Farm sector profitability expected to weaken in 2014

U.S. net farm income—a measure of the sector’s profitability—is forecast to be $96.9 billion in 2014, down over 20 percent from 2013’s estimate. The 2014 forecast would be the seventh highest value since 1970 after adjusting for inflation. Higher production expenses are the main driver of the 2013-14 change in net farm income, as changes in crop and livestock receipts are offsetting. Crop receipts are expected to decrease by 12.3 percent in 2014, led by declines in corn and soybean receipts, while livestock receipts are forecast to increase by 14 percent, largely due to anticipated record prices for beef cattle and milk. Total production expenses are forecast to increase 5.7 percent in 2014 extending a 4-year upward trend in expenses. Net cash income is forecast at $108.2 billion, down over 19 percent from its 2013 estimate, and is projected to decline less than net farm income primarily because it includes the sale of carryover stocks from 2013. This chart is found in 2014 Farm Sector Income Forecast, updated November 25, 2014.