Rising per capita consumption drives food demand growth rates in all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa

Global food demand is projected to increase 2.8 percent annually over the next 10 years, according to the latest International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). The region with the highest projected growth in demand is Sub-Saharan Africa at 3.9 percent per year. In comparison, the Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to have the slowest food demand growth of IFSA regions at 1.8 percent per year. Using food price, income, and population projections, IFSA estimates food demand in 83 low- and middle-income countries. In those 83 countries, demand is projected to grow from 800.2 million metric tons in 2024 to 1,050.9 million metric tons in 2034. Growth in food demand can be caused by two factors—increasing per capita food consumption and population growth. In all regions except for Sub-Saharan Africa, growth in total food demand is driven mainly by per capita food consumption rather than population growth. For the Former Soviet Union region, 95 percent of the overall food demand growth in the next 10 years is attributable to growth in per capita food consumption based on projections for significant growth in per capita income. In addition to annual food demand growth in Sub-Saharan Africa rising the fastest over the next 10 years, 66 percent of the growth rate in food demand in the region is due to population growth. With per capita incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to only rise 1.5 percent annually by 2034, the region’s share of the food-insecure population is projected to increase. This chart appears in the ERS report, International Food Security Assessment, 2024-34, released August 2024. See also this related Chart of Note, Despite global improvements in food insecurity, progress for Sub-Saharan Africa lags.

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