Record U.S. soybean area, yield, and production are forecast

The 2014/15 U.S. soybean crop is forecast at 103.8 million tons (3.82 million bushels)—13.6 percent above the previous record set in 2009/10—based on the outlook for record area harvested and yield. The first USDA objective yield forecast for the 2014 crop indicates an all-time high of 3.05 tons per hectare (45.4 bushels per acre), 4.7 percent above the 2013/14 record. Harvested area is forecast at 34.02 million hectares (84.1 million acres), 9.7 percent above the previous record set in 2010/11. Higher supplies are forecast to raise season-ending soybean stocks to 11.7 million tons (430 million bushels), with the growing stocks forecast leading USDA to trim its 2014/15 forecast of the U.S. average farm price by 15 cents to $9.35-$11.35 per bushel. Seventy percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of August 24—a level surpassed only once for this date (in 2004). Favorable growing conditions have been widespread throughout the country, with record yields anticipated for Illinois, Ohio, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Find additional analysis in Oil Crops Outlook: August 2014.

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