Simla Tokgoz

Research Agricultural Economist


Simla Tokgoz is a research agricultural economist in the Crops Branch in the Market and Trade Economics Division at the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).


Simla joined USDA, ERS in January 2022. Her research focuses on modeling and analyzing markets for agricultural commodities, biofuels, and energy—with a particular focus on the integration of agricultural commodities and energy markets. She also conducts research on supply chain issues in the U.S. agricultural sector and the transportation of agricultural goods.

Before coming to USDA, ERS, Simla worked at the International Food Policy Research Institute where her research examined agricultural value chains in developing countries, specifically measurement of policy distortions along value chains. She has also worked at Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University where she developed models of international grain and ethanol markets within the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling team.


Simla received her Ph.D. in Economics, with minor in Statistics, from North Carolina State University and her B.S. in Economics from Middle East Technical University.

Professional Affiliations

Simla is a member of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) and the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).

Selected Publications

Tokgoz, S., & Traore, F. (2023). Understanding E10 markets in the U.S.: Evidence from spatial data. Economic Analysis and Policy, 78, 1267–1281.

Mamun, A., Martin, W., & Tokgoz, S. (2021). Reforming agricultural support for improved environmental outcomes. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(4), 1520–1549.

 Tokgoz. S. (2019). The food-fuel-fiber debate. In D. Debnath & S. Babu (Eds.), Biofuels, bioenergy and food security (pp. 79–99). Elsevier Academic Press.

Tokgoz, S., & Majeed, F. (2019). Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives for value chain analysis: Evidence from Indian value chains. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 70(2), 275–292.

Laborde, D., Majeed, F., Tokgoz, S., & Torero, M. (2016). Long-term drivers of food and nutrition security. International Food Policy Research Institute Discussion Paper 01531.

Dodder, R.S., Kaplan, P.O., Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., Secchi, S., &  Kurkalova, L.A. (2015). Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy and the environment: An integrated modeling approach. Energy Economics, 51, 77–87. 

Yang, J., Zhang, W., & Tokgoz, S. (2013). The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global CGE analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(6), 1029–1042. 

Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., Dodder, R., Johnson, T., Kaplan, O., Kurkalova, L. & Secchi, S. (2013). Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment. Environmental Modelling and Software, 48, 1–16.

Yu, T., Tokgoz, S., Wailes, E., & Chavez, E. (2011). A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices. Food Policy, 36, 545–561.

Dumortier, J., Hayes, D., Carriquiry, M., Dong, F., Du, X., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., & Tokgoz. S. (2011). Sensitivity of carbon emission estimates from indirect land-use change. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 33(3), 428–448.

Elobeid, A., & Tokgoz, S. (2008). Removing distortions in the U.S. ethanol market: What does it imply for the United States and Brazil. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90(4), 918–932.

Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J.F., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D.J., & Yu, T. (2008, February 29). Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science, 1238–1240.

Tokgoz, S. (2006). Private agricultural R&D in the United States. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 31(2), 212– 238.