Food-at-home prices forecast to rise by 3.3 percent in 2025

Food-at-home (grocery) prices grew by 2.6 percent per year on average from 2005–24. However, yearly price increases varied based on food market dynamics such as production and demand, as well as national and global economic conditions. The USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts future price changes in the monthly Food Price Outlook data product. As of February 2025, prices for food at home are forecast to increase by 3.3 percent in 2025, slightly faster than the historical average. This predicted rate of increase is higher than in 2024 (1.2 percent) but below the 2023 price increase rate of 5.0 percent and the recent peak in 2022 of 11.4 percent. ERS publishes Food Price Outlook forecasts with a prediction interval, which represents the likely range of price variation, surrounding a midpoint, the most likely change. The current prediction interval for 2025 ranged from –0.2 percent to 7.0 percent for the food-at-home forecast in the latest edition of the Food Price Outlook, published February 25, 2025.