Food Price Outlook, 2025
Note: Effective April 2025, the Food Price Outlook will publish at 11:00 a.m. ET.
This page summarizes the March 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the February 2025 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.4 percent from January 2025 to February 2025 and was up 2.8 percent from February 2024. The CPI for all food increased 0.2 percent from January 2025 to February 2025, and food prices were 2.6 percent higher than in February 2024.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.1 percent from January 2025 to February 2025 and was 1.9 percent higher than February 2024; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent in February 2025 and was 3.7 percent higher than February 2024.
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise slightly faster than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.3 to 5.1 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 2.7 percent, with a prediction interval of -0.1 to 5.7 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.7 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.6 to 4.9 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the Russia-Ukraine war, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food price growth continued to slow in 2024, rising by 2.3 percent, as those factors combined with cooling labor pressures, lower energy prices, and changes in consumer demand. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024, lower than their historical average pace of growth, and food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent, slightly outpacing their historical average.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
The predicted increase in food-at-home prices in 2025 (2.7 percent) is near the 20-year historical average price change (2.6 percent). Factors that contribute to inflation across the economy also influence food prices, including interest rates, energy prices, labor market tightness, and consumer demand. Additional factors that affect food prices specifically can include seasonal trends, trade, plant and animal disease, and growing conditions such as weather effects on crops or animal feed.
Overall, prices for food-at-home rose by 0.1 percent between January 2025 and February 2025. From January to February, prices increased for 5 food-at-home categories, declined for 9 categories, and remained unchanged for 1 category. In 2025, prices are predicted to grow at above-average rates for eggs, sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and beef and veal, while fresh fruits are expected to grow at near-average rates. Prices for 10 other food-at-home categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Beef and veal prices increased by 2.0 percent in February 2025 and were 7.6 percent higher than in February 2024. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase in 2025 due to tight supplies and continued consumer demand. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 5.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -1.7 to 13.0 percent. Pork prices fell by 1.6 percent in February 2025 but were 1.8 percent higher than February 2024. In contrast to beef, pork production is projected to increase in 2025. Pork prices are predicted to decrease 1.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -7.2 to 4.8 percent.
Retail egg prices increased by 12.5 percent in February 2025, following increases of 13.8 and 8.4 percent in January and December, respectively. Egg prices in February 2025 were 58.8 percent higher than in February 2024. Retail egg prices continue to experience volatile month-to-month changes due to an outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. About 30 million commercial egg layers were affected by HPAI in January and February 2025, though HPAI detections in egg layers eased significantly in the first half of March. Wholesale egg prices declined sharply in March 2025, based on Daily New York Shell Egg prices tracked by the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, but changes in retail prices lag changes in wholesale prices. Egg prices are predicted to increase 57.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 31.1 to 91.5 percent. The Food Price Outlook forecasts the annual average change in prices across all months in 2025 compared to all months in 2024. It does not forecast the 12-month change from the forecast month. A portion of the estimated 2025 change is already captured in the price increases realized in January and February 2025.
In February 2025, dairy product prices fell by 1.0 percent but were 0.8 percent higher than February 2024. Prices for dairy products are predicted to decline by 0.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -4.9 to 3.6 percent.
Prices for fresh vegetables fell by 1.7 percent in February 2025, partially due to seasonal trends, after decreasing by 0.8 percent in January. Fresh vegetable prices were 2.5 percent lower than February 2024, led by lower prices for tomatoes. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to increase by 0.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -3.1 to 3.4 percent.
Prices for cereals and bakery products increased by 0.5 percent in February 2025, and prices were 0.3 percent higher than February 2024. Year-over-year price growth has remained below 1.0 percent for a full year due to easing prices for cereals and grains following peaks in 2022. Prices for cereals and bakery products are predicted to increase by 0.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -2.1 to 3.9 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
Prices for unprocessed agricultural products, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods trended up through much of 2024 into early 2025. However, price changes vary across product categories. In 2025, prices are predicted to increase for seven PPI categories and decrease for six categories. Greater volatility in farm-level and wholesale-level prices leads to wider prediction intervals for these products compared with retail-level products.
Farm-level cattle prices increased by 2.5 percent in February 2025. Prices for farm-level cattle were 16.3 percent higher in February 2025 than February 2024, as a result of tight cattle supplies from a cyclical contraction of the cattle herd. Wholesale beef prices have shown more moderate growth and were 9.5 percent higher in February 2025 than February 2024 with a decline of 1.9 percent in February 2025. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase 9.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -2.6 to 24.4 percent. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase 4.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -9.9 to 22.1 percent.
Wholesale pork prices increased by 7.9 percent from January to February 2025, reversing a 6.2 percent decline in January, and were 10.4 percent higher than February 2024. Pork prices are supported by strong export demand but are tempered by increased production. Wholesale pork prices are predicted to increase 4.7 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -9.6 to 22.0 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs rose by 53.6 percent from January to February 2025, the fourth straight month of increases, and following an increase of 31.4 percent in January. In February 2025, prices for farm-level eggs were 183.3 percent higher than February 2024. The PPI for farm-level eggs captures the prices paid to producers for their products; these products are bought and sold earlier in the food supply chain and are more volatile than prices paid by consumers in retail stores. Farm-level egg prices continued to experience large monthly changes as the ongoing HPAI outbreak continued to affect egg-layer flocks. However, confirmed detections of HPAI in egg layers eased significantly in March after peaking in January. Daily New York Shell Egg prices tracked by the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service declined sharply in March 2025, which suggests moderation in future PPI farm-level egg prices if HPAI cases remain low. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 164.0 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 47.6 to 440.7 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Prices for farm-level milk rose by 4.4 percent in February 2025, and prices were 22.1 percent higher than February 2024 on strong demand. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to increase by 10.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -11.4 to 42.8 percent.
In February 2025, prices for farm-level fruits increased by 4.0 percent and were 16.2 percent higher than February 2024. Prices for farm-level vegetables rose 6.0 percent, after declining 22.3 percent in January, and were 16.3 percent below February 2024. Farm-level fruit and vegetable prices can undergo large month-to-month swings based on weather, production, and seasonality. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to increase by 11.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -2.7 to 29.0 percent. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to decrease by 6.7 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -24.1 to 16.0 percent.
Farm-level wheat prices rose 4.4 percent in February 2025 but were 3.8 percent lower than February 2024. After prices peaked in the first half of 2022 following the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, farm-level wheat prices declined steadily before leveling off in the second half of 2024. After large price decreases in 2023 and 2024, changes in farm-level wheat prices are predicted to moderate in 2025. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 1.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -19.8 to 23.1 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.