Farm sector profits forecast to fall in 2024

USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, to decrease by $5.7 billion (3.5 percent) to $158.8 billion in 2024. This would come after NCFI decreased $58.3 billion (26.2 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $222.9 billion in 2022. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to decrease by $9.5 billion (6.3 percent) to $140.7 billion in 2024. This reduction follows a drop in NFI of $42.8 billion (22.2 percent) in 2023 from an all-time high of $193.1 billion in 2022 (after adjusting for inflation). Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Despite these successive declines, if forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would remain above their 2004–23 averages in 2024. Among the drivers of decline in these income forecasts, cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $16.6 billion (3.1 percent) to $516.9 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. However, over the same period, a $19.2 billion (4.1 percent) reduction in production expenses is expected to moderate the overall decline. Find additional information and analysis on the USDA, Economic Research Service Farm Sector Income and Finances topic page reflecting data released December 3, 2024.

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