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International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2005

  • by Maurice Landes, Paul Westcott and John Wainio
  • 5/1/1997
  • AER-750

Overview

This report provides baseline projections for international supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural commodities to 2005. It is a companion report to Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2005, Reflecting the 1996 Farm Act (WAOB-97-1), providing the foreign country detail supporting those projections. Projections of strong global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, combined with more open foreign markets and the emergence of China as a major bulk commodity importer, support strong projected gains in U.S. farm exports. The value of total U.S. agricultural exports is projected to rise from a record $59.8 billion in FY 1996 to nearly $80 billion in 2005. The projections are a conditional scenario, assuming the continuation of 1996 U.S. farm legislation through 2005, no shocks, average weather, and specific macroeconomic and foreign country policy assumptions. The projections were completed based on information available as of January 1997, and reflect a composite of model results and analyst judgment.

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