2018 winter wheat seedings are projected to be the lowest in 109 years

Winter wheat seedings—or seeds planted—for the next marketing year are projected to be the lowest in 109 years; however, the USDA estimate, based on 82,000 farmer surveys, generally exceeded industry expectations. Winter wheat seedings for the 2018/19 marketing year are estimated at 32.6 million acres, slightly below the 2017/18 seeding estimate of 32.7 million acres. In Kansas, the leading winter wheat producing State, planted area is up 200,000 acres for the 2018 marketing year. Planted area is also up slightly in Texas, though collectively, gains in these two States are not enough to offset winter wheat acreage losses elsewhere. Reduced profitability and agronomic factors, such as delayed seeding due to a late corn harvest, disease challenges, and below-average soil moisture levels, reduced winter wheat plantings in Colorado and Oklahoma. The current projection for 2018 is down less than 1 percent from 2017 and down 10 percent from 2016. Hard red winter wheat planted area is projected to total 23.1 million acres, a decline of 2 percent from 2017, while soft red winter planted area is forecast up 4 percent, year-to-year, to nearly 6 million acres. This chart appears in the latest ERS Wheat Outlook newsletter, released in January 2018.

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