ERS Charts of Note

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Avocado imports play a significant role in meeting growing U.S. demand

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Per capita use of avocados tripled since the beginning of the 2000s and now totals over 7 pounds per person annually in the United States. In the 2015/16 marketing year, total domestic availability reached a record high of 2.3 billion pounds. In addition to the country’s large and growing Hispanic population (who regard avocados as a staple), the rise of the fruit’s availability reflects its growing popularity for use in foods like guacamole and in various sandwiches. Increasing consumer awareness of the benefits of “healthy fats,” like the mono-unsaturated fats found in avocados, has also played a role in its growth. Domestically, avocados are grown in Florida (on average, over 16 percent of total), California (over 80 percent), and Hawaii (less than 1 percent), and net production has not kept up with consumer demand. Nearly all of the growth in per capita consumption since the mid-2000s has been satisfied by rising imports, particularly from Mexico which comprised a vast majority of total import volume. Chile once supplied a majority of U.S. avocado imports but was outranked by Mexico beginning in 2005. Phytosanitary reasons prevented entry of Mexican avocados into the United States for many years, but since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the country’s limited access to the U.S. market has slowly expanded. Now, imports from Mexico are allowed in all 50 States on a year-round basis. This chart appears in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook report released in April 2017.

U.S. fresh blueberry demand continues to rise

Monday, April 17, 2017

Per capita use of blueberries nearly tripled since 2006, largely attributable to growing demand based on the potential health benefits of berries in the diet. In recent years, farmers have expanded production to help meet this demand. As a result, net domestic production doubled and imports increased by almost four times. In addition to increased demand, consumer preferences for year-round availability of popular fresh fruits and vegetables necessitates a greater reliance on imported goods. Domestic blueberry production primarily occurs in the spring and summer seasons. In the fall and winter, southern hemisphere countries like Chile are in their growing season and supply the United States with a significant share of its blueberry imports. In 2016, net domestic production fell slightly, while imports increased. This resulted from lower than expected production in States that normally supply the fresh market like, Georgia, Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, and California. This chart appears in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook report released in April 2017.

Retail orange juice prices dropped swiftly to close out 2016

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Average retail prices for orange juice were above long-term averages for 2015 and most of 2016, but a surprising drop in October brought prices back in line with years prior. Retail prices increased because of declining domestic production, which has been below long-term averages since 2013. The United States also imports a large amount of orange juice with the majority coming from Brazil. Forecasts for Brazilian orange juice production are 30 percent higher for the 2016/17 marketing year compared to the prior year, and will likely lead to more robust exports from the country. October 2016 imports were more than double the previous year and likely signaled to retailers an increase in supply for the upcoming year. This chart is drawn from data reported in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nut dataset updated in January 2017.

Steady increases in at-home consumption of berries resulted in a rising share of U.S. berry consumption occurring at home

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Flavor, healthfulness, convenience, and year-round availability have contributed to increasing consumer demand for strawberries, blueberries, raspberries, and other berries, with per capita loss-adjusted availability growing from an average of 4.5 pounds per person per year during 1994-98 to 6.6 pounds during 2007-08 and to 9.9 pounds in 2014. Linking ERS’s loss-adjusted food availability data with food intake surveys from 1994-2008 reveals that berries, like other fruit, are mainly consumed at home rather than away from home at eating out places. The increase in berry consumption comes exclusively from purchases at grocery stores (the food-at-home market). The at-home share of berry consumption rose from 83 percent during 1994-98 to 89-91 percent during 2003-08. The loss-adjusted availability of berries consumed at home rose from 3.7 pounds per person per year during 1994-98 to 5.9 pounds during 2007-08, while away-from-home consumption stayed just shy of 0.8 pounds per person. This chart appears in the ERS report U.S. Food Commodity Availability by Food Source, 1994-2008, December 2016.

Apples/applesauce and pineapples accounted for 56 percent of canned fruit availability in 2010-14

Thursday, January 19, 2017

According to ERS’s food availability data, 14.2 pounds per capita of canned fruit were available for consumption by U.S. consumers in 2010-14, down after averaging 21 pounds per person in 1990-94 and 25.1 pounds per person in 1970-74. Canned apple and applesauce availability was 4.1 pounds per person in 2010-14, while canned pineapple availability—the second highest—was 3.9 pounds per person. With the exception of olives, per person availability fell for all canned fruit between 1970-74 and 2010-14. For example, in 1970-74 canned peaches led canned fruit availability at 6.5 pounds per person, but dropped to 2.7 pounds per person in 2010-14—a 58-percent decline. The availability of canned pears fell from 3.8 pounds per person in 1970-74 to 2 pounds per person in 2010-14. One reason for declines in canned fruit availability is that some consumers switched to fresh fruit. Canned fruit’s share of total U.S. fruit availability decreased from 10.6 percent in 1970-74 to 5.6 percent in 2010-14, while fresh fruit availability grew by 34.5 pounds per person and boosted fresh fruit’s share from 41 percent to 52 percent. The data for this chart are from ERS’s Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.

Chinese imports of fruit continue to rise as U.S. competes for market share

Thursday, October 20, 2016

The rise in Chinese living standards has spurred demand for a more diverse and nutritious diet, leading to a surge in China’s fruit imports. Fruit is a discretionary item consumed as a dessert, given as gifts, and distributed at meetings and banquets. With greater disposable income, demand for fruit (particularly fresh fruit) has grown rapidly. In the most recent 8 years, import volume grew more than three times to 3.8 million metric tons in 2015. The United States was a pioneer in opening China’s fruit market during the 1990s, but China’s recent surge of imports came mainly from tropical and Southern Hemisphere countries. The United States remains the predominant Northern-Hemisphere supplier, reflecting quality, extended seasonal availability, and other competitive attributes—but its share of total Chinese fruit imports declined for most of the new millennium. In 2015, there was a small uptick in the U.S. share moving from 2.6 percent to 3.5 percent, but far below the peak share of 11.5 percent in 2001. This chart appears in the ERS U.S. Fruit Competes for China Market Share special article published in September 2016.

California almond production forecast to reach record levels

Monday, October 17, 2016

Almond production in California is projected to reach a record high 2.05 billion pounds in the 2016/17 crop year. This would be an 8 percent increase from a year earlier and slightly higher than the previous record of 2.03 billion pounds in 2011/12. While many areas are still under drought, trees have shown signs of recovery from multiple years of water deprivation. The increase in production may put negative pressure on prices received by growers. After a strong year of production, for example, grower prices fell from $4.00 per pound in 2014/15 to $2.84 per pound in 2015/16. This resulted in a steep decline in production value for the year, falling from a record high of $7.39 billion dollars in 2014/15 to $5.33 billion dollars in 2015/16. Even with the sharp drop in value, this remained the third-highest crop value on record. With prices high relative to long-term averages, almond producers still have an incentive to increase production. This chart appears in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report in September 2016.

Non-Hispanic Blacks were the only racial/ethnic group to increase whole fruit and total fruit consumption between 1994-98 and 2007-08

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

A recent linking of ERS’s loss-adjusted food availability data with food intake surveys from 1994-2008 revealed that Non-Hispanic Blacks were the only group of the racial/ethnic groups examined that had higher whole fruit and total fruit consumption in 2007-08 compared with 1994-98. The 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend that at least half of a person’s recommended fruit consumption be whole fruit. Non-Hispanic Blacks increased their whole fruit consumption to 71.4 pounds per person in 2007-08—an amount still below that of Hispanics and the "other" racial/ethnic group. All four racial/ethnic groups consumed smaller quantities of orange juice and larger quantities of apple juice in 2007-08. Non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics had the largest increases in apple juice consumption. This chart appears in“A Closer Look at Declining Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Using Linked Data Sources” in the July 2016 issue of ERS’s Amber Waves magazine.

Imports supply about a third of U.S. watermelon consumption

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

The majority of watermelons consumed in the United States are produced domestically, but imports have grown rapidly in recent years. Watermelon acreage in the United States has declined by about 50 percent since the early 1990’s, but increases in productivity from a greater use of irrigation and improved varieties helped keep annual production levels above 3.5 billion pounds through most of the past 20 years. Watermelons can be grown in most parts of the United States but do best in the South due to long growing season and consistently warm temperatures. Florida, Texas, California, Georgia, and South Carolina account for over 70 percent of U.S. production. While domestic production has trended lower over the past five years, the U.S. appetite for watermelons has not. From 2010-15, watermelon domestic use has grown to an average 4.9 billion pounds annually, aided in part by four consecutive years of record-high imports, reaching 1.5 billion pounds in 2015. Watermelon imports continue to grow, and accounted for a third of domestic use in 2015, up from 11 percent in 2000 and 7 percent in 1990. Most watermelons imported to the United States come from Mexico, followed by Guatemala and Honduras. This chart is based on data found in the ERS’s report Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2016.

U.S. orange juice production continues to decline

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

U.S. orange juice production peaked during the 1997/98 season at 1,555 million gallons (single-strength equivalent; sse), but has trended lower since then to only 533 million sse gallons expected for the 2015/16 season. The production decline reflects many factors, including the increased prevalence of diseases such as citrus canker and citrus greening, as well as pressures from urbanization in parts of Florida that have reduced the area devoted to citrus production. The United States has been a net importer of orange juice for the entire period of analysis (1986/87 to 2015/16). Exports of orange juice have remained fairly constant over time, whereas imports have increased in recent years, but not by enough to compensate for the decline in U.S. production. As a result, orange juice availability per capita (a proxy for consumption) has trended lower as well, falling from a peak of 6.27 gallons in the 1997/98 season to a forecast low of 2.74 gallons in 2015/16. The decline in orange juice consumption over the past decade is consistent with trends that have also been observed for other types of fruit juice and caloric soft drinks in the United States. This chart is based on data found in ERS’s June 2016 Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report.

Growth in U.S. fresh apple exports reflects changes in supply and demand

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Most apples produced in the United States are consumed in the domestic market, but exports have been growing steadily over the past few decades. Export volume rose from an average of 607 million pounds in the 1980s to a record 2.3 billion pounds in the 2014/15 marketing year (August-July), and the export share of production climbed from 14 percent to more than 28 percent over the same period. The growth in exports reflects changes in both supply and demand. Domestic demand for apples faces growing competition from counter-seasonal imports of fruits such as grapes, berries, and stone fruits, which are increasingly available in the winter months when fresh apples were once one of the few types of fruit readily available to most consumers. On the supply side, production continues to grow faster than domestic demand, and producers have focused on many new varieties such as Fuji and Gala that are popular in key export markets. Today, Mexico, Canada, and India account for more than half of U.S. fresh-apple exports, with Mexico alone receiving more than 25 percent of the total U.S. export volume. This chart is from the July 2016 Amber Waves article, “A Bigger Piece of the Pie: Exports Rising in Share of U.S. Apple Production.”

U.S. production of fresh-market sweet cherries expected to be down this year

Friday, July 22, 2016

Warm weather prompted an early start to the harvest season for sweet cherries in the northwestern United States. Despite the early harvest, U.S. production is expected to be down 6 percent from last year and 11 percent below the 5-average, mostly reflecting smaller crops in the two largest producing states, Washington and California. In California, heavy rains in May reduced the quality and size of the crop, while in Washington a shortened bloom period limited pollination and untimely rains prior to harvest undermined the size of the crop. About 90 percent of sweet cherry production is sold in the fresh market, and most of the crop is consumed domestically. Between one-quarter and one-third of U.S. production is exported, and major markets include Canada, South Korea and Japan. The United States imports sweet cherries during the off-season (when domestic supplies are unavailable), but imports tend to account for less than 10 percent of domestic availability. Chile is the primary source for sweet cherry imports, with smaller volumes also supplied by Argentina, Australia and New Zealand. This chart is from the Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report, released June 30, 2016.

Avocado imports grow to meet increasing U.S. demand

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

U.S. consumption of avocados has doubled in the past 10 years and is now nearly four times higher than in the mid-1990s. All of the growth in per-capita availability is from imports: U.S. net production (production minus imports) accounted for more than 80 percent of domestic sales during the 1990s, but has averaged less than 20 percent over the past 4 years. California accounts for more than 85 percent of U.S. avocado production. U.S. avocado imports come primarily from Mexico, and the United States is its largest market, accounting for more than 75 percent of Mexico’s annual export volume. Increased planted acreage in and outside Michoacan, Mexico’s major avocado-producing State, suggests production will continue to expand in the coming years as the country attempts to meet the growing demand for avocados in the U.S. market and globally. This chart is from the March 2016 Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report.

U.S. consumption of fresh blueberries is growing

Monday, April 18, 2016

Demand for fresh blueberries in the United States has shown strong growth over the past decade, with consumption per capita more than tripling since 2005, to exceed 1.5 pounds per person. This demand has been met with supplies from both domestic and imported sources, with net U.S. production (production minus export) up by 223 percent and imports up by nearly 370 percent since the average from 2003 to 2005. Most blueberry imports are off-season supplies from the Southern Hemisphere that do not compete directly with U.S. production. Imports from Chile typically start in the fall and peak during January and February. Imports from Argentina, Uruguay and Peru follow a similar pattern but with much smaller volumes. Domestic supplies from Florida typically begin to come onto the market in March, with production moving northward and peaking during the summer months. Imports from Canada coincide with the summer U.S. harvest. This year, cold weather is delaying the harvest in both Florida and Georgia, causing tight early-season supplies. This chart is from the March 2016 Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report.

Peanut and tree nut consumption rises with income

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

A recent linking of ERS’s loss-adjusted food availability data with intake surveys from 1994-2008 reveals that consumers with incomes above 185 percent of the Federal poverty ($21,200 for a family of four in 2008) consistently consumed greater quantities of nuts than consumers with lower incomes, and the gap was higher in more recent years. Nut allergies and consumers’ perceptions about the cost of peanuts and tree nuts may play a role in consumption patterns. In 2007-08, higher income Americans ate 6.7 pounds of peanuts per person per year and 3.7 pounds of tree nuts, compared with the 4.5 pounds of peanuts and 1.4 pounds of tree nuts consumed by lower income consumers. Children consumed more peanuts per person than adults during 1994-98, but since then, adults have consumed more peanuts than children. Adults ate more tree nuts than children did in all survey years, and non-Hispanic Whites consumed more peanuts and tree nuts than non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics. This chart and similar information on 60 other food commodities can be found in the ERS report, U.S. Food Commodity Consumption Broken Down by Demographics, 1994-2008, released on March 30, 2016.

China dominates world apple production

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Apples are produced commercially in more than 90 countries worldwide, with annual combined global production of about 80 million metric tons. China is the world’s largest producer, accounting for nearly half of the global output and producing nearly 10 times the volume of the United States, which produces the world’s second largest apple crop. China’s large production volume is supported by the country’s vast production area. However, U.S. yields are nearly double the average achieved in China. Area expansion in China has slowed over the past decade but per-hectare yields have improved, aiding the country’s production to continue to climb. This chart is from the Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook, March 2016.

Over 80 percent of U.S. oranges available for domestic consumption are used in juice

Thursday, February 11, 2016

According to the ERS Food Availability data, 66.3 pounds of oranges per person were available for domestic consumption in 2013. Fresh oranges made up 16 percent of the available oranges (10.4 pounds per person), while 84 percent was in the form of juice (55.9 pounds per person, fresh-weight equivalent). Per capita availability of orange juice, which accounts for over half of U.S. fruit juice availability, has declined by 42 percent from its high of 97.1 pounds per person in 1977. In addition to a long-term decline in demand, reduced production has played a role in lower orange juice availability. Diseases, primarily citrus canker and citrus greening, continue to plague the citrus industry, especially in Florida, the main supplier of U.S.-grown oranges for juice. Eradication efforts have resulted in reduced U.S. citrus acreage and declining production since the late 1990s, and steady orange juice imports have not offset reduced U.S. production. The data for this chart come from the Food Availability data series in ERS's Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.

Georgia is the leading U.S. producer of pecans

Monday, December 21, 2015

Pecan trees, a species of hickory, are the source of the only commercially produced tree nut native to the United States. The United States is the world’s leading producer of pecans, and Georgia is historically the leading pecan-producing State, typically accounting for about 33 percent of U.S. production. In 2015, Georgia’s pecan crop is forecast at 100 million pounds (in-shell), an increase of 32 percent over the 2014/15 harvest. New Mexico has the second highest production, with the 2015 harvest expected to reach 72 million pounds (in-shell), accounting for 26 percent of the U.S. harvest. Texas rounds out the top three pecan-producing States, with 2015 production forecast at 37 million pounds. Texas producers have more acreage planted in native and seedling pecans as opposed to improved varieties and production in that State tends to be more variable year to year than in New Mexico or Georgia, as illustrated by the nearly 40-percent drop in 2015 production compared to the 2014 harvest of 61 million pounds. This chart is based on the September 2015 Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook.

Almost half of U.S. apples available for domestic consumption are used in juices

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Apples are a fall and winter staple, showing up in lunch boxes, pies, cobblers, crisps, and cider. Second to oranges as the most popular fruit in the United States, 45.8 pounds of apples per person were available for domestic consumption in 2013, according to ERS’s Food Availability data. Forty-seven percent of the available apples for U.S. domestic use (21.4 pounds per person) was in the form of juice and cider, and 38 percent (17.4 pounds per person) was fresh apples. Canned, frozen, dried, and other forms made up the remaining 15 percent of apple availability in 2013. Per-person apple availability peaked at 51.2 pounds in 2006. Much of the decrease since 2006 is due to declining availability of apple juice and cider. In 2006, 26.6 pounds of apples per person were used in juices and cider, while fresh-apple availability in 2006 was 17.9 pounds per person. The data for this chart come from the Food Availability data series in ERS's Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.

Not all California's crops have seen declines in acreage during drought

Monday, December 14, 2015

Long-term trends in California agriculture reflect shifting production, which may have implications for water use during droughts. Annually harvested crops such as cotton, corn, and wheat are on a downward trend and have seen a 31-percent reduction in planted acreage in California since 2012. Similarly, rice acreage has dropped 27 percent during the past 2 years (2013-15) of the drought. California’s hay and vegetable acreage has been more stable. In contrast, almonds, grapes, and walnuts acreage is on a strong upward trend that does not appear to have slowed during the drought. Orchards and vineyards require larger capital investments than annual crops, and because of the potential loss of that investment, orchard/vineyard owners are generally less willing to reduce water usage during droughts. However, orchards and vineyards are also more dependent upon ground-water than volatile surface-water supplies. California orchard/vineyard farmers are also more likely to have invested in more-efficient irrigation systems, such as low-pressure sprinkler and micro-irrigation systems that reduce water lost to evaporation, runoff, and deep percolation, thereby increasing the share of applied water that is beneficially used by the crop. This chart is found in the November 2015 Amber Waves statistic, “Long-Term Response to Water Scarcity in California.”