U.S. wheat supplies to tighten in 2014/15

U.S. wheat supplies are projected down 11 percent for 2014/15 (June/May marketing year), with beginning stocks, production, and imports all forecast lower than in 2013/14. Supplies for the new marketing year are expected to be the lowest since 2007/08. Production is forecast at 1,942 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2013/14, with lower area and yield for soft red winter wheat and drought-reduced yields in the Central and Southern Plains contributing to lower 2014/14 production. Total U.S. wheat use is forecast to fall 13 percent in 2014/15, as domestic use and exports fall due to tighter supplies and stronger export competition. Exports for 2014/15 are projected at 925 million bushels, down 255 million from estimated 2013/14 exports because of relatively large supplies with other major exporting countries. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year. The forecast season-average farm price range for wheat in 2014/15 is $6.35 to $7.65 per bushel, with a midpoint 1.9 percent above the 2013/14 price of $6.87 per bushel. Find additional analysis in Wheat Outlook: June 2014.