U.S. turkey production shows decline amid avian flu outbreak, increase in production values

USDA forecasts 2024 turkey production at 5.1 billion pounds, a decrease of 6 percent from 2023 and a 12-percent decrease from 2019. From 2019 to 2022, increasing wholesale prices drove up the value of production (a product of quantity and price). Production values peaked in 2022, when highly pathogenic avian influenza depleted turkey supplies, and the annual average wholesale price jumped by $0.32 per pound. These factors supported a 20-percent increase in the value of production in 2022. In 2023, production increased nearly 5 percent, the wholesale price dropped, and the total value of production fell about 8 percent from 2022. In 2024, the projected average wholesale price for whole frozen hens in 2024 is $0.94 per pound, a decrease of $0.46 cents from 2023. Market indicators suggest that consumer demand for turkey has declined, with per capita consumption of turkey meat falling a projected 13 percent between 2019 and 2024. This chart draws from Turkey Sector: Background & Statistics, published by USDA’s Economic Research Service.

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