Food Price Outlook, 2025 and 2026
This page summarizes the September 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts, which incorporate the August 2025 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.
Consumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was up 2.9 percent from August 2024.
Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Food prices in August 2025 were 3.2 percent higher than in August 2024.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
- The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 2.7 percent higher than in August 2024.
- The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 3.9 percent higher than in August 2024.
Economic Research Service (ERS) September 2025 Forecast
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise faster than the historical average rate of growth. In 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.6 to 3.4 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 2.4 percent, with a prediction interval of 1.8 to 2.9 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.9 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.6 to 4.1 percent.
In 2026, overall food prices are expected to increase more slowly than the historical average rate of growth. In 2026, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.7 percent, with a prediction interval of -1.8 to 7.5 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 2.3 percent, with a prediction interval of -4.3 to 9.6 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 3.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.7 to 5.8 percent.
The Food Price Outlook tracks and forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year, compared to all months in the previous year. The Food Price Outlook does not forecast the 12-month year-over-year change from the month of the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasting methods are based entirely on statistical models that are fitted to recent trends in the data. These methods provide prediction intervals that narrow over the forecast period as more data become available and the degree of uncertainty declines. Discussions of price changes focus on the midpoint of these forecast intervals (titled “Mid” in the Food Price Outlook data files) and use the lower and upper bounds of a 95-percent prediction interval—based on past data the annual level of inflation is expected to fall in this interval 19 out of 20 times—to reflect the level of uncertainty (titled “Lower” and “Upper” in the workbooks, respectively). For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see the article ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook.
Recent Historical Overview
Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explain this divergence.
In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices following the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly for meats and poultry, while food-away-from-home price inflation remained similar to its 2019 rate. In 2021, all-food prices increased 3.9 percent as prices began accelerating in the second half of the year.
In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent, faster than in any year since 1979. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. Food prices rose partly due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices. Other factors included the Russia-Ukraine war, which compounded other economy-wide inflationary pressures such as high energy costs.
In 2023, food prices increased by 5.8 percent as economy-wide inflationary factors, supply chain issues, and wholesale food prices eased from 2022. Food price growth continued to slow in 2024, rising by 2.3 percent, as those factors combined with cooling labor pressures, lower energy prices, and changes in consumer demand. Food-at-home prices increased by 1.2 percent in 2024, lower than their historical average pace of growth, and food-away-from-home prices rose by 4.1 percent, outpacing their historical average.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2025, overall food prices are predicted to rise 3.0 percent, faster than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (2.9 percent). However, food-at-home prices are predicted to increase at a slower rate than overall food prices. In 2025, food-at-home prices are predicted to rise 2.4 percent, slower than their 20-year historical average rate of price increase (2.6 percent). Changes in trade patterns, the incidence of plant and animal disease, and weather events that impact growing conditions can all contribute to retail food price changes. Factors that contribute to inflation across the economy are also important, including interest rates, energy prices, labor market tightness, and consumer demand.
From July 2025 to August 2025, prices declined for 5 food-at-home categories and increased for 10 categories. Some categories experienced large price swings, defined as a 1-month price increase or decrease of at least 1.0 percent. From July 2025 to August 2025, three categories, beef and veal, other meats, and fresh vegetables, experienced large price increases. No categories experienced large price decreases.
For all of 2025, prices for eggs, beef and veal, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth. Prices for nine other food-at-home categories are predicted to grow at a slower rate than their 20-year historical average. Prices for one category, fresh vegetables, are predicted to remain unchanged. Fresh vegetables are expected to cost about what they did in 2024. Prices for fats and oils are predicted to decline in 2025 compared to 2024.
From July 2025 to August 2025, retail beef and veal prices increased for the eighth month in a row. Beef and veal prices increased by 2.7 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and were 13.9 percent higher in August 2025 than in August 2024. The ERS Cattle & Beef - Sector at a Glance topic page reports that the U.S. cattle herd has decreased in size since 2019. However, according to analyses and forecasts reported in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, consumer demand has remained strong in the face of tighter supplies. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 11.6 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 9.5 to 13.8 percent.
Pork prices rose 0.2 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and were 1.2 percent higher than in August 2024. Pork prices are predicted to increase 1.4 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -0.1 to 3.0 percent.
Poultry prices decreased by 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 but were still 1.7 percent higher in August 2025 than in August 2024. Poultry prices are predicted to increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 0.9 to 3.0 percent.
From July 2025 to August 2025, retail egg prices decreased for the fifth month in a row. Egg prices fell 0.2 percent between July and August after having fallen by 3.4 percent from June to July, 10.8 percent from May to June, 7.5 percent from April to May, and by 10.5 percent from March to April. Egg prices in August 2025 were still 10.9 percent higher than in August 2024. Retail egg prices have risen due to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022. HPAI contributes to elevated egg prices by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production. In April 2025, confirmed cases of HPAI tapered, according to the May 2025 ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. The number of confirmed detections subsequently remained low compared with earlier in the year. Egg prices are predicted to increase 24.8 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 19.5 to 31.4 percent. This includes price increases already realized from January through March 2025. Even if retail egg prices continue to decrease over the coming months, higher prices realized earlier in the year will continue to factor into the forecast. The Food Price Outlook forecasts the annual average change in prices across all months in 2025 compared to all months in 2024. It does not forecast the 12-month change from the forecast month.
Retail fresh vegetable prices increased by 2.8 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and were 2.9 percent higher than in August 2024. Fresh vegetable prices have increased 4 months in a row after falling earlier in the year. During the first several months of 2025, fresh vegetable prices fell as markets recovered from unfavorable growing conditions in 2024. According to the December 2024 ERS Vegetable and Pulses Outlook, unfavorable growing conditions in 2024, including extreme weather in parts of California and Florida, contributed to notable increases in grower prices for key crops like lettuce, onions, carrots, and tomatoes. Though prices have been higher in some months of 2025 and lower in other months of the year, fresh vegetables are predicted to cost in 2025 about what they did in 2024, on average. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to remain unchanged in 2025, with a prediction interval of -1.3 to 1.3 percent.
Prices for sugar and sweets increased by 0.9 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and were 5.3 percent higher in August 2025 than in August 2024. Prices are up in 2025 primarily for candy and chewing gum, a subcomponent of the CPI for sugars and sweets that includes most types of chocolate candy. Prices for sugar and sweets are predicted to increase by 4.9 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 4.2 to 5.7 percent.
Prices for nonalcoholic beverages increased by 0.6 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and were 4.6 percent higher in August 2025 than in August 2024. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase faster than the 20-year historical rate due in part to higher global coffee prices. Prices for nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to increase by 3.7 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 3.0 to 4.5 percent.
Producer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)
A Producer Price Index (PPI) resembles a CPI in that a PPI reflects price changes over time. However, instead of retail prices, a PPI provides a measure of the average prices paid to domestic producers for their output. PPIs are reported for nearly every industry in the goods-producing sector of the economy. Three major PPI commodity groups are of interest to food markets: (1) unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs, (2) processed foods and feeds, and (3) finished consumer foods. The farm-level and wholesale-level prices of commodities in these groups give a general sense of price movements across various stages of production in the U.S. food supply chain.
The PPIs are typically far more volatile than the CPIs, which are further down the supply chain. Price volatility decreases as products move from the farm to the wholesale sector to the retail sector. Because of multiple processing stages in the U.S. food system, the CPI typically lags movements in the PPI. The PPI is thus a useful tool for understanding what may soon happen to the CPI.
ERS does not forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds. However, these prices have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
In 2025, prices are predicted to increase for six PPI categories and decrease for seven categories. Prediction intervals for these forecasts are large compared with prediction intervals for retail-level food products due to greater volatility in farm-level and wholesale-level prices.
Farm-level cattle prices rose by 2.0 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Farm-level cattle prices were 26.5 percent higher in August 2025 than in August 2024, driven by tight cattle supplies from a cyclical contraction of the cattle herd. After increasing 2.6 percent from July 2025 to August 2025, wholesale beef prices were also 21.1 percent higher than in August 2024. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase 22.5 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 18.2 to 27.3 percent. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase 12.0 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 6.1 to 18.9 percent.
Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 22.8 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Confirmed detections of HPAI in egg layers have eased significantly since February 2025. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 36.7 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of 23.4 to 61.3 percent.
Prices for farm-level milk rose by 0.6 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Farm-level milk prices were still 2.9 percent lower in August 2025 than in August 2024. In 2025, prices are predicted to decrease as milk production increases. Prices for farm-level milk are predicted to decrease by 1.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -6.7 to 5.3 percent.
From July 2025 to August 2025, prices for farm-level vegetables fell 15.1 percent after rising 38.9 percent from June to July. Farm-level vegetable prices can undergo large swings based on weather, production, seasonality, and other factors. Farm-level vegetable prices were 3.6 percent lower in August 2025 than in August 2024. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to decrease by 14.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -20.9 to -5.3 percent.
From July 2025 to August 2025, prices for farm-level fruits fell 5.0 percent. Farm-level fruit prices, like those for farm-level vegetables, can undergo large swings based on weather, production, seasonality, and other factors. Prices for farm-level fruits were 7.2 percent lower in August 2025 than in August 2024. Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to decrease by 5.2 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -9.0 to -0.9 percent.
In August 2025, prices for farm-level wheat fell by 4.9 percent from July 2025 and were 7.0 percent lower than in August 2024. Prices peaked in the first half of 2022 following the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. They then declined steadily before leveling off in the second half of 2024. After decreasing by 23.1 percent in 2023 and by 22.3 percent in 2024, farm-level wheat prices are expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025. Farm-level wheat prices are predicted to decrease 11.1 percent in 2025, with a prediction interval of -15.6 to -5.5 percent.
For official USDA farm-level price forecasts, see the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at a Glance report. For additional information, detailed explanations, and analyses of farm-level prices, see ERS outlook publications including the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Oil Crops, Wheat, Fruit and Tree Nuts, and Vegetables and Pulses reports.
See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets that include recent price changes and forecasts of price changes for all categories discussed in this summary.