Summary Findings
Food Price Outlook, 2024
This page summarizes the June 2024 forecasts, which incorporate the May 2024 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.2 percent from April 2024 to May 2024 and was up 3.3 percent from May 2023. The CPI for all food increased 0.1 percent from April 2024 to May 2024, and food prices were 2.1 percent higher than in May 2023.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI was unchanged from April 2024 to May 2024 and was 1.0 percent higher than May 2023; and
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent in May 2024 and was 4.0 percent higher than May 2023.
Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.2 to 3.2 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.0 percent, with a prediction interval of -0.4 to 2.5 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.6 to 4.8 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the workbooks) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data, the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged: while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this difference.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second-half of the year. No food categories tracked by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) decreased in price in 2021 compared with their prices in 2020.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices, along with the conflict in Ukraine, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs. All food price categories increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent. Food price growth slowed in 2023 as economy-wide inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.1 percent. While prices increased for all food categories except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
From April to May 2024, prices increased for nine food-at-home categories, declined for five categories, and remained stable for one category. Prices were lower in May 2024 than May 2023 for three food-at-home categories: fish and seafood, dairy products, and fresh fruits. Prices are predicted to increase in 2024 for 13 food-at-home categories and decrease for 2 categories, though the measures of uncertainty do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices during the year for most categories. In 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Pork prices increased by 1.4 percent in May 2024 and have increased for three straight months following higher wholesale pork prices in early 2024. Pork prices have risen 2.6 percent since May 2023 after declining on average in 2023. Pork prices are predicted to increase 1.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.6 to 4.7 percent.
Retail egg prices decreased by 2.4 percent in May 2024. An outbreak of HPAI that began in 2022 contributed to elevated egg prices by reducing the U.S. egg-layer flock. After egg prices peaked in January 2023, they declined or stabilized through much of 2023. However, new confirmations of HPAI in egg layers beginning in November 2023 drove price increases in late 2023 and early 2024. Prices in May 2024 were 3.0 percent higher than those in May 2023, when prices were dropping following the initial outbreak of HPAI. Price impacts of the ongoing outbreak will be monitored closely. Egg prices are predicted to increase 0.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -7.6 to 9.5 percent. This wide prediction interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.
Prices for dairy products declined by 0.3 percent in May 2024 and were 1.0 percent lower than May 2023. Dairy products have slowly declined on average since peaking in February 2023 and are one of two categories predicted to decrease in price in 2024. Prices for dairy products are predicted to decrease 1.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -2.9 to 0.8 percent.
Prices decreased by 0.3 percent for fresh vegetables in May 2024. Fresh vegetable prices were 0.8 percent higher than May 2023. Fresh vegetables are predicted to experience slower price growth than many categories in 2024, continuing a similar trend from 2022 and 2023, due partially to lower input prices. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to increase 1.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -1.7 to 3.8 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages fell by 0.6 percent, and prices for sugar and sweets were unchanged in May 2024 compared with April 2024. Although price growth has slowed for these categories in recent months, sugar and sweets and nonalcoholic beverages are the two food-at-home categories that are predicted to outpace their historical average growth rate in 2024. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase 3.8 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 2.0 to 5.6 percent. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of 1.0 to 4.2 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that it reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, processed foods and feeds, and finished consumer foods. These farm- and wholesale-level prices give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the downstream CPIs. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
USDA, ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2024, prices are predicted to increase for seven PPI categories and decrease for six categories, though the measures of uncertainty for many PPI categories do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices in 2024. Greater volatility in farm- and wholesale-level prices lead to wider prediction intervals for these products compared to retail-level products.
Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 33.6 percent in May 2024 after increasing by 7.9 percent in April. The ongoing HPAI outbreak continues to affect egg-layer flocks, with volatile effects on prices. In May 2024, prices for farm-level eggs were 97.6 percent higher than May 2023, when prices reached a low following the initial onset of HPAI in 2022. The effects of recent HPAI cases on farm-level egg prices will be closely monitored. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 2.7 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -22.5 to 55.0 percent. Egg prices are the most volatile category tracked by USDA, ERS, leading to a wide prediction interval.
Farm-level milk prices decreased by 3.8 percent in May 2024 and were 2.2 percent higher than May 2023. Wholesale dairy prices rose by 1.7 percent in May 2024 and were 2.1 percent higher than May 2023. Farm-level milk prices are predicted to decrease 3.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -13.5 to 10.2 percent. Wholesale dairy prices are predicted to increase 1.8 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -3.1 to 7.1 percent.
Prices for farm-level wheat rose by 18.3 percent in May 2024, and wholesale wheat flour prices increased by 4.8 percent. Despite increases in May, farm-level wheat and wholesale wheat flour prices were 14.0 percent and 7.2 percent lower, respectively, than May 2023. After peaking in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, prices for both farm-level wheat and wholesale wheat flour fell steadily throughout 2023 and the first few months of 2024. While prices increased in May due to expectations of tighter global wheat supplies, prices are still predicted to be lower on average in 2024 compared to 2023. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 12.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -23.1 to 1.6 percent. Wholesale wheat flour prices are predicted to decrease 4.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -9.3 to 0.7 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see USDA Economic Research Service Outlook publications including Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets.