Record soybean crop forecast to restore U.S. role as leading global exporter

With the 2014/15 (September/August marketing years) soybean production forecast at a record 103.4 million metric tons (3.8 billion bushels), the United States is expected to reclaim the role of leading global soybean exporter that it lost to Brazil in 2012/13. A record harvested area of 84.1 million acres is expected to enhance U.S. price competitiveness and boost U.S. soybean exports to a record 45.6 million metric tons (mmt). U.S. soybean meal and oil exports are also expected to increase, with soybean meal shipments abroad forecast to edge up to 10.66 mmt in 2014/15 from 10.57 mmt this year, and soybean oil exports could reach 0.95 mmt, up from 0.77 mmt in 2013/14. If achieved, the plentiful US supplies will drive farm prices lower. USDA forecasts the U.S. average farm price for soybeans in 2014/15 to fall within a range of $9.50-11.50 per bushel, down from an estimated $13.00 per bushel in 2013/14. The last time the U.S. farm price for soybeans averaged below $12.00 per bushel for a crop year was in 2010/11 when it reached $11.30 per bushel, a record at the time. Find this chart in the Oil Crops Chart Gallery, with additional analysis in the Oil Crops Outlook: July 2014.

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