ERS Charts of Note
Thursday, January 13, 2022
The market phenomenon known as “countercyclical pricing”—when retail prices decrease in times of increased consumer demand—has been documented by economists in the prices of goods such as tuna during Lent or canned soup during winter. Recent analysis by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) provides another example of countercyclical pricing in fresh collard greens, a staple of Southern cuisine sometimes associated with good luck when eaten on the first day of the New Year. Popularity of the leafy green has risen since 2011, with annual availability increasing 43 percent from 0.88 pounds per capita to 1.26 pounds between 2011 and 2020. To observe consumer behavior, ERS researchers used retail scanner data consisting of billions of weekly U.S. retail food transactions captured from 2013 to 2018. They observed consistent annual surges in collard greens purchases during the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Day, accompanied by a smaller spike around Easter. They noted countercyclical pricing in all years of the available collard greens data, but the trend was most distinct in 2016. The volume of collard greens purchased that year exceeded the weekly average by 62 percent around Easter, 214 percent around Christmas, 274 percent around New Year’s Day, and 289 percent around Thanksgiving. However, collard greens prices fell below the weekly average by about 1 percent for Easter, 11 percent for Christmas, 20 percent for New Year’s, and 10 percent for Thanksgiving. This chart is drawn from ERS’ Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, November 2021.
Monday, December 6, 2021
U.S. fresh vegetable imports are higher than ever and help satisfy rising consumer demand for year-round produce, according to reports from USDA’s Economic Research Service. Imports rise during the winter months (January to March) when U.S. production reaches a seasonal lull, but shipments now increasingly overlap with traditional U.S. production seasons. Extension of imports into domestic production seasons, called “market creep,” affects the entire U.S. produce industry, supporting increased shipments from Mexico, Canada, and Central America. For example, winter imports of bell peppers from Mexico increased by 69 percent between the 2008–10 and 2018–20 time periods. Summer (July-September) is historically a prime marketing window for U.S.-grown bell peppers, yet U.S. imports of bell peppers from Mexico increased by 742 percent between the summers of 2008–10 and 2018–20. Liberalized trade agreements, comparatively lower foreign exchange rates, increased per capita consumption, and demand for wider variety of offerings have contributed to the rise in imports. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service Amber Waves feature, U.S. Fresh Vegetable Imports From Mexico and Canada Continue To Surge.
Monday, October 25, 2021
Pumpkins are a staple of fall traditions for many Americans who pick them, carve them into jack-o’-lanterns, or bake pumpkin desserts. Although pumpkins are grown in many States, most of the production comes from only 10 States. By acreage and by weight, Illinois is consistently the Nation’s largest pumpkin producer. However, unlike other States, most of Illinois’ pumpkins are used for pie filling and other processed foods, which receive a lower price per pound than ornamental jack-o’-lantern-style pumpkins. Production value of pumpkins in Illinois was ranked third in 2020 at $21.3 million. In 2020, Texas led the Nation in the value of pumpkins produced at $25.9 million, followed by Pennsylvania at $22.5 million, Illinois, and California at $20.7 million. Dry weather in Texas led to higher quality and lower yields, contributing to prices that exceeded those received by growers in any other State in 2020. Retail prices for pumpkins typically fluctuate week to week leading up to Halloween. In the second week of October 2021, the average retail price for jack-o’-lantern-style pumpkins was $4.09 per pumpkin, up 12 percent compared with the same week in 2020. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page, Pumpkins: Background & Statistics.
Friday, June 25, 2021
For over a decade, U.S. consumers have increased their demand for year-round availability of tomatoes, peppers, and cucumbers. The domestic produce industry initially responded by increasing protected-culture cultivation of these popular crops, usually through the use of greenhouses. Available data indicate the greenhouse area used to produce U.S. peppers rose 186 percent between 2009 and 2014, and greenhouse cucumber production area increased 83 percent. Subsequently, changes in the area devoted to protected-culture vegetable production have been mixed. For example, greenhouse area devoted to cucumber and pepper production in 2019 was down 42 and 30 percent, respectively, compared to the change between 2009 and 2014. In contrast, lettuce and tomato protected culture area was up 28 and 23 percent, respectively, over the same period. Between 2014 and 2019, imports of greenhouse-grown produce have increased significantly, a factor in the lackluster growth in cultivated area in the United States. Further, imported produce has increased U.S. supplies and pressured domestic prices downward, dampening incentives to expand U.S. greenhouse production. This chart appeared in the Economic Research Service’s April 2021 Vegetable and Pulses Outlook.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
To keep up with growing consumer demand for strawberries, U.S. fresh strawberry production has increased over the last two decades (from 2000-19). In the United States, fresh strawberries are primarily grown in California (roughly 90 percent annually) and Florida (about 8 percent), followed by New York, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington. With the development of newer varieties, strawberry season has expanded in both California and Florida. California produces strawberries year-round with peak harvest spanning from early spring until fall. California production has now increased from July to October with higher yielding varieties on decreased acreage, and shipments were 220 percent higher in 2019 than in 2000. Florida’s strawberry season typically begins in December and goes through March, but with the use of an early yielding variety, the Florida strawberry season now begins in November with relatively small volumes. Florida’s strawberry shipments more than doubled between 2000 and 2019. From all locations, strawberry supplies in the United States typically begin to rise in the spring, which is the perfect season to pick strawberries since National Pick Strawberries Day is on May 20. This information is from the special article Evolving Trends in the U.S. Fresh Strawberry Market in the Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Report: March 2021.
Friday, March 12, 2021
March 14 is known to many as Pi Day. When written as 3.14, the date resembles the mathematical constant, π, and for that reason, many celebrate the day’s circular reference by enjoying their favorite pie. In 2019, the United States grew $5.9 billion worth of seven of the fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts that tend to be popular for use as the main ingredient in pie making. The value of production of these seven commodities in 2019, as measured by U.S. cash receipts, was the highest for apples, which are produced abundantly in the United States both in terms of volume and production value. The U.S. apple crop reached a value of $2.75 billion in 2019, whereas production of blueberries reached $935 million. Cash receipts for other tasty fruit pie ingredients, cherries and peaches, were valued at $696 million and $519 million, respectively. As tree nuts, pecans are possibly one of America’s favorite non-fruit pie ingredients, and were valued at $471 million in terms of U.S. cash receipts. The pear crop of 2019 was valued at $315 million, while production of pumpkins, the ever-popular fall icon and mainstay of the holiday table, was valued at $180 million. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service’s Fruit and Tree Nuts and Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook Tables.
Monday, February 22, 2021
People in the United States are slowly expanding the variety of vegetables on their plates, data from the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) show. The vegetables food group is composed of five main subgroups: legumes, dark green, other vegetables, red and orange (including tomatoes), and starchy (including potatoes). Each offers an array of important vitamins, minerals, and dietary fiber. From 2000 to 2019, the combined share of dark green vegetables, red and orange vegetables (excluding tomatoes), and legumes available to eat in the United States increased from 16 percent to 22 percent. Increased availability of dark green vegetables over this period—led by a 47-percent jump in romaine and leaf lettuce—added additional variety for U.S. consumers. While the overall amount of vegetables available over the last two decades has decreased 4 percent, from 417.4 pounds per capita in 2000 to 400.1 pounds in 2019, there has been an increase in availability in recent years due in part to the expansion in varieties available for consumption. ERS’s Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System provides annual estimates of the per-capita availability for more than 200 food commodities consumed in the United States. This chart appears in the ERS Amber Waves article, “U.S. Supplies of Vegetables Available To Eat in 2019 Down Slightly From 2000, But Variety Has Grown,” February 2021.
Friday, January 22, 2021
Consumer interest in cauliflower has been re-emerging in recent years. Fresh cauliflower was popular in the early 20th century, with per capita availability peaking in 1946 at a record 3.6 pounds. Its popularity rose again in the late 1970s and 1980s before falling to 1.2 pounds per capita in 2012, then began to rise, reaching 3 pounds per person in 2019. This renewed interest in cauliflower is largely based on the widespread popularity of low-carb and gluten-free dietary trends. These trends have embraced the vegetable both in fresh form and as an ingredient in a variety of products, such as pizza crusts, pastas, tortillas, and crackers. Most fresh-market cauliflower available for domestic consumption is produced in California and Arizona. Together, the two States account for 93 percent of U.S. fresh cauliflower acreage. However, as consumption of cauliflower has risen, import penetration in the U.S. fresh cauliflower market also has soared. In 2019, imports accounted for nearly 23 percent of domestic fresh-market availability, up from 13 percent in 2014. Mexico is a year-round supplier and the source for about three-fourths of annual import volume, while Canada provides most of the remainder. This chart appears in the Economic Research Service’s December 2020 Vegetables and Pulses Outlook report.
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
If sweet potatoes are on your Thanksgiving menu this year, you are not alone. According to the Economic Research Service’s (ERS) food availability data, supplies of sweet potatoes available for U.S. consumers to eat averaged 7.2 pounds per capita per year in 2017-19, up from an average 3.9 pounds in 1997-99. Availability is calculated by adding domestic production, initial inventories, and imports, then subtracting exports and end-of-year inventories. These national supplies are then divided by the U.S. population to estimate per capita availability. Consumer interest in nutrition and food companies expanding their sweet potato-based offerings, such as sweet potato fries, may be contributors to the rise in sweet potato availability. Sweet potatoes are high in vitamin A and vitamin C. A cup of boiled sweet potatoes without the skin (and without any added fats or marshmallow toppings) contains 249 calories and 287 percent of the daily recommended amount of vitamin A, 47 percent of vitamin C, and 29 percent of dietary fiber for a 2,000 calories-per-day diet. This chart uses data from ERS’s Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.
Monday, November 23, 2020
Pumpkins are in high demand in America during the fall and winter holidays, whether to be used as decoration or as a key ingredient in various desserts. There are two broad categories of pumpkin to fit the two main uses: Halloween pumpkins (also known as ornamental pumpkins) and processing pumpkins (used for food). Illinois leads the country in pumpkin production overall, growing roughly three to four times more pumpkins than any other state, depending on the year. Much of this is driven by the state’s dominance of the processing pumpkin market. About three fourths of the processing pumpkins acres in the country are grown and canned in Illinois, where two major canning facilities are located. Almost 80 percent of Illinois’ pumpkin production is for processing pumpkins, with no other top state producing more than 5 percent of its share as processing pumpkins. Further information on pumpkins can be found on the Economic Research Service Trending Topics page on Pumpkins: Background & Statistics.
Monday, October 26, 2020
Pumpkins are one of the most famous symbols of fall. Many consumers enjoy traveling to local farms to pick out their own pumpkins from a patch, carving Halloween jack-o’-lanterns, or making pumpkin desserts. Production is widely dispersed throughout the United States, with all States producing some pumpkins. However, about 62 percent of pumpkin acres were cultivated in only ten States. By acreage and by weight, Illinois is consistently the Nation’s largest pumpkin producer. Unlike all other States, most of Illinois’ pumpkins are used for pie filling and other processed foods. The lower price associated with pumpkins destined for further processing explains why Illinois was second in the value of pumpkin production at $17.1 million in 2019. Pumpkins from the other States surveyed annually by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service were primarily intended for decorative (or carving) use. California leads the Nation in terms of value of production, at $22.8 million. Anecdotal reports from growers and agricultural extensions suggest strong pumpkin crops this year for Illinois and California. Retail prices for pumpkins typically fluctuate week to week leading up to Halloween. At the end of the third week of October 2020, the average retail price for jack-o’-lantern style pumpkins was $3.63 per pumpkin, the same price compared to the same week in 2019. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page, Pumpkins: Background & Statistics.
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
A little more than one-third of all potatoes grown in the United States are manufactured into frozen products, 85 percent of which are french fries. Spurred by decades of explosive growth within the quick service restaurant industry (QSRs), processed potato products, which include frozen, chipped, dehydrated, and canned, became the major movers in the potato market, led by frozen french fries. The share of potatoes consumed as frozen products rose from 27 percent in 1970-74 to 44 percent in 2015-19. Typically, about one-tenth of frozen french fries are sold in supermarkets and other retail outlets. The vast majority move through various food service venues or the export market. Research in the early 2000s indicated that QSRs alone accounted for about two-thirds of french fry usage, with another 6 percent attributed to school cafeterias. The COVID-19 pandemic severely hobbled the food service sector, resulting in an abrupt slowdown in french fry demand. In addition, exports of frozen potato products, which account for one-fourth of freezing potato utilization, remain well-below year-earlier levels. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Yearbook, March 2020.
Monday, June 29, 2020
In 2019, tomatoes for the fresh market, harvested by hand, were valued at $705 million, while sweet corn production, typically harvested by hand or machine, was valued at $652 million, and sweet potatoes, for which workers are required for machine operation and post-harvest handling, was valued at $588 million. The production of these and other vegetables grown in the United States may be affected by disruptions of foreign labor flows. An estimated 10 percent of all hired farm workers are foreign nationals employed on temporary work visas under the H-2A agricultural workers program. Restrictions that affected the issuance of new H-2A visas at U.S. consulates starting March 18, 2020, were relaxed on April 20, 2020, which may have alleviated shortages of available workers. H-2A application disclosure data through the second quarter of fiscal year 2020 revealed that a significant majority of the H-2A workers with job start dates of mid-March or later had been hired as laborers for asparagus, sweet potatoes, sweet corn, cucumbers, and tomatoes. These five vegetable commodities, therefore, are among those most likely to be affected by a short-term reduction in the inflow of H-2A workers. Together, these vegetables accounted for 12 percent of the total production value of U.S. vegetables in 2019. This chart is based on the Economic Research Service’s Vegetables and Pulses Outlook reports and H-2A application disclosure data from the Department of Labor.
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
COVID-19-related stay-at-home orders have shifted the places where consumers obtain a large share of their meals and snacks. Foods bought in grocery stores have replaced meals and snacks previously eaten in restaurants, college dining halls, school cafeterias, sports venues, and other eating-out places. Results from a 2016 Economic Research Service (ERS) study indicate this shift in where Americans obtain their foods is likely to affect the marketing and consumption of specific vegetables differently, depending on what share of a vegetable’s total consumption is obtained in away-from-home eating places and whether that share has changed over the last decade. In 2007-08 (the latest food-intake survey used in the 2016 study), Americans obtained 36.6 percent of their vegetables away from home. Lettuce and potatoes had the highest away-from-home shares at 47.2 and 45.6 percent, respectively. Green peas and sweet corn had the lowest away-from-home shares of the vegetables examined—just 20 percent of these vegetables were obtained at away-from-home eating places in 2007-08. ERS researchers used national survey data on foods eaten and where they were acquired to disaggregate 63 commodities in ERS’s Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data system into two broad categories: food at home (foods obtained at grocery stores, supercenters, and other retailers) and food away from home (foods obtained at away-from-home eating places). ERS’s loss-adjusted food availability data take per capita supplies of food commodities in all forms—fresh, canned, frozen, and dried—available for human consumption. The data adjust for some of the spoilage, plate waste, and other losses in grocery stores, restaurants, and homes. The data in this chart appear in the 2016 ERS report, U.S. Food Commodity Availability by Food Source, 1994-2008.
Friday, May 29, 2020
Demand for salsa, in its many forms, has grown steadily for decades in the United States, and now has taken a place among the top selling condiments along with such stalwarts as ketchup and mayonnaise. Research has shown that the demand for Hispanic cuisines along with rising incomes form the core of salsa demand as consumers find favor with various Mexican-style restaurants and grocery store entrees. In the United States, salsa is commonly regarded as a red, tomato-based sauce that can include almost any vegetable or fruit, the most popular of which are onions, peppers, and garlic. In 2019, per capita supplies of tomatoes, onions, bell peppers, chili peppers, and garlic available for Americans to eat totaled 129 pounds—some of which ended up in salsa. Although the per capita availability of tomatoes for processing (65 pounds) triples that of fresh-market tomatoes, the per capita availability of fresh-market tomatoes has steadily risen since 2000 to 20 pounds in 2019. Year-round supply of fresh tomatoes in grocery aisles is satisfied by domestic field-grown tomatoes, the expansion of imports, and the rising availability of greenhouse-grown tomatoes. Per capita availability of bell peppers and chili peppers has also grown modestly over the last two decades in the United States. This chart is drawn from the Economic Research Service Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, published in April 2020.
Friday, February 14, 2020
At $64.7 billion, specialty crops comprised one-third of U.S. crop receipts and one-sixth of receipts for all agricultural products in 2017. Many specialty crops are labor-intensive in production, harvesting, or processing. For example, harvest often requires workers to accurately distinguish ripe and unripe fruits and vegetables and gently pick, sort, or package the fruit or vegetable by hand without damage. A long-term decline in the supply of farm labor in the U.S. has encouraged producers to select less labor-intensive crops, invest in labor-saving technologies, and develop strategies to increase labor productivity. A number of USDA programs support the development and use of automation or mechanization in the production and processing of U.S. specialty crops. From 2008-2018 these programs in the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), the Agricultural Research Service (ARS), and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) funded $287.7 million toward 213 projects to develop and enhance the use of automation or mechanization in specialty crop production and processing. Projects covered a broad spectrum of technologies, including job aid and machinery automation; machine learning and data analysis; mechanical harvesting and processing; precision agriculture; remote sensing and drones; and sensors. Each of the USDA programs are designed differently to achieve unique objectives, although each program addresses the development and use of automation or mechanization in specialty crops in some form. The data in this chart are available in the February 2020 ERS report, Developing Automation and Mechanization for Specialty Crops: A Review of U.S. Department of Agriculture Programs.
Monday, February 3, 2020
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that annually, over $161 billion of food at the retail and consumer stage of the supply chain goes uneaten. Food loss also occurs on farms and in the pre-retail distribution channels—the Food and Agricultural Organization estimated 30 percent of losses in fruits and vegetables occur in these earlier stages. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) recently examined the substantial role that expected costs, revenues, and risks play in food loss at the pre-retail level. Factors influencing food loss include price volatility: for example, vegetables have exhibited a relative variation in price more than 20 times that of grains used for feed. When prices fall below the cost of production, it becomes unprofitable for growers to advance produce through the supply chain. Alternatively, when prices rise, growers harvest more intensively, and may have the incentive to send lower-cosmetic-quality product to market, which can then be subject to increased loss further down the supply chain. Other economic factors that influence the level of food loss include labor cost and availability, availability of cold-chain infrastructure, aesthetic standards, consumer preferences, contract requirements, and policies related to the harvest and marketing of fresh produce. This chart appears in the recent ERS report, Economic Drivers of Food Loss at the Farm and Pre-Retail Sectors: A Look at the Produce Supply Chain in the United States.
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
The produce industry and commercial buyers (retailers, foodservice buyers, and produce processors) have been instrumental in pushing food safety practices forward. Retailers strive to ensure food safety while not having direct control over production practices. Many retail companies have turned to indirect means, using third-party audits, to make certain that the produce they buy is grown following certain food safety practices. In 1999, Safeway became the first U.S. grocery chain to require audits from its suppliers of “high risk” fresh produce. Many other retailers followed. Marketing orders—standards initiated by producers—began to emerge later as a means for specific commodity groups to provide assurance of safe practices to industry buyers and consumers. The California leafy greens industry in 2007 initiated the Leafy Greens Marketing Agreement (LGMA)—a voluntary program that requires participants to implement mandatory food safety practices, which include third-party audits—and many others followed. Retailer food safety requirements have shaped the current food safety landscape and will determine the extent to which the Food Safety Modernization Act’s recently implemented “Produce Rule” affects growers. This information grew out of ERS research, including the 2007 Amber Waves article, “Outbreak Linked to Spinach Forces Reassessment of Food Safety Practices.” This chart appears in the ERS report, “Food Safety Requirements for Produce Growers: Retailer Demands and the Food Safety Modernization Act,” released in April 2019. This Chart of Note was originally published April 4, 2019.
Monday, October 21, 2019
With Halloween approaching, many consumers spent the weekend searching for the nearest pumpkin patch. Pumpkin production is widely dispersed throughout the United States. All U.S. States produce some pumpkins, but according to the 2017 U.S. Census of Agriculture, about 62 percent of pumpkin acres were grown in only ten States. Illinois is consistently the Nation’s largest producer of pumpkins, the majority of which are used for pies and other processed foods. Pumpkin production from the other States surveyed annually by USDA is primarily destined for decorative (or carving) use. While 2019 production has not yet been surveyed, early feedback indicates an average year for Illinois and California with a healthy crop. Pumpkin growers in a few states have reported some challenges: Ohio faced a wet spring which made planting a challenge while Pennsylvania growers report extended periods of hot weather during the summer, which reduced the pollination of pumpkin flowers. Retail prices for pumpkins typically fluctuate from week to week leading up to Halloween. At the end of the first week of October, average retail price for jack-o-lantern style pumpkins was $3.42 per pumpkin compared to $3.32 for the same week in 2018. This chart is based on data appearing in the ERS Pumpkins: Background & Statistics topic page updated in September 2019.
Thursday, October 3, 2019
While Florida and California accounted for 76 percent of U.S. production of field-grown tomatoes in 2016, greenhouse production and use of other protected-culture technologies help extend the growing season and make production feasible in a wider variety of geographic locations. Some greenhouse production is clustered in traditional field-grown-tomato-producing States like California. However, high concentrations of greenhouses are also located in Nebraska, Minnesota, New York, and other States that are not traditional market leaders. Among the benefits that greenhouse tomato producers can realize are greater market access both in the off-season and in northern retail produce markets, better product consistency, and improved yields. These benefits make greenhouse tomato production an increasingly attractive alternative to field production despite higher production costs. In addition to domestic production, a significant share of U.S. consumption of greenhouse tomatoes is satisfied by imports. In 2004, U.S., Mexican, and Canadian growers each contributed about 300 million pounds of greenhouse tomatoes annually to the U.S. fresh tomato market. Since then, Mexico’s share of the greenhouse tomato market has grown sharply, accounting for almost 84 percent (1.8 billion pounds) of the greenhouse volume coming into the U.S. market. This chart appears in the ERS report “Unpacking the Growth in Per Capita Availability of Fresh Market Tomatoes,” released in March 2019. This Chart of Note was originally published March 8, 2019.