Impact of 2012 drought on beef prices lower than expected

Meat prices were expected to rise sharply in the wake of the 2012 drought, but this has not been the case. Higher feed prices, due in part to the 2012 drought, prompted ranchers to reduce herd sizes and send more animals to slaughterhouses than usual. This influx of livestock caused cattle prices, and in turn wholesale beef and veal prices, to increase less in 2012 than in 2011, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI). In 2012, the cattle PPI and wholesale beef and veal PPI increased by 8.6 and 10 percent, respectively, below the increases of 22.1 and 15 percent in 2011. While retail prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), track changes in the PPI, the swings are typically smaller. The beef and veal CPI rose by 6.4 percent in 2012 versus 10.2 percent in 2011. More information on food prices can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product, updated November 5, 2013.

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