ERS Charts of Note
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Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Of the 911 million acres of land in farms in the continental U.S., 61 percent is operated by the land owner, according to the 2014 Tenure Ownership and Transition of Agricultural Land (TOTAL) survey. Another 8 percent (70 million acres) of land in farms is rented from other farm operators. The remaining land in farms (31 percent or 283 million acres) is rented from “non-operating landlords”, or landlord entities that are not currently farmer operators. The majority of acres owned by these non-operating landlords is held by individuals or in partnerships (191 million acres or 21 percent of land in farms). Corporations, trusts, or other ownership arrangements also rent out 92 million acres (about 10 percent of land in farms) to operators. Even though some agricultural land is owned by non-operating landlords, many of these landlords have prior farming experience. Of the 191 million acres owned in non-operator individual or partnership arrangements, nearly half were held by a retired farmer or rancher in 2014. About 6 percent of the acres owned in individual and partnership arrangements by non-operating landlord entities had a principal landlord that reported spending greater than 50 percent of their work time in farm or ranch work, but not as a farm operator. More information can be found on the ERS Farmland Ownership and Tenure topic page.
Friday, August 28, 2015
With a value of $2.38 trillion, farm real estate (land and structures) accounted for 81 percent of the total value of U.S. farm sector assets in 2014. Because it comprises such a significant portion of the U.S. farm sector’s asset base, change in the value of farm real estate is a critical barometer of the farm sector's financial performance. On average, U.S. (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) farm real estate values increased 2.4 percent (in nominal terms) to $3,020 per acre over the 12 months ending June 1, 2015. Growth in average values has slowed substantially relative to the previous three year mid-year to mid-year periods, when nominal farm real estate values increased over 8 percent annually. National averages mask wide regional variation. Based on nominal values, farm real estate in the Southern Plains and Pacific regions experienced the highest rates of appreciation of 6.1 percent and 5.8 percent (to $1,900 and $4,780 per acre), respectively, over the 12 months ending June 1, 2015. In contrast, farm real estate in the Corn Belt declined 0.3 percent (to $6,350 per acre). This chart is found on the ERS topic page on Land Use, Land Value & Tenure, updated August 2015.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decline for the second consecutive year, after reaching recent historic highs in 2013. NFI is expected to fall nearly $33 billion (36 percent) from 2014’s estimate to $58.3 billion in 2015. The 2015 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, and $29.1 billion (in real terms) below the 10-year average. Crop receipts are expected to decrease by $12.9 billion from 2014, led by a projected $7.1 billion decline in corn receipts and a $3.4 billion decline in soybean receipts. Livestock receipts are also expected to decline, with the largest decreases expected for hog and dairy receipts. Total production expenses are forecast to fall by $1.5 billion in 2015, the first decline since 2009. Government payments are projected to rise 16 percent ($1.6 billion) to $11.4 billion in 2015. This chart is based on information found in the 2015 Farm Sector Income Forecast, updated August 25, 2015.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Since USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey began collecting data in 1996, the median income of farm households has risen while real U.S. median household income has remained essentially flat. This may be due to a variety of factors, including farm consolidation, increasing commodity prices, and minimal increases in hourly wages for all U.S. workers. In 2013, the median household income of farm households was about $72,000, compared with $52,000 for all U.S. households. Farm households benefitted from high commodity prices in 2012 and 2013; however, many farm households experience considerable variability in their income from year-to-year compared with their non-farm counterparts. The share of farm household income from farming (shown in the green bars) varies, accounting for as little as 5 percent in the early 2000s and reaching a high of 24 percent in 2013. The importance of farm income to households also varies with the size of the operation. Households with smaller and intermediate size farms typically receive the majority of their income from off-farm sources, while large (commercial) farm households derive the bulk of total household income from their farm activities. The most recent ERS farm sector income forecast shows farm sector income for 2014 and 2015 returning to pre-2012 levels. Households operating large farms are the most vulnerable to decreases in farm income. This chart is based on data found in Farm Household Income and Characteristics and information found in the Farm Household Well-being topic page.
Friday, July 10, 2015
Profitability—measured here by the rate of return on assets (RRA)—is strongly associated with farm size. Seventy-nine to 86 percent of retirement, off-farm occupation, and low-sales farms are in the "red zone" (farms with an RRA of less than 1 percent), indicating a very low return to farming. The share of farms in the red zone drops rapidly for the remaining family farm types, those with moderate sales and higher. Likewise, the share of farms in the green zone—with a RRA greater than 5 percent—increases with farm size. Larger farms can often use their resources more productively than smaller farms, generating more dollars of sales per unit of capital. Given the high share of small farms in the red zone, many operators stay in business by undervaluing their labor, effectively ignoring the value of the unpaid labor they provide. Such small-farm households typically receive substantial off-farm income and do not rely primarily on their farms for their livelihood, often using off-farm income to cover farm expenses and make investments in their farm operations. This chart is found on the ERS topic page, Farm Structure and Organization, updated July 2015.
Friday, June 19, 2015
The variation in the percent of total expenses represented by individual expenses across different types of farms reflects how specialized U.S. agriculture has become. While wide differences generally exist between crop and livestock farms, USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) allows a breakdown of expense shares within the major farm types. Livestock purchases are the largest component of total expenses for beef cattle farms, primarily because of the relatively high cost of feeder steers. Because of the lower cost of their animal purchases, feed expenses are the largest component of total expenses for other animal farms (primarily hog, poultry, and dairy). Specialty crop farms (fruit/nuts, vegetables, and nursery/greenhouse) have a higher share of labor expenses than field crop farms, because they occupy fewer acres and are less mechanized. In contrast, field crop farms, especially corn farms, have higher shares of expenses going to principal crop-related expenses (fertilizer, seeds, and chemicals), and rent. Fuel expenses are relatively consistent, varying between 3 percent of total expenses for other animal farms to 8 percent for other field crop farms. This chart is based on results from USDA’s ARMS Farm Financial and Crop Production Practices data.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
Since 1916, the Federal estate tax has been applied to the transfer of property at death. Under present law, the estate of a decedent, who at death owned assets in excess of the estate tax exemption amount ($5.43 million in 2015), must file a Federal estate tax return; those estates are subject to a 40 percent tax rate on the nonexempt amount. Based on simulations using farm-level survey data from the 2013 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), for the 2014 tax year an estimated 2.7 percent of farm estates would be required to file an estate tax return, with a much smaller share of estates (about 0.8 percent) owing any Federal estate tax. On average, a farm estate that owed Federal estate tax had net worth of $11.1 million and a tax liability of $1.68 million, paying an average tax rate of 15 percent. Estates of small family farms (those with gross cash farm income (GCFI) below $350,000) faced the lowest average effective tax rate, while estates of large-scale family farms (those with GCFI of $1 million or more) were taxed at an average effective rate of 18 percent. This chart is found on the ERS topic page on Federal Estate Taxes, updated May 2015.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
U.S. farm households generally receive income from both farm and off-farm activities, and for many, off-farm income largely determines the household’s income tax liability. Since 1980, farm sole proprietors, in aggregate, have reported negative net farm income for tax purposes. Over the 1998-2008 period, both the share of farm sole proprietors reporting losses and the amount of losses reported generally increased, due in part to deduction allowances for capital expenses. Since 2007, strong commodity prices have bolstered farm sector profits and the net losses from farming have declined. In 2012, the latest year for which complete data are available, U.S. Internal Revenue Service data showed that nearly 70 percent of farm sole proprietors reported a farm loss, totaling almost $24 billion. The remaining farms reported profits totaling $18.2 billion. This chart updates the chart found in the February 2013 Amber Waves feature, “Federal Income Tax Reform and the Potential Effects on Farm Households.”
Thursday, April 2, 2015
After historically high average net cash farm income (NCFI) in 2012 and 2013, average NCFI is expected to decline 22.7 percent in 2014F-15F for U.S. farm businesses (defined as farms with annual gross cash farm income greater than $350,000, or smaller operations where the operator’s primary occupation is farming), the lowest level since 2010-11 While declines are expected in all ERS resource regions, performance is expected to vary considerably, primarily driven by the regional commodity production specializations. The forecast sharp drop in dairy receipts contributes to an expected 34-percent decline in average NCFI in the Northern Crescent. The forecast decline in NCFI for the Fruitful Rim is driven by the expected drop in NCFI for specialty crop farms. Farm businesses’ average NCFI in the Basin and Range is forecast to decline due to declining receipts for sorghum and wheat. Expected declines in poultry and hog receipts drive lower projected average NCFI in the Eastern Uplands, while increasing livestock costs and decreasing crop receipts contribute to the decline in the Southern Seaboard. This map is found in the ERS topic page on Farm Business Income and the data are available in the February 2015 release of Farm Income and Wealth Statistics.
Monday, March 16, 2015
The Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) was initially authorized by the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 to reimburse eligible farmers and ranchers for grazing losses due to a qualifying drought or fire through September 30, 2011 (the end of the period covered by the 2008 Act). The 2014 Farm Act made LFP a permanent program, and included payments retroactive to October 1, 2011. ERS’s farm income forecast for 2014 includes $4.4 billion in expected LFP payments, incorporated in the direct government payments category “ad hoc and disaster assistance payments.” The 2014 forecast is an over 700-percent increase over the sum of LFP payments made during the previous 5 years. This large spike—generally regarded as a one-time event—reflects large retroactive payments for 2012 and 2013, which account for 84.2 percent of the 2014 expected payout. The 2014 Farm Act included a number of changes that could raise future LFP payments, although not to 2014’s extraordinary level. This chart is found in the Amber Waves finding, “Livestock Forage Disaster Program Payments Increase in 2014.”
Monday, March 2, 2015
The rate of growth in U.S. farm sector assets and equity (assets minus debt) is forecast to moderate in 2015 compared with recent years, and to decline for the first time since 2009 after adjusting for inflation. Lower projected farm asset growth is primarily driven by decreases in financial assets and a small drop in farm real estate value. These declines reflect lower forecast net cash income for 2014-15, along with expectations of slightly higher interest rates. Farm sector debt is expected to increase in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms in 2015. Debt is led higher by an increase in nonreal estate borrowing because lower cash income is expected to reduce cash available to cover operating expenses. As a result, the debt-to-asset ratio is expected to increase from 10.6 to 10.9 in 2015, marking the first increase since 2009. Dig deeper into the U.S. farm balance sheet with the data visualization released on February 10, 2015.
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
U.S. net farm income—a measure of the sector’s profitability—is forecast to be $73.6 billion in 2015, down nearly 32 percent from 2014’s forecast of $108 billion. The 2015 forecast would be the lowest since 2009 and a drop of nearly 43 percent from the record high of $129 billion in 2013. Lower crop receipts (-$15.6 billion) and livestock receipts (-$10.1 billion) are the main drivers of the change, as production expenses are projected up less than 1 percent ($2.5 billion) and government payments are forecast to increase about 15 percent ($1.6 billion) in 2015. Net cash income is forecast at $89.4 billion, down about 22 percent from the 2014 forecast. Net cash income is projected to decline less than net farm income primarily because it reflects the sale of carryover stocks from 2014. This chart is found in 2015 Farm Sector Income Forecast, released February 10, 2015.
Friday, January 16, 2015
Net farm income is forecast to be $97.3 billion in 2014, down nearly $32 billion (25 percent) from 2013’s estimate. The 2014 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, but still $12.3 billion above the previous 10-year average. Crop receipts are expected to decrease by $25.1 billion, led by a projected $10.9-billion decline in corn receipts and a $9.5-billion decline in oil crop receipts, largely due to weak prices. Livestock value of production is expected to have strong gains, with increases across almost all livestock categories and the largest gains expected in cattle/calves and milk. Total production expenses are forecast to increase $18 billion in 2014, extending the upward movement in expenses for a fifth straight year. The elimination of direct payments under the Agricultural Act of 2014 resulted in a projected 4-percent decline in government payments due to offsetting supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments related to drought. For additional analysis, see the 2014 Farm Sector Income Forecast, updated December 12, 2014.
Friday, December 19, 2014
In large part, the regional distribution of beginning farms mirrors that of all farms, but there are some differences. Beginning farms are located all across the country, but overall, the South is home to the largest percentage of beginning farms: 47 percent, which is about 5 percent higher than its share of all farms. The South also has the largest percentage of small beginning farms. Large-scale beginning farms are most likely to be in the Midwest, but with 30 percent of the nation’s beginning farms, the Midwest has fewer than its 37 percent share of all farms. The concentration of cash grain farms in the Midwest, which on average are larger than farms specializing in other types of commodities, not only explains the region’s higher shares of mid-size and large scale beginning farms, but may also explain the fact that fewer of its farms are operated by beginning farmers. This chart is found in the ERS topic page on Beginning & Disadvantaged Farmers, updated October 2014.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
In 2013, only about one-quarter of total farm household income came from farming. Because of the broad USDA definition of a farm (which includes places with the potential for as little as $1,000 in annual sales), more than half of farm operator households consistently incur a net loss from farming activities in any given year, and far more do not earn the equivalent of a market wage for their on-farm labor. As a result, most farm operator households rely heavily on off-farm income. Of the total off-farm income earned by all farm operator households, the majority comes from wages and salaries earned by household members through nonfarm jobs, followed by income transfers (e.g., Social Security) and profits from nonfarm businesses owned by farm household members. As a group, U.S. farm operator households earn their income from a wide range of activities, reflecting the diverse set of skills, knowledge, and economic goals held by farm operators and their families. This chart is found in the ERS topic page, Farm Household Well-Being, updated November 2014.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
U.S. net farm income—a measure of the sector’s profitability—is forecast to be $96.9 billion in 2014, down over 20 percent from 2013’s estimate. The 2014 forecast would be the seventh highest value since 1970 after adjusting for inflation. Higher production expenses are the main driver of the 2013-14 change in net farm income, as changes in crop and livestock receipts are offsetting. Crop receipts are expected to decrease by 12.3 percent in 2014, led by declines in corn and soybean receipts, while livestock receipts are forecast to increase by 14 percent, largely due to anticipated record prices for beef cattle and milk. Total production expenses are forecast to increase 5.7 percent in 2014 extending a 4-year upward trend in expenses. Net cash income is forecast at $108.2 billion, down over 19 percent from its 2013 estimate, and is projected to decline less than net farm income primarily because it includes the sale of carryover stocks from 2013. This chart is found in 2014 Farm Sector Income Forecast, updated November 25, 2014.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Crop receipts are expected to decline 7 percent in 2014, the second annual decrease following a record high in 2012. Even with record corn production projected, cash receipts for corn are expected to decline by over 20 percent due to a significant decrease (-32 percent) in the annual average corn price. Declines in receipts are also expected for most other major crops including fruits and nuts, wheat, soybeans, and vegetables/melons. A notable exception is cotton, which is projected to recover from a significant decline in 2013. Conversely, record livestock prices are projected to drive a 15.3-percent increase in livestock cash receipts. Despite expected declines in beef production, cattle/calves receipts are expected to set a record in 2014 due to higher prices. Hog production is also expected to decline, but higher expected annual average prices drive the forecast increase in hog cash receipts. Wholesale milk and broiler receipts are expected to benefit from higher production and record annual average prices. See the Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product for more information on USDA’s 2014 forecast for the farm economy, released on August 26, 2014.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Median total farm household income is forecast to decline slightly in 2014 to $70,992, down from $71,504 forecast for 2013. Given the broad USDA definition of a farm and the large number of relatively small farms, most farm households earn all of their income from off-farm sources. In 2014, median off-farm income is projected to increase by 3.7 percent to $64,840. On the other hand, many farms are not profitable businesses even in the best farm income years; as a result, median income from farming is negative when calculated for all farm households. Sector-wide farm income is expected to dip in 2014, and median farm household income from farming is expected to decline to -$1,626. (Note: Because they are based on unique distributions, median total income will generally not equal the sum of median off-farm and median farm income.) This chart is found in the ERS topics page, Farm Household Well-being, updated August 26, 2014.
Friday, September 5, 2014
The rate of growth in farm assets, debt, and equity is forecast to moderate in 2014, the result of an expected decline in net farm income, higher borrowing costs, and moderation in the growth of farmland values. The value of farm assets is expected to rise 2.3 percent in 2014, while farm sector debt is expected to increase 2.7 percent. Even with the expected slowdown in asset growth, the sector’s financial position remains strong due to the historically low level of debt relative to assets and equity. The sector continues to be well-insulated from the risks associated with commodity production (such as adverse weather), changing macroeconomic conditions in the United States and abroad, as well as fluctuations in farm asset values that may occur due to changing demand for agricultural assets. This chart is found in the topic page for Farm Sector Income & Finances, and the underlying data are available in Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, updated August 26, 2014.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Net farm income is forecast at $113.2 billion in 2014, down about 14 percent from the 2013 forecast of $131.3 billion. If realized, the 2014 forecast would be the fourth-highest value since 1970 after adjusting for inflation. Lower cash receipts for crops, and to a lesser degree, higher production expenses and reduced government farm payments, drive the expected drop in net farm income. Net cash income is forecast at $123 billion, down almost 6 percent from the 2013 forecast. Net cash income is projected to decline less than net farm income primarily because it reflects the sale of more than $10 billion in carryover stocks from 2013. Despite expected record-setting harvests, crop receipts are expected to decrease more than 7 percent in 2014 due to lower prices. Livestock receipts are forecast to increase by more than 15 percent in 2014, largely due to higher prices. This chart is found in the topic page on the 2014 Farm Sector Income Forecast on the ERS website, updated August 26, 2014.