, and Montana. Wheat is also grown in the Midwest, parts of the Southeast, and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) regions, as well as California. The inland waterways of the Mississippi River and the Columbia-Snake River system enable exporters of soft red winter wheat and white wheat to use transportation by barge to move wheat to export facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and the PNW, respectively. In contrast, rail transportation dominates in the vast wheat-producing areas west of the Mississippi and east of the PNW. In this region, the long distances to ports and a lack of navigable waterways make freight transportation by truck or barge difficult or impossible. Producers of hard red spring wheat, which is primarily grown in the Northern Plains, are served by rail lines that run to Washington State and Oregon, providing easy access to ocean vessels that can transport wheat to markets in Asia and the rest of the world. Similarly, hard red winter (HRW) wheat production areas in the Central and Southern Plains are directly connected by rail to Mexico, the top import market for HRW. It is also shipped by rail from the Plains to export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico. From 2014 to 2019, about 50 to 60 percent of wheat exports were transported to port by rail. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Wheat Outlook, published in December 2022.

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Production and consumption of ethanol as a transportation fuel (largely sourced from corn) grew significantly over the last three decades in the United States before plateauing in recent years. The ethanol share of finished motor gasoline (FMG) has moved concurrently with consumption, leveling off near 10 percent in 2022. The Renewable Fuel Standard—which sets volumes of biofuels that must be blended with fossil fuels—influences ethanol’s share of FMG, along with other factors including relative prices. Steps taken in the spring of 2020 to combat the spread of COVID-19, such as increased remote work and school, and other social distancing efforts, resulted in sharp declines in a variety of ethanol market metrics. For example, from 2017–19, U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.33 billion gallons per month, while consumption averaged 1.18 billion gallons per month. During the pandemic lows, these values fell by 46 percent and nearly 40 percent, respectively, causing the ethanol share of FMG to decline to 9 percent. More recently, estimates for all three figures have largely recovered and leveled off. However, increasing adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles combined with continued fuel efficiency gains in gasoline vehicles are expected to put downward pressure on gasoline consumption and dampen prospects for renewed growth in fuel ethanol demand. This chart appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service report, Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030, February 2023.

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Total caloric sweetener deliveries from domestic producers and importers to end-users and brokers—an indicator of sweetener consumption in the United States—rose by 1 percent in 2021 to 127.4 pounds per capita. Annual growth in per capita sweetener deliveries had not been observed since 2014 amid the backdrop of a long-term declining trend that started after peaking at 153.7 pounds in 1999. Growth in 2021 was driven by an increase in refined sugar deliveries per capita, the largest component, which were up 1.9 percent in 2021 at 69.8 pounds and the highest since 1995. This growth countered the 1.2 percent decrease in per capita high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) deliveries to 39.5 pounds. HFCS deliveries, the other major component, have been steadily decreasing since topping out at 65.9 pounds in 1999, driving the long-term decline in total sweetener deliveries. While per capita deliveries of other caloric sweeteners (glucose, dextrose, honey, other edible syrups) increased by 2.4 percent in 2021, the volumes have been relatively small, historically hovering at 20 pounds. Some of the sweetened food and beverage products that are consumed in the United States, such as soft drinks, ice creams, or even U.S.-branded chocolates that are manufactured overseas, are imported. The contribution of these imports to per capita sweetener consumption is relatively small compared to domestic sweetener deliveries, but their share and volume have been steadily increasing since 2013, reaching 7.1 pounds per capita in 2021, an increase of 16.4 percent. Including estimated sweeteners from the imported sugar-containing products, per capita sweetener deliveries totaled 134.5 pounds in 2021. More information can be found in two special articles on sweetener deliveries that appeared in the January 2023 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, published by USDA, Economic Research Service.

Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Fresh oranges have long been a favorite fruit of U.S. consumers. They currently rank fourth among fresh fruit in per capita availability (a proxy for consumption) after bananas, melons, and apples. Nonetheless, the U.S. palate has changed over the last several decades. Between 2000 and 2022, domestic availability of fresh oranges fell from 11.7 pounds to 8.3 pounds per person, stabilizing over the last decade between 8 and 10 pounds depending on market conditions. At the same time, the tangerine citrus commodity group has soared in popularity, with per capita availability more than doubling between 2000 and 2022. This broad group includes tangelos, mandarins, clementines, and traditional tangerines. A comparison of per capita fresh tangerine and fresh orange availability over the last 20 years shows the share going to tangerines increasing from 20 to 40 percent. Growth of the U.S. tangerine market coincides with the launch of marketing campaigns for easy-peel seedless mandarins by some of the more prominent citrus supply companies. This chart is based on USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook Tables, released November 2022. The data for this chart do not account for spoilage, waste, and other losses. For data that takes these losses into account, see ERS’ Loss Adjusted Food Availability.

Monday, October 31, 2022

Spring wheat, a major class of U.S. wheat, annually accounts for about 25 percent of all wheat produced in the United States and is grown primarily in the U.S. Northern Plains States, mostly in North Dakota and Minnesota. Overly wet field conditions in spring 2022 delayed planting in both North Dakota and Minnesota resulting in 26 and 35 percent, respectively, of spring wheat acres being planted after June 5—USDA, Risk Management Agency’s (RMA) final planting date of all counties in those two States. That acreage was reported to USDA, Farm Service Agency as being prevented from on-time planting. If a farmer has not planted by the final planting date, most crop insurance policies offer compensation to offset expenses associated with preparing to plant, called a prevented planting payment. Alternatively, when commodity prices are high, some producers may choose to plant late because of field conditions and receive the market price for their harvest crop rather than take a prevented planting payment. RMA projected pre-season prices for spring wheat in North Dakota and Minnesota at $9.19 per bushel, the highest price in the last decade (2012–21), which may have contributed to acreage being planted later. This chart is drawn from the special article, "Factors Influencing Prevented Planting for Spring Wheat" in Economic Research Service’s Wheat Outlook, September 2022.

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Genetically engineered (GE) seeds were commercially introduced in the U.S. for major field crops in 1996, with adoption rates increasing rapidly in the years that followed. By 2008, more than 50 percent of corn, cotton, and soybean acres were planted with genetically engineered seeds. The total planted acreage with GE seeds has only increased since then, and now more than 90 percent of U.S. corn, upland cotton, and soybeans are produced using GE varieties. GE crops are broadly classified as herbicide-tolerant (HT) only, insect-resistant (Bt) only, or stacked varieties that combine both HT and Bt traits in a single seed. In the chart, both HT and Bt lines include stacked varieties which are a combination of both type of traits. Although other GE traits have been developed, such as virus and fungus resistance, drought resistance, and enhanced protein, oil, or vitamin content, HT and Bt traits are the most commonly used in U.S. crop production. While HT seeds are also widely used in alfalfa, canola, and sugar beet production, most GE acres are planted to three major field crops: corn, cotton, and soybeans. This chart appears in the ERS Topic Page Recent Trends in GE Adoption, published in 2022.

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Pumpkins are on full display across the United States as part of many fall traditions, such as picking pumpkins at local farms, carving jack-o’-lanterns for Halloween, or baking pumpkin desserts for Thanksgiving. The production of pumpkins, from classic orange Howdens to new varieties like Cinderella, is widely dispersed throughout the United States, with all States producing some pumpkins. However, about 40 percent of pumpkin acres are harvested in only six States. By acreage and weight, Illinois is consistently the Nation’s largest pumpkin producer. In 2021, Illinois produced 652 million pounds, more than a quarter of total U.S. pumpkin production and more than the next five States combined. Unlike all other States, most of Illinois’ pumpkins are used for pie filling and processed for other food uses. Pumpkins from the other States are primarily intended for decorative, or carving, use. In 2021, Indiana produced 181 million pounds of pumpkins, California grew 157 million pounds, Texas grew 108 million pounds, Michigan grew 89 million pounds, and Virginia grew 82 million pounds. Retail prices for pumpkins typically fluctuate week to week leading up to Halloween. In the third week of October 2022, the average retail price for jack-o’-lantern style pumpkins was $5.07 per pumpkin, up 2 percent compared to the same week in 2021. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page, Pumpkins: Background & Statistics.

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Errata: On Oct. 25, 2022, a clarification was made for Florida's ranking in citrus production.

On September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian made landfall as a category 4 hurricane on the southwest coast of Florida, the United States’ top producer of oranges. The hurricane crossed the peninsula, bringing severe winds and rainfall to some of the State’s foremost citrus-producing counties. Many of these same counties were affected by Hurricane Irma 5 years earlier. When Irma hit in September 2017, the State’s citrus production was already on a downward trajectory from diseases and other factors reducing acreage and yields. Florida’s citrus production fell by 1.3 million tons from the hurricane-free 2016/17 season, with the total value of production dropping 39 percent. On October 12, 2022, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released a citrus production estimate of about 1.4 million tons for the 2022/23 crop year. This forecast is 32 percent below total production from the previous season and does not take into consideration losses from Ian. While 2017 and 2022 hurricane events are distinct from one another, the effects of Irma can be used as a proxy to estimate the potential impact on value until the impact on the State’s total citrus production can be fully assessed. This chart is based on USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Report, released September 2022, and ERS’ Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook Tables, released October 2021, and has been updated with recent data.

Monday, October 17, 2022

U.S. production of durum—the primary class of wheat used to produce pasta—is expected to increase in the 2022/23 marketing year after last year’s drought reduced production to its lowest in 60 years. Production in 2022/23 is forecast at 64 million bushels, up 70 percent from the previous marketing year (2021/22), but below the average of the previous five years (2016/17–2020/21). Durum used for food in the 2022/23 marketing year is estimated at 80 million bushels, close to the historical average and slightly above 2021/22. Food use of durum was elevated in marketing years 2019/20 and 2020/21, fueled by surging consumer demand during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, when shoppers stocked up on pasta while in quarantine. While the surge in demand has since subsided, consumer prices for wheat-based products including pasta are up substantially in 2022. This year’s larger durum crop, along with larger Canadian production, has eased some supply pressure; however, high commodity prices in general and elevated input, labor, and energy costs have each contributed to higher prices for the manufactured products of wheat, including pasta. The United States imports and exports durum every year, with imports typically larger. Net imports rise in years when production is lower. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Wheat Outlook, October 2022.

Thursday, October 13, 2022

USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) annually estimates the previous year’s farm sector cash receipts—the cash income received from agricultural commodity sales. This data includes State-level estimates, which offer background information about States subject to unexpected events that affect the agricultural sector, such as Hurricane Ian, which swept across Florida and surrounding States in late September 2022. In 2021, commodities produced in Florida contributed about $7.5 billion (1.7 percent) of the $434 billion in total U.S. cash receipts. Floriculture, the cultivation of flowers, accounted for the largest share of Florida’s cash receipts. Valued at $1.1 billion (14.9 percent of the State’s total), floriculture receipts for Florida were higher than for any other State in 2021. The next largest commodities in Florida in terms of cash receipts were oranges ($670 million), sugarcane ($553 million), cattle and calves ($546 million), milk ($470 million), strawberries ($399 million) and tomatoes ($324 million). Certain Florida crops accounted for large percentages of U.S. cash receipts in 2021, such as sugarcane with 51 percent and oranges with 42 percent, while bell peppers and grapefruit accounted for roughly a third of U.S. production. In addition to floriculture, Florida led the nation in cash receipts for sugarcane, cabbage, cucumbers, watermelon, sweet corn, and snap beans. This chart uses data from the ERS U.S. and State-Level Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, updated in September 2022.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

From sweet and juicy to tart and crisp, apples grown in the United States vary with a wide range of characteristics. Prices received by apple producers reflect consumer preferences for these varied attributes, as well as production-related factors, including volume harvested, cultivation methods, and storability. In the State of Washington, where two-thirds of all U.S. apples are grown, price and production data for more than 20 different apple varieties are collected and published by the Washington State Tree Fruit Association. The iconic Red Delicious apple led production among varieties in Washington in the 2018/19 marketing year. This variety alone accounted for more than 29 million 40-pound boxes, or 25 percent of Washington State’s apple production for both domestic and international use. Red Delicious apples are usually harvested with a single pass through the orchard and are the easiest and least expensive variety for growers to harvest. In 2018/19, the price of a 40-pound box was $17.65, among the lowest of all varieties surveyed. Over the last two decades, varieties including Gala, Fuji, Granny Smith, and Honeycrisp have gained popularity among consumers. Honeycrisp apples are prized for their firm flesh and balance of both sweet and tart flavors—making them a popular snacking apple. Growing consumer demand has helped to elevate Honeycrisp production to more than 12 million 40-pound boxes in 2018/19 and supports both a retail- and farm-price premium. In 2018/19 Honeycrisp was Washington’s highest priced apple at $53.39 for a 40-pound box. Farm prices for Honeycrisp apples are higher, in part, because of elevated labor costs associated with harvest. Because this cultivar does not uniformly ripen, up to five passes through the orchard are required to harvest a crop of Honeycrisp apples. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service’s “Supplement to Adjusting to Higher Labor Costs in Selected U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Industries: Case Studies,” August 2022.

Monday, September 26, 2022

There are two permanent Federal options for specialty crop farmers to protect themselves against losses from natural disasters, but usage varies widely across fruit and nut crops. The USDA Risk Management Agency offers Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) products to cover specialty crops in counties with enough data available to offer an actuarially sound insurance product. For crops grown in counties without enough data to provide FCIP products, coverage is available through the USDA Farm Service Agency Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP). Using cherries as an example, FCIP is available for cherry growers who operate in counties with a high number of cherry acres. Because of this, farmers used FCIP to cover about 65 percent of all cherry acres. Cherry growers outside of those counties used NAP policies to cover about 20 percent of all cherry acres, leaving only 15 percent of acres not covered by any risk management program. For some crops, however, Federal agricultural risk management programs covered only a small portion of acres. Kiwifruits and strawberries had less than 15 percent of acres covered by either FCIP or NAP, while hazelnuts had less than 1 percent. This chart appears in the Economic Research Service bulletin Specialty Crop Participation in Federal Risk Management Programs, published in September 2022.

Monday, October 4, 2021

USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) projects the total value of U.S. agricultural exports to reach an all-time high in fiscal year (FY) 2022 (October–September). Higher shipments of major categories of commodities including grains and feeds, oilseeds and products, and livestock, poultry, and dairy products are primarily driving the increase in value. Total U.S. agricultural export values are projected to reach $177.5 billion in FY 2022, up from their previous high of $173.5 billion in FY 2021. Grains and feeds export values are projected up from their 5-year average, reflecting higher international demand for corn, wheat, and feeds. Oilseeds and products are projected to reach a record $43.5 billion in FY 2022. International demand for soybeans coupled with higher prices is projected to drive export values to a record high for FY 2021 before increasing further in FY 2022. Soybean meal exports also are projected to reach record value. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports, which have averaged $29.5 billion from 2015 to 2020, are forecast to rise to $36.8 billion in FY 2022. This projected increase is led by a rise in export value for all product groups except pork, with especially strong exports in beef and dairy. Higher prices and higher traded volumes for many commodities along with the reconciliation of trade disputes all contribute to the growth in export value. This chart is drawn from data in ERS’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, August 26, 2021, and reflects USDA’s new definition of “Agricultural Products,” which includes ethanol, distilled spirits, and manufactured tobacco products and excludes rubber and allied products.

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Widespread drought across the northern and western regions of the United States has dampened prospects for projected production and exports in the 2021/22 marketing year of three classes of U.S. wheat: hard red spring, white, and durum. Cultivation of hard red spring wheat, typically the second largest class of U.S. wheat, is concentrated in the Northern Plains, where about 99 percent of production is being grown in an area experiencing drought. Harvest of this class is projected to fall 42 percent from the previous year to the lowest level in more than 30 years, while exports are expected to contract to the lowest volume in more than a decade. U.S. durum production, which is also concentrated in the Northern Plains, is also projected to fall substantially in the 2021/22 marketing year to the lowest level in 60 years. With the United States generally a net importer of durum, larger imports from Canada are expected. Drought has also affected the Pacific Northwest region, where the majority of U.S. white wheat is produced, resulting in a 29 percent year-to-year decline in production of that class. With white wheat production at the lowest level on record dating back to the 1974/1975 marketing year, exports—mainly destined for markets in Asia—are projected down 41 percent from the prior marketing year. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Wheat Outlook, published in August 2021.