Wheat Outlook No. (WHS-21c-01) 47 pp

April 2021

Merits of an Aggregate Futures Price Forecasting Model for the All Wheat U.S. Season-Average Farm Price

This report presents an alternative, aggregate futures-based forecasting model that utilizes the three available wheat futures contract prices, which represent the majority of U.S. wheat production. Results show that this model tends to provide forecasts with a lower mean absolute percent error and a more accurate prediction of positive directional movement.

Keywords: Hard red winter wheat, soft red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, all wheat season-average farm price (SAFP) forecasts, HRW-only futures-adjusted forecast model, aggregate wheat futures-adjusted forecast model, futures prices, basis, marketing weights

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